Just learned the secret to win streaks.....

FioraWillCarry·11/27/2019, 6:56:08 AM·1 votes·1,738 views

Know how everyone says that promos always gives you shit teams or after a win streak it puts you with shit feeders to get a lose streak? Well, it turns out there is actually a 3rd condition but this one gives you good teams.

I've noticed that on the condition that you win a game that you were supposed to lose, you get a good teams after that for quite a while. So if you get like a hardcore feeding shit garbage team that feeds double kills per minute and you actually win that, you will just start winning games. If you win a game that was like 7-26 by 15 minutes, then congratulations, you're gonna get like 7 good teams in a row after that. . . . . . . . .

Ok, I don't actually believe that match maker is rigged or any of that bullshit but I did notice this pattern a couple times the same way others tend to notice their promo games always get inted.

5 Comments

Kai Guy11/27/2019, 9:47:10 AM2 votes

Lets define a streak.

Universally in the context of league that's going to be a string of X consecutive games yea?

Now because its Consecutive, 1 is not a viable value to use. If you use 1 then there is nothing to follow it, its not a sting, its not "in unbroken or logical sequence." So. 2 games then becomes the lowest value you can have for a "streak". Reasonable logic right? We are working with # of games which are whole numbers. The number 1 is no good, does not meet the definition. But 2? That's the bare minimum. Now lets check reality. No one I have seen on the boards uses 2 games as streak markers Cuz its a really low fucking number. It just feels wrong right? Fits the definition but does not feel like it would be significant of anything yes?

So folks frequently use 3 games. Which... is the second lowest possible fucking number to use to match the definition of a streak. This is the next lowest value from 2 games. So tell me why does it magicaly become a good value in peoples heads?

Lets talk probability. We are looking at results of games. Win or loss are the only options.** On paper we can list every combination of possible results by a total # of played games. ** 1 game. 2^1 = 2 possible results. W Or L. No streaks. 2 games 2^2= 4 possible results. WW. WL. LW. LL. 2 streaks @2. 50% of the possible results are a streak. 0@3 as you have not even played 3 matches yet. 3 games 2^3= 8 possible results. WWW. WWL. WLW.LWW.LLW.LWL.WLL.LLL. @2streak. 6/8=3/4=75% of the possible results are streaks. For 3 games that's 2/8 or 1/4. 25%. 4 games. 2^4 = 16 possible results. WWWW.WWWL.WWLW.WLWW. LWWW.WWLL.WLWL.WLLW. LWWL. LWLW.LLWW. LLLW.LLWL.LWLL.WLLL.LLLL Now if we keep the 2 game thing then its only 2/16, but we also start to see double streak possibility here as well. Hell its just as likely to see 2 streaks, win 2 into loss 2, loss 2 into win 2. as it is to see 0 streaks wlwl or lwlw. both are represented as 2/16. So not only do you have 14/16=7/8=87.5% odds to see a streak... The odds of seeing a double streak are equal to the odds of seeing No streak.

Now if we did 4 games @ 3 for your streak value then you have 6/16=3/8=37.5% Not great but pretty close to 40%. Make it 5 games? you have 2^5= 32. 16/32 combinations include 3 game "streaks" so 50% odds.

Gets higher every time. Players don't do a good job accounting for their total # of games.

30 gets used as an arbitrary value in statistics a lot. 2^30 is 1,073,741,824 combinations. 50 Is a pretty reasonable # of games. That's 1,125,899,906,842,624 combinations. 2^100 for example has 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376 combinations.

[sg-lux-2] But people think 3 games in a row becomes is a value of relevance despite having over 250+ games played. I just don't get it.

Cõmega11/27/2019, 7:00:46 AM1 votes

From experience, all of this is false.

I get orangutans on my team every game.