Why does ranked keep us at 50% winrate?

An Draoi·10/9/2017, 4:35:48 PM·8 votes·12,175 views

Shouldn't we naturally approach a 50% winrate equilibrium when we get to a rank we deserve?

If I'm way better than bronze tier I'm obviously going to carry my games (except for a few when I play poorly) and then expect something like a 80-90% winrate.

As I rise through the ranks players become more skilled and failing to carry or being outplayed could contribute to losses, so my winrate should fall.

When it gets to about 50%, I shouldn't be climbing anymore anyway. I'll win about as many games as I lose, and assuming my MMR is constant, net LP change would be 0 and I'll stay roughly where I am.

Is this how it currently is? I've heard people in the past say that Riot specifically pairs you up with people depending on whether you've won or lost previous games to keep you at 50% winrate.

26 Comments

RiotMeddler10/9/2017, 5:57:54 PM15 votes

We don't take your recent games into account when matchmaking, just your current rating. If you're substantially better than your MMR reflects (e.g. Diamond player with Bronze MMR somehow) then you'll have quite a high winrate on average until you get to an MMR where you're facing more even opponents. Eventually as you say you'll probably end up with around a 50% win rate because you're playing people around your own skill level. We're not targeting 50% win rates for people, we're targeting getting their MMR/rank to the appropriate rating, which then tends to result in 50% winrates.

jwebb011310/9/2017, 4:39:19 PM4 votes

i dont think that Riot specifically pairs you up with people depending on whether you've won or lost previous games to keep you at 50% winrate.

the majority of your statement is closer to the truth ... that last lil question you ask is just the conspiracy theory people have that riot purposely wants people to fail

BALDG1VEN BOOMER10/9/2017, 5:04:28 PM1 votes

They don't specifically do this, they try to make sure the more wins you get is tied to a team MMR lower so when you go on a win streak you follow by a loss streak given you are in Bronze and deserve better than you'll climb out of Bronze easy with like 20-0 record, this has nothing to do with matchmaking and more about you're individual play.

Wasabi Kitty10/9/2017, 5:59:19 PM1 votes

That's basically how it works. Only thing is people think they should be higher than they are so when they start winning 50% of their games in Silver 4 they blame Riot for forcing them into a 50% win rate instead of realizing that's where they belong.

Leonerdo10/9/2017, 6:21:04 PM1 votes

The first half is correct, the last half not so much.

Matchmaking has nothing to do with your recent winrate (except that you should approach 50% whenever you reach the correct MMR and are getting accurate matchmaking).

I think you're missing the fact that when your MMR is higher than your rank (i.e. you're in Bronze, but your MMR "belongs" in Silver), then you will gain more LP when you win, and lose less LP when you lose. That way, even if you have a 50% winrate, you will still climb as long as your MMR is higher than your current rank suggests.

Paladin 0f Life10/9/2017, 6:32:10 PM1 votes

Im silver 5 rn but my last game I was the only one near my division and i demolished my laner on their main. Proceeded to carry and do the most damage on an AP bruiser. Checked ranks after match. And everyone was "above" my elo despite me carrying the heck out of the game. Moral of story is either low elo is complete garbage and/or matchmaking and ranked is a joke.

whyrawr10/10/2017, 3:04:01 AM1 votes

even through it feels like it is not true - I just climbed a bit and the thing was - one game I have a really good team and we win. Then I got into really bad team and no metter if you lose or win next game you get a good team again.

So it feels like more this way - 1 game - good team, next game - bad team. And the key thing here is to win the game with bad team - this will result in 3 win streak and climb. Idk why

Mysticman8910/9/2017, 4:40:59 PM1 votes

People (except at the very bottom of B5 and the very top of challenger) all approach 50% winrate for the reasons you said.

People who insist they're being forced to a 50% winrate due to matchmaking manually trying to 'force' it by giving them feeders or whatever are those experiencing negativity bias (i.e. they notice the games where their team feeds, but neglect the ones where the enemy fed), or are in denial about what mmr they 'deserve' before they level out at a 50% winrate (i.e. since they're not challenger, it must be their teams holding them back).