Why the seemingly negligible increase in winrate (2%) for First Tower Gold actually matters

So we've been seeing quite a debate recently about First Tower Gold and its impact on the game which is causing alot of frustration due to its power, and a paradoxically small increase in winrate from about 70 to 72%.

Last has been quite used alot recently do prove that the impact of the FTG is very low, but I do think an important point has been missed that could actually show the FTG has alot of influence to how game are decided.

And what is the point you may ask ?

Well, it is actually very simple:

The 70% winrate with old towers can be explained by the fact that tower werent focused. That looks weird at the start, but you have to think other objectives were focused since the first tower gave less gold and was bulkier, and less attractive to take. Taking a tower meant in most cases that you had an advantage, that you started to take their base down after taking objectives and a gold advantage.

Lets now look at Season 7: We have squichy towers and the first tower to fall gives a huge gold bonus to the team claming it. The team doing so has a 72% winrate, only a bit higher than earlier, but that is enough to make the difference. Why ? Because the first tower has become the most valuable early game objective out there. You now dont mostly destroy the tower to get to the enemy base like it was with previous seasons, but to claim a huge loot. That means a team claiming a tower is less likely to be the dominating team then before, because how contested in now is, but the team taking it still has a higher winrate as earlier, which shows that FTG has a really strong impact on the game.