Statistically speaking, this is how many wins should be snowballs

• 20~25% of wins should be comebacks

• 5~10% of wins should be major comebacks

• ~20% of games should be pretty even back and forth, each team staying within a close gold gap

• 4045% of wins should be a **snowballing **through to the end

• A game should last about 30 minutes on average_ (I personally prefer 35-40 minute)_, with a **standard deviation of 5 minutes **

• First tower should be going down ~10 minutes into a game (I personally prefer it going down at ~13)

• Each champion should have an average of **[0.20kills/min + 4cs/minute] / X time **, if they have a higher amount of gold than that at the designated time, they are ahead, if not they are behind (such as having 10k gold by 20 minutes)

Go into your own statistics, and make a model of what the game should look like from a bigger perspective. None of these things are actual things that can be directly changed. So you have to look at what causes things to be higher/lower than they should be. Then balance macroplay around that. This has nothing to do with game balance, this is game structure. Things that take place before a match starts. Such as matchmaking and gold values.

Think of it like a coin toss. 50/50 you're going to be ahead at the beginning

50/50 if you're going to be ahead in the next "quarter" of the game

50/50 if you're going to be ahead in the next "quarter" of the game

and adding some humanization, like 50% increased chance of winning in the next quarter after winning the previous one

lowering 50% of snowballs to 40-45% so more games are enjoyable (opinion) etc, etc.

major comebacks would be 12% but I don't think a major comeback 12% of the time you win would make very many people happy for some reason