Say I own 60 champs. That means the odds of getting the same one twice in a row is 1/60 multiplied by 1/60 which is 1/3600. Yet this happens alllll the time. The algorithm is terrible. Not even close to random.
MysterQ3 votesWhen you get Trynd. Then dodge and get Trynd again.
NinjaGuy692 votesSay I own 60 champs. That means the odds of getting the same one twice in a row is 1/60 multiplied by 1/60 which is 1/3600. Yet this happens alllll the time. The algorithm is terrible. Not even close to random.
It isn't really 1/3600 because there are several things that need to be considered:
I'm sure the code for the ARAM algorithm is pretty crazy, but because of all the external factors that you can't control, it won't ever truly be random.
ohboyimmaPOOP1 votesIt isn't really 1/3600 because there are several things that need to be considered:
- The champions you own.
- The champions you don't own.
- The champions your teammates and the enemy team own or don't own.
- Which free week champions are available to play (because you can roll them in ARAM).
I'm sure the code for the ARAM algorithm is pretty crazy, but because of all the external factors that you can't control, it won't ever truly be random.
But 1 and 2 I accounted for in my math. 3 applies but doesn't change the math substantially enough to defeat my point. 4 actually makes the odds smaller of getting the same champ sequentially, not higher.
rework trundle1 votesYou have 1/3600 chances of getting x champion twice in a row, but 1/60 chances to get the same champion twice in a row. And you can RR, trade, or just accept that it happens in 1/60 or 1/3600 (depending on how you look at it) scenarios.
ohboyimmaPOOP1 votesI'm not sure if you said what you meant to say, but if so, that's not how statistics work.
The odds of getting any particular champ if you own 60 would be 1/60. The odds of getting that same champ again at some point is still 1/60. But to determine the odds of getting the same champ twice in a row without any other champ in between, you multiple the denominator by itself. 60*60=3600
And if you got the same champ 3 times in a row, 606060=216,000 which has also happened to me once.
Vacuum Chamber1 votesYour math is correct, but you are misinterpreting it. If you play two games of ARAM, the odds of getting Zac twice in a row are, as you say, one in 3600. However, the odds of getting ANY champion twice in a row are just 1 in 60 as the other poster stated. This is because, during the 1st game, there is a 1 in 60 chance of getting any of your 60 champions. That is, you have a 1 in 60 chance to get Zac. (You also have a 1 in 60 chance to get Ahri.) During the second game, you have a 1 in 60 chance of getting the SAME champion you had the last game. (That is, a 1 in 60 chance to get Zac again --- or, alternatively a 1 in 60 chance to get Ahri agian.)
1 in 60 times you expect to get the same champion in the second game as you got the first. 1 in 3600 times you expect to get a SPECIFIC champion in both games. Since you are only suprised at getting two champs twice in a row regardless of what champ it is, you should use the 1 in 60 figure not the 1 in 3600 figure.
I'm not sure if you said what you meant to say, but if so, that's not how statistics work.
The odds of getting any particular champ if you own 60 would be 1/60. The odds of getting that same champ again at some point is still 1/60. But to determine the odds of getting the same champ twice in a row without any other champ in between, you multiple the denominator by itself. 60*60=3600
And if you got the same champ 3 times in a row, 606060=216,000 which has also happened to me once.
ohboyimmaPOOP1 votes[{quoted}](name=Vacuum Chamber,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=etPEjPg0,comment-id=000100000000,timestamp=2017-11-13T17:32:46.781+0000)
Your math is correct, but you are misinterpreting it. If you play two games of ARAM, the odds of getting Zac twice in a row are, as you say, one in 3600. However, the odds of getting ANY champion twice in a row are just 1 in 60 as the other poster stated. This is because, during the 1st game, there is a 1 in 60 chance of getting any of your 60 champions. That is, you have a 1 in 60 chance to get Zac. (You also have a 1 in 60 chance to get Ahri.) During the second game, you have a 1 in 60 chance of getting the SAME champion you had the last game. (That is, a 1 in 60 chance to get Zac again --- or, alternatively a 1 in 60 chance to get Ahri agian.)
1 in 60 times you expect to get the same champion in the second game as you got the first. 1 in 3600 times you expect to get a SPECIFIC champion in both games. Since you are only suprised at getting two champs twice in a row regardless of what champ it is, you should use the 1 in 60 figure not the 1 in 3600 figure.
Oh wow. Thank you for explaining that. So since there is no specific champ that I'm concerned about, you kind of divide back down to account for the number of champs you would be concerned about receiving twice...in this instance 60, bringing you back to 1/60 after dividing into 3600. Ha...that's a trip. And the "lack of randomness" makes a lot more sense. Thanks again! Playing league of legends has officially improved my knowledge of statistics.
Hellmet1 votesGoogle Random and find out what Random really means. You could give the same champ 5 times in a row and technically it's still Random. :)
ohboyimmaPOOP1 votesAnd you could get the same champ 25 times in a row and it could still technically be random. I think you should read my complaint again, because my complaint is not that getting champs sequentially is never random.
Dead flag blues1 votesKinda the same case here, not the "same champ twice in a row", but I've noticed that each week, I tend to get the same picks a lot more times than usual, mostly the free champions given for said week (I own every single champion if you need to know)
Electric Ratt1 votesTrust me. Getting a Morgana on the enemy team 5 times in a row isn't fun.
KatanaNoTatsujin1 votesI keep on getting aatrox in ARAM not matter what the free champions are.