If ARAM is actually random, im 26 feet tall
literally play against the same broken champions in 80% of all aram games, riot must have their own high iq idea of what random means lmao
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This has been brought up a million times. Rito knows the solution but refuses to do it because...rito. The solution is allowing all champions to be played or adding bans into the mix (rito had bans for a minute and it solved most of the problems but then removed it cuz reasons). Rito won't do this because they want people to have ARAM only accounts because they might spend money on skins.
The almighty $$$$$ trumps gameplay.
No surprise there. If you ever played TFT you would know that Riot is simply unable to program RNG. They may not want it this way but It is over their head actually.
How much is your shopping bill at Big and Tall?
You might want to read up on the birthday problem. It deals with the incidence of duplicates in probability theory.
tl;dr - in a probability space of 365 days, it only takes 23 people chosen at random to have a 50% chance of having two of them having the same birthday.
I actually did an analysis of this on the PBE boards in relation to ARURF, but the same applies to ARAM as well.
NOTE: this is an idealistic view of the situation, where everyone has every champion. In PBE, everyone has access to all champions for ARURF. These numbers would significantly change (being more likely to see a duplicate) when people don't have all champions.
This is the formula to find the probability of seeing all unique champions in any given second game of ARURF/ARAM:
(1 - 10/150) (1 - 11/150) (1 - 12/150) ... (1 - (10 + x)/150)
Where x is the total number of rerolls used in the second game on both teams. This makes the odds work out to be:
- 0 rerolls: 36.10% chance unique, 63.90% chance of having at least one duplicate
- 10 rerolls: 6.05% chance unique, 93.95% chance duplicate
- 20 rerolls: 0.44% chance unique, 99.56% chance duplicate
You can see that rerolls have a HUGE impact on the odds of seeing at least one of the same champions from the previous game. Here's the full chart:
This is just the odds of seeing at least one duplicate for the second game. After about 3-4 games you have 99.99% chance of seeing AT LEAST one duplicate champion from the previous games.
Again this does not take into account players with limited champion pools, which would make it far more likely to see the same champions, game after game after game.
I been saying it for years.
ARAM is rigged to give you free to play champs more often than the champions you actually own.