Best Bans by Tier in Each Region (Patch 6.11): A Statistical Analysis - Fizz Edition
Before going into this patch's usual analysis, a huge special thanks to /u/gribblurk for making Best Bans look super spiffy now! Get three programmers together and you get something that looks decent but not swell, an error now properly mitigated! Thanks!
The way people choose bans is based heavily in frustration, popular opinion, and potential power. But these often lead to inaccurate choices to maximize the chances of winning.
So /u/Jonnyy9, /u/warwickofwallst, and I decided to make www.bestbans.com to calculate a ban list for each tier solely based on winrate, pickrate, and banrate which is partially added to pickrate.
Nothing else.
"As a rule of thumb, optimal ban strategy i.e. the strategy that maximizes your probability of winning is to ban champions that are both high win rate and high play rate. In reality, ban rate is not only a function of win rate and play rate, but also of perception of power, transparency of power, frustration, and risk-aversion. A few months ago when LeBlanc held the title of most banned, she was a suboptimal ban outside of Master/Challenger. Janna, statistically one of the best bans in the game, was banned in less than 1% of games."
The pictures are data from North America, Ranked. Data for any region may be found at the Best Bans website, and adjusted at the top right corner.
####These are what should be banned, not what are being banned.
####Ban rate is taken into account.
####Always look at your team's pre-picks when deciding a ban; some compositions handle particular champions better.
Full table of champions on www.bestbans.com
These pictures are only for NA. Data for most regions found on the site.
#Observations
Fizz arrives in three different tiers, ironically increasing in consistency as rank increases. Hey, remember this? And this? Somebody pick up the phone because I totally called it. Fizz has nerfs incoming on the PBE to increase the cooldown on early ranks of Playful/Trickers that will tune this down. It's interesting to see how these Influence metrics reveal the upcoming powerhouses, though Fizz is notable for how rapid the ascension was this patch, possibly a response to the outliers of the Mage Update finally being nerfed.
Swain was hit with a nerf this patch and it shows. They still appear in several top 12's and may require further tuning, though to be fair Swain's winrate has historically always been on the higher end.
Irelia seems to have benefited nicely from the Triforce update, now appearing in three different tiers (yes, three, for sure) different tiers. They don't take the top four in any particular area however, but if they don't receive any nerfs on the PBE, we may see them dominate next patch as Fizz gets nerfed.
Miss Fortune is the new ADC in town, with Lucian having lost their extremely dominant position after this patch's nerfs. Appearing in multiple top fours, Fortune is another caster marksman who can abuse items like Black Cleaver for earlier power spikes.
Blitzcrank.
Vel'koz is sneaking into Bronze after the latest change to their ult damage. Their winrate has increased noticeably, though falls sharply into Diamond.
Zed has found their lowest winrate yet in Bronze, though it's good to see that despite the nerf, their winrate hasn't tanked too much despite having lost a lot of their safe laning and poke presence.
Ekko has lost a huge amount of consistency, with all ranks kind of grouping together for a hug around the sweet -54 area (not top secret). It's tough to tell how much of this is an actual decrease in strength however; people are likely still building the former tank Ekko build and tanking Ekko's winrate (ha).
Volibear continues to trail alongside Blitzcrank has an undernoted power. Winrates of 54% and pickrates of 20%; on any other champion, it'd be considered insane. The meta continues to favor the bear and we will likely continue to see their dominance through the upcoming patch.
The list is what should be banned, not what is being banned.
Because the list is based on averages, the list is most useful when you know very little about either team or know little about compositions. Influence is defined as: How many times you will lose to a champion per 10,000 games compared to the average.
As with any bans, you only get the true benefit by making sure your team isn't intending to play the banned champion. Otherwise, you are denying the enemy team AND your team the chance of playing a consistent power.
The list does not show what is good, strong, or overpowered. It is an evaluation of which champions are the most consistent. To be consistent is different from being strong or good. It means a champion has both a good winrate and a good pickrate so that, on average, you will lose to the champion more often than you win against them.
Many champions are considered strong because their potential power is very high (Azir) but if people can't tap into that strength, then even a strong champ is inconsistent.
Similarly, even champions considered manageable or decent (Blitzcrank) can have extreme consistency that makes them worthwhile to ban.
#Why use these suggestions?
It bears repeating that the list isn't intended to replace specific banning, but is rather intended for use in an information vacuum. You should largely follow the list when you have little understanding of compositions or don't know what champions either team is running, a fairly common occurrence.
####Legitimate reasons for circumventing these suggested bans:
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The enemy can pick a champion that counters a composition your team has planned
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You know for sure yourself or your team is playing a champion that counters a suggested ban Zed isn't so scary when you know Malzahar is on your team
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There's a high chance the enemy team has a champion specialist who will be much weaker if their primary champion is banned
####Reasons to circumvent bans that are not legitimate:
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Because a champion is "overpowered." Bans should not be based on a champion's strength, but on their win consistency. Even if Tahm Kench could theoretically win 100% of the time with perfect play, that situation is so rare that it doesn't change that Kench wins only 46% of the time on average. Winrate reflects consistency, not strength.
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Because your teammates will be annoyed. Let’s assume that your teammates get ticked off every time Tahm Kench is picked by the enemies. Even with this “buff” caused by annoyed teammates, Kench still only wins 46% of the time. Let your teammates be annoyed; avoiding the ban is still likely the most statistically advantageous chance of success. Reconsider only if it not banning a champion is very likely to put a teammate on extreme tilt.
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Because a champion is annoying to fight. As annoying as certain champions are, if you're trying to maximize your winrate then it's still not a smart idea to ban them simply for being obnoxious. Most obnoxious champions have crippling weaknesses that cause their winrates and/or pickrates to be fairly low. Only if the frustration a champion causes is significant enough to impact your winrate should it even be a consideration.
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Because you want to ban champions from your own team. If your teammate pre-picks a champion, you can always look up your own teammates and see if their history on the champion defies the average. If your teammate doesn't pre-pick, then you deny the enemy team the same chance of picking the banned champion which will work in your favor regardless. ...also, the champions you think you should be banning from your own team Yasuo, Vayne, Zed, new champions aren't the right choices anyway.
#Methodology
All information is compiled over a four day average from op.gg. In specific regions, Lolking provides more accurate pickrate data per tier, and data is used from Lolking in those instances. The data is calculated every day around midnight GMT-7.
Influence is defined as: How many times you will lose to a champion per 1000 games compared to the average.
The Influence calculation is done as follows:
10,000 x (WR - 50%) x (PR / (100% - BR)
Thanks for reading! I hope you will find this useful.
