Predictions Regarding Runes Reforged
With Runes Reforged just arriving in the game, I think it's to be expected that the balancing is a little wild, and will continue to need adjustments over the coming weeks or even months. This is to be expected, as it happens every preseason. To some extent, I feel there's even some progress from the past few preseasons, since no champion has yet become so strong an outlier that they stand head and shoulders above the rest, as was the case with 4.20 Warwick. The current balance and pacing of matches may not be ideal, but I think this is nonetheless a step forward from the previous systems, and as such I feel Riot does deserve some appreciation alongside the criticism they're receiving (which is also largely deserved when it's constructive).
With that said, I also feel Runes Reforged is a system that is fundamentally flawed, and that will eventually have to make way for something new, for a few reasons:
#It's a system that will be quickly solved and stop offering diversity As with the old rune and mastery system, every champion is going to end up with an optimal build or two, and we're already seeing this with, say, Lethal Tempo Yi or Dark Harvest Evelynn. This whole system of choice is rapidly going to end up offering far less real choice than was promised, and within this new season we're eventually going to go back to another solved game.
#It's going to permanently warp the balance and design of champions as long as it lasts
As with the previous system's Keystones, these new runes are introducing effects that are going to have massive synergy with certain champions, who are going to have to be balanced around those, and thereby end up being weak without them. Moreover, though, many of the new Keystones "break" the rules of League, which is also going to affect future balance: on-hit effects, for example, are going to have to be balanced around being applied more than 2.5 times a second now, and it wouldn't surprise me if either those or Lethal Tempo got changed significantly because of it. In this respect, Riot isn't really making their job that much easier, as this system is going to make the rest of their balance work consistently more complex, more difficult, and thereby less clear. This leads to my following point:
#It's not going to be new player-friendly Already, many players are expressing confusion at the complexity of the new system, as every rune page hinges on around 6 separate minigames and a bunch of behind-the-scenes stat bonuses after that. In time, we may grow more familiar with the effects, but right now we are all collectively experiencing information overload from a large system of passive bonuses that isn't always conveyed all that clearly in-game. This is just for our own effects, let alone those of others, and is happening before we're even starting to see champions get balanced more harshly around these new runes. Imagine coming to this game for the first time, and having to memorize literal dozens of different mechanics before you can even take a look at the champion you want to play, who you then have to check online for which builds are optimal on them: Runes Reforged may not ask for new players to buy these stat bonuses, but its complexity is likely to overwhelm anyone trying League out for the first time, or even just returning from a long break, particularly since League's core gameplay also has a notoriously steep learning curve already.
#It's going to overlap heavily with items Already, we have many runes like Overheal, Cut Down, Ravenous/Relentless Hunter, Second Wind, etc. whose effects are already present on items, and in general the whole notion of gaining powerful gameplay effects is also the core function of itemization. Runes Reforged may have condensed two pre-game customization systems into one, but in the end we still have multiple different systems in place that largely achieve the same purpose, i.e. that of customizing your champion's playstyle via stats, passives and actives. I think one of the questions to ask here is what the new runes offer that items don't or can't, and while I may be wrong on this, I don't think there's any solid answer, at least not one we've heard from Riot (who also outright admitted that some rune effects were basically duplicated from existing items).
Perhaps I should make suggestions in another thread, but ultimately I feel the current signs are pointing to Runes Reforged probably running its course for this season, and perhaps even the next, before showing its flaws and requiring a new set of large-scale changes. As crazy as it may sound now, I think it would help to start shifting some of its non-Keystone effects onto items (if they don't exist in item form already) and away from runes, before then completing the transition with Keystones, and maybe even summoner spells after that (which need an update anyway). There's likely more improvement to be had with itemization as well, but ultimately I think Runes Reforged will end up offering a lot of power, but not so much real choice or additional gameplay of its own, and will therefore eventually need another overhaul.
