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PSA: If you deserve the rank you're in now, you will actually climb.

Killed Inaction·7/6/2017, 6:04:49 PM·5 votes·1,383 views

Crazy idea? Maybe. But statistically sound.

Riot made an announcement a while back (1.5 years or so, I believe) that said that trolls and toxic players make up less than 5% of the player base. For the sake of this idea, we will assume the actual trolls (intentional feeders, etc.) and players worse than their assigned rank make up 5.25%. You'll see why in a moment.

You have 4 teammates and 5 enemies. These are all randoms, assuming you're going solo. With a 5.25% chance of a troll or feeder in the game, that means that there will be one in every other game. But because you only have 4 teammates, that means 4/9ths of those, or 44.4%, will be on your team. The remaining 55.6% are on the enemy team.

If you deserve the rank you have, you'll gain LP for a win in the exact amount you lose for a loss. If 55.6% of the trolls and feeders are on the enemy team, that means that 52.8% of your games will have a feeder on the enemy team, whereas 47.2% will have a feeder on your team. Assuming all the other randoms are the same skill (and at the same MMR they will be, on average), you are the deciding factor. If you are average MMR, you will win 52.8% of your games. Because you gain the same LP for a win as you lose for a loss, you'll actually climb higher than you should, if only slightly.

This does not take into account standard deviations, or the possibility of 2 trolls in 1 game, etc. because overall, those don't affect the calculations.

All of this means that if you're hardstuck, so to speak, you actually deserve a lower rank, not a higher one. If you're dropping in rank, you are far below your MMR in terms of skill.

Don't blame your teams if you have a <50% win rate over 200+ games. They aren't the problem.

And with that said, peace. [slayer-jinx-catface]

21 Comments

Beas7ie7/6/2017, 8:35:38 PM2 votes

Just got out of a game where I was mid and struggled(I was Jarvan against Yasuo) but managed to hold my own(farmed under tower and didn't feed) but jungle fed every lane, and top fed nonstop, like INT, but of course, it was my fault and I deserve the loss. Yep, that seems about right.

Sir Yamazuki7/6/2017, 6:12:11 PM2 votes

The "trolls" and "inters" are more of misunderstandings and poor use of labels. Some people feeding aren't doing so intentionally initially or trolling. They're simply people tilting for what ever reason, or got auto filled, or are playing against one trick ponies while playing a champion they have significantly lower experience on.

BremerdanGorst7/6/2017, 8:56:55 PM2 votes

To be fair, that does imply that you're playing a ton of games for it to average out as such. Not everyone has that kind of time, so some of the people who complain may well have gotten worse teammates than the average. Probably not quite as many people as the number who think it's true.

PePsiLemoNN7/6/2017, 9:38:56 PM2 votes

Gl playing 300 games in every division to ''climb'' tho. Also you can't just asume everyone is of the same skill level in every game . And trolls/feeders/bad players aren't the only things that can lose a game.

Anastaecia7/6/2017, 6:23:31 PM1 votes

You are assuming that trolling/inting (5%) is the only way to lose a game for the wrong reason. You are also assuming that Riot accurately got this data. How would they know IF it is not reported? Furthermore, it's hard to prove either (hence why most bans are chat related).

The bottom line is this isn't the LCS where everything is perfect and you know the other players are all good and have no intention of actively losing. This is crap city where there are any number of a dozen reasons you could lose beyond bad play.

makkii7/6/2017, 6:46:00 PM1 votes

Technically this isnt true, rank is just a value of you relative to other players, "feeders and trolls" are players too. So regardless of where they are in your games, if you climb from say plat 5 to plat 3, then you "deserve" the rank of plat 3.

AMYS GRAVE7/6/2017, 9:32:48 PM1 votes

Don't blame your teams if you have a <50% win rate over 200+ games. They aren't the problem.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

Wanna do the standard deviation calculations?

With 100 million daily players how many games does everyone have to play in order to yield 50/50 odds that none of them have more trolls on their team than the enemy team? (hint, its way, way over 200)