TLDR at bottom.
Population of continental states affected by the move,
Worse Ping
Washington 7,061,530
Oregon 3,970,239
California 38,802,500
Idaho 1,634,464
Nevada 2,839,098
Arizona 6,731,484
Utah 2,942,902
Montana 1,023,579
Wyoming 584,153
Colorado 5,355,866
New Mexico 2,085,572
TOTAL 73031387
Better Ping
Maine 1,330,089
Vermont 626,562
New Hampshire 1,326,813
Massachusetts 6,745,408
Rhode Island 1,055,173
Connecticut 3,596,677
New Jersey 8,938,175
Maryland 5,976,407
Delaware 935,614
Virginia 8,326,289
West Virginia 1,850,326
North Carolina 9,943,964
South Carolina 4,832,482
Georgia 10,097,343
Florida 19,893,297
New York 19,746,227
Pennsylvania 12,880,580
Ohio 11,594,163
Kentucky 4,413,457
Tennessee 6,549,352
Alabama 4,849,377
Mississippi 2,994,079
Michigan 9,909,877
Wisconsin 5,757,564
Illinois 12,880,580
Minnesota 5,457,173
Iowa 3,107,126
Missouri 6,063,589
Arkansas 2,966,369
Louisiana 4,649,676
North Dakota 739,482
South Dakota 853,175
TOTAL 200709035
Around Same Ping
Nebraska 1,881,503
Kansas 2,904,021
Oklahoma 3,878,051
Texas 26,956,958
TOTAL 35620533
Assuming 1 out of 10 people play LoL:
- 7303139 players will be affected negatively with between a 20-60 ms increase
- 20070904 players will be affected positively with between 20-120 ms decrease
- 3542053 players will stay at around the same ping
Assuming 1/2 of players in the least affected states pick east or west:
- West coast would have 21241931 players
- East coast would have 8474116 players
Percentage of players per tier from http://www.lolsummoners.com/stats
Bronze - 27.43
Silver - 41.67
Gold - 20.35
Platinum - 8.34
Diamond - 2.15
Master - 0.04
Challenger - 0.02
This part assumes 70% ranked participation
Total players in ranked and per division
WEST - 14869352
Bronze - 4078663
Silver - 6196059
Gold - 3025913
Platinum - 1240103
Diamond - 319691
Master - 5948
Challenger - 2974
EAST - 5932881
Bronze - 1627389
Silver - 2472232
Gold - 1146291
Platinum - 494802
Diamond - 127557
Master - 2373
Challenger - 1187
CURRENT MODEL
Total Players - 20802233
Bronze - 5706052
Silver - 8668291
Gold - 4172204
Platinum - 1734905
Diamond - 447248
Master - 8321
Challenger - 4161
There are 2735410 more players in the silver division alone, compared to all the east coast players if there were separate servers.
Now if you take into account things like mmr, the fact that players are not all on at the same time, and solo/team ques you can easily see how gold + players on an east coast server would have a very small pool of enemies that the game would match them with compared to the current model.
As it is now, Platinum and Diamond players can have a 20-30 min que time, if you remove over half the potential opponents, that timer goes up dramatically. With separate servers you would see around 20 min que times in gold, as there more players in Platinum currently, than there would be in gold on a separate East coast server. 1734905 currently in Platinum, vs 1146291 in gold on a second server. As you go up in rank the que times would only get worse.
EDIT since people were bringing up DOTA que times while I was getting population data/doing the math/posting all this
I play both, my que times in LoL for a random blind draft, are about 30 seconds to a minute.
The same que on DOTA, is usually at least 5 minutes, and can be up to 10 minutes.
Also if I missed any states, I am from Canada, so I was just looking at a map, and seeing what states were closer to California vs Michigan on the west cost side, so my stats are close, but not perfect. I also did not add a data from the Canadian population, but pretty much everyone here will get better ping, aside from British Columbia, and the southern parts of Alberta/Saskatchewan.
Yes I was exaggerating at the bronze que times, but you would get much higher que times even in bronze/normals. I wouldn't even want to think about the time it might take to get a support in team builder since it can take 10 + minutes now. This would also affect que times for accounts pre 30, 1-5 would probably be ok as the game would still be trying to place you. 5-30 would take alot longer as a smurf, and marginally longer as an actual new player.
2nd EDIT, apparently only 27 million people play world wide. This lowers the number here dramatically, but the underlying math is still the same, except there would only be about 20-30% of the number of players I used. This means there would only be around 34389 players in gold on the east and 1068 players in master/challenger combined. If there were around say 400 challenger/master players on at a given time, that would be 40 potential games, and if each game lasted 45 min there could only be 2 outcomes.
- MMR is taken into account, and you end up waiting for a long time for a team that is around your mmr to not be in a game.
- MMR is taken into account but to a lesser degree in an attempt to lessen que times, This would result in you playing against the same teams repeatedly as most of the other teams would already be in a game and the game would match you with whoever was free, eg the team that you just played against.
TLDR: If I lived on the West Coast, I would much rather put up with a marginal ping increase and increased server stability vs potentially doubling or tripling my que times.