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Turns out I'm not crazy when I say 90% of my games are jungler coin flips

yangus Beef·11/5/2018, 1:51:31 PM·10 votes·2,414 views

I've always had the suspicion that my games are pretty much jungler coin flips, but for the first time I actually look at the data for my matches to determine if it's true. Methodology: I looked at my recent 50 ranked games. The jungler determined the game if their jungler won game with a significantly higher performance. Junglers with identical performances are rated inconclusive but still are added to the pool of data as games not determined. Games not determined means the jungler won while not having the better performance. My last 50 games are in low to high diamond (one of which included Imaqtpie, a famous streamer). There is a high range because for several games in a row I got the better jungler, allowing me to get from diamond 4 to diamond 2 in about 2 day. Recently I have fallen to diamond 3 due to inferior junglers. The data includes: 2 inconclusive, 5 games not decided by jungler, and 43 games decided by jungler. The most popular jungler during this period is Graves. This means 86% of my recent 50 games were decided by jungler, in part proving my point that junglers are extremely strong right now in terms of determining the fate of the game. I can however not say this with certainty, as the games were not randomly selected, and I'm only looking at the recent games (I cannot say that the entire season has been determined by jungler, although I have that suspicion as well.) However, since all of these games are solo queue games, the data does have some validity in my opinion. Solution: There must be blanket nerfs to junglers in the preseason, otherwise I will frankly stop playing ranked completely until such jungle nerfs come to fruition. Suggested changes: Reduced gold from jungle creeps until you have tier 2 jungle item. After tier 2 you actually get more xp and gold than before. Then revert change that makes it to where you get reduced gold and xp from lane minions if you're ahead in cs Increase damage of all jungle creeps Increase health of all jungle creeps Slightly decrease xp of all jungle creeps Remove hp gain from smite Remove heal from taking scuttle Decrease gold cost of tier 3 jungle items, increase gold cost of tier 2 jungle items. Increase cost of tier 1 to 400 gold. Decrease base stats of current hyper carry junglers such as graves and Evelynn. These champions should not be able to be the best early mid and late game. Increase their scaling to compensate (make the pick have actual trade offs.)

Comments: Thank you to any rioter who reads and considers my comments. I feel the base game is actually quite good right now; it's just the jungle and few mid champs that are making the game less fun right now in terms of competitive play. Riot criticized this as having too small sample size (not true) and having poor methodology due to being anecdotal (not true, because I'm studying and making a conclusion on my matches.) The only actual problem is that the match selection is non random.

13 Comments

Regulas11/5/2018, 3:35:34 PM7 votes

In order for something like this to be really considered there would be a need to dive in deeper as to things like when certain kills happened and what events they participated in. A jungle might have had no real impact on the game but had great stats because his team was winning. On the flip side I've equally had matches with terrible stats but the few assists were critical ganks that fed the lanes and ultimatly won the match.

I will also say that there is a big issue at lower tiers of people just not paying attention to river/wards or to their own lane position. 9/10 when a jungle is overbearing it's more to do with the players in lane pushing super aggressively, poor warding and over aggressive use of escape abilities then simply because the jungle is that spectacular. So while the jungle might have an excessive impact on victory, it's more to do with general lack of awareness and strategy by players then the raw power of the jungle itself.

Nyarlathοtep11/5/2018, 5:37:41 PM6 votes

Wait wat? Evelynn good early game? I think we play different lol.

NichtHurz11/5/2018, 5:39:34 PM5 votes

Really? As a jungler I feel more like it's a botlane coinflip. Botlane isn't too important right now, but it seems like there's always a bot lane being completely smashed, while the other one feasts on them. What the hell am I supposed to do more as a jungler, when I make their bot use all the summs and mine still dies without the enemy jungler even showing? Then you'll get them two kills, they still proceed to die.

It really feels fucking random to me. Either my botlane doesn't even need help and just permakills the enemies or my botlane feeds, even when they were four summs and two kills ahead. Same kinda goes for other lanes, but on botlane this feast or famine thing really seems to be crazy.

Emelie Cauchemar11/5/2018, 3:57:58 PM5 votes

Hashinshin lost over 1000 games this season due to a crap jungler. I'll let you figure this one out.

usul120211/5/2018, 4:43:03 PM5 votes

Any actual methodology here? Or are you just throwing out numbers to confirm a bias so you can state what you want nerfed about jungling?

Rexxiee11/5/2018, 4:46:24 PM4 votes

Jungle role needs hard nerfs, its just not even fun playing high elo games right now.

Literally the whole game in the hands of a single position player almost every game, not fun to play.

LordRedStone Nr111/5/2018, 3:06:23 PM4 votes

I really like your approach, but right now, you are just tossing some numbers around. Would be really interesting to see a list with your games, and what made you classify some games as carried by the jungler, and others not.

ModKnightsKemplar11/5/2018, 6:13:49 PM3 votes

Methodology: I looked at my recent 50 ranked games. The jungler determined the game if their jungler won game with a significantly higher performance. Junglers with identical performances are rated inconclusive but still are added to the pool of data as games not determined. Games not determined means the jungler won while not having the better performance.

This isn't nearly detailed enough to answer this question. By the time the end-game stats roll around, of course the winning jungler is going to have better stats. A lot of that is the consequence of the snowball that happens after they started winning.

I want to know how you're sure that the jungler got your team to that position. If you're just looking at end game stats, all that's going to tell you is whether or not the winning team's jungler really, really sucked or not. Because if he won, and his stats are better than the opposing jungler, all that means is that he didn't get his ass carried.

XarlesNoriac11/5/2018, 3:00:15 PM3 votes

The suggested changes looks a bit harsh to do all at once, if riot were to do something like this they would just do small changes at first, like probably changing the gold cost or gold gains first or just general jungle champ changes. Personaly i would like to see something done to the jungle but nothing this large right away.

Sex With Annie11/5/2018, 4:23:25 PM3 votes

the heal from smite needs to go, you can basically jungle with anything and never have to back because you get so much free sustain from just pots and smite. Also adds too many variables in a fight. Oh you beat a kayn half to death in a close fight? too bad he smited crab and got 150 health back. How were you supposed to know? unlucky :)

hewhodoesnotcare11/5/2018, 5:45:58 PM3 votes

When riot is planning to nerf jungle I can see why only amateur plays jungle lol. Go and put on fill ur get jungle more times then support now

Who Fed Ru11/5/2018, 2:02:31 PM3 votes

Problem is the moment you make it that jungle doesn't have the most impact by far jungle mains start crying again.