Games are easily predictable. Learn to dodge. Here's my data.

I went ahead and made a blind test using op.gg. I've strapped all information relevant to a win from an user's page:

https://prnt.sc/qxqknp

(If you're interested in how to do it, go to an user's page, load the games and type these in the console:

$('.KDA').remove(); $('.GameItem').removeClass('Win'); $('.GameItem').removeClass('Lose'); $('.GameResult').remove();

-- it will strip all information that could give away whether a person lost or won.)

This ensure that I can't be biased beforehand and I get to judge simply based on their picks. My prediction-success rate is 86% in 90 analyzed games. It's hard to say how much this translates into higher elos, but I managed to get to D4 on my other account and played wih D2 people consistently -- I still made the same judgments.

The only extremely reliable metrics that you too can use to know if you should dodge and be right in at least 85% of the cases, because these are the only metrics I used are (in order of importance):

1. If a person is autofill, especially in jungle or as ADC.
2. If a person plays a new champion.
3. If a person plays a new role.
4. It the person's winrate is ~50% after a few dozen games on a particular champion.
5. Really 4.5 but if the person is playing a non-meta champion like Sett/Darius on top which have effective winrates of, I like to think, 80%+, since when they lose, they don't really lose because of them but rather their teams, then they're playing at a huge disadvantage and they're adding on top of the negatives of your team.

If you have at least 2 people like that, it's 99% a loss, if only one, about 80%.

Here are a few takeaways:

1. The enemy team also has these issues, as such, it's hard to give concise answers.

Armed with this and trying to gauge a person's state of mind in champ select, if they're on a loss streak, etc. can give you a very accurate picture of the outcome of a game.

Dodge.

Save yourself some time from people who have no respect for your time and first-time pick in ranked. Your MMR won't take a hit and you'll be happier in the long-term.