Best Bans by Tier in Each Region (Patch 6.9): A Statistical Analysis - Malz Edition
The way people choose bans is based heavily in frustration, popular opinion, and potential power. But these often lead to inaccurate choices to maximize the chances of winning.
So /u/Jonnyy9, /u/warwickofwallst, and I decided to make www.bestbans.com to calculate a ban list for each tier solely based on winrate, pickrate, and banrate which is partially added to pickrate.
Nothing else.
"As a rule of thumb, optimal ban strategy i.e. the strategy that maximizes your probability of winning is to ban champions that are both high win rate and high play rate. In reality, ban rate is not only a function of win rate and play rate, but also of perception of power, transparency of power, frustration, and risk-aversion. A few months ago when LeBlanc held the title of most banned, she was a suboptimal ban outside of Master/Challenger. Janna, statistically one of the best bans in the game, was banned in less than 1% of games."
The pictures are data from North America, Ranked. Data for any region may be found at the Best Bans website, and adjusted at the top right corner.
####These are what should be banned, not what are being banned.
####Ban rate is taken into account.
####Always look at your team's pre-picks when deciding a ban; some compositions handle particular champions better.
####Note that this data is pre-hotfix. But Malz will likely be the only affected, as will be apparent in the observations.
Full table of champions on www.bestbans.com
These pictures are only for NA. Data for most regions found on the site.
#Observations
Malzahar, what is there to say about you that has yet to be said? Perhaps one thing is that despite Malzahar's ability to solo dragons and rift heralds exceedingly early [(though they could already do that, y'all)] it is actually lane Malzahar providing the bulk of Malzahar's consistency. Malzahar's laning potential remains very powerful, though it's a little tough to tell what the impacts of the upcoming hotfix will have on this.
Brand is the next notable Big 6 Magician, taking a top spots in Bronze and Silver. Notably, as rank rises, Brand's influence has a very consistent decline, one of the strongest "lose consistency with rank" cases ever seen in Best Bans history. If Riot makes adjustments, it will likely be to something to bridge this gap.
Taric was amazingly dominant the previous patch, but the new "season" combined with the nerfs has brought their consistency to a fair amount at all ranks. Looks like Riot got their predictions right with this adjustment.
Blitzcrank meanwhile has always been one of the most recurring supports on Best Bans, and now they're out for blood, taking a top 2 spot in three tiers and appearing in sixth place in both Bronze and Diamond. The rise of immobile mages has seen a surge of consistency for any champion who can seriously punish them during the laning phase.
Caitlyn follows a similar logic to Blitzcrank, being able to seriously punish the rise of immobile mages during laning, and appears as a top two consistent pick in both Platinum and Diamond. This is a rise that I would never have guessed, so its prominence catches me off guard more than anything else.
Fizz. I CALLED IT. Sort of. Fizz appears in fourth at Gold and fifth in Platinum. When Malzahar gets hotfixed, it's likely this ranking will only increase further, and we may then see a continued rise of the fish. Also that upcoming Galaxy skin is slick.
Vladimir, Cassiopeia, and Swain are all getting buffs when the hotfix hits. However, it's unlikely these buffs with have an impact on the placements in the top 12, because those three are in a very bad spot right now (that second column is winrate).
Soraka was surprisingly not tanked as all hard as expected despite both receiving a nerf and Grievous Wound being reverted to work on their healing. They remain in a fair place of influence now, which should collapse closer to 0 as their pickrate drops in response to the new meta.
Blitzcrank's ban rate continues to hover around 12% but has otherwise stopped rising. This might be because Soraka is banned in 57% of games anyway, which Blitzcrank rose up to handle. When the nerfs on Sorak hit, Blitz will likely go to a more dormant banrate again (sadly).
Zyra is starting to appear in the top 12 spot in a few areas, but their placement seems to have no particular pattern. It would be wise to keep an eye on Zyra for now, but it remains to be see if they'll be a star player. One of my predictions before the update however was that Zyra would be one of the pick/bans. Let's see if the future will support me.
Zed has an enormous banrate of 62%. You will also notice Zed doesn't appear in a single top 12 (I double checked this time, you bastards). In fact, despite the nerf to QSS, Zed's consistency has not risen in any meaningful way. Turns out most ADC's weren't building QSS in the first place to counter Zed's ult. Who would have thought.
Ekko and Kindred also remain very popular bans, but they don't appear anywhere in the top 12. It's likely people have kept banning them due to lacking any good data on what should be banned. Hopefully this post remedies that.
The list is what should be banned, not what is being banned.
Because the list is based on averages, the list is most useful when you know very little about either team or know little about compositions. Influence is defined as: How many times you will lose to a champion per 10,000 games compared to the average.
As with any bans, you only get the true benefit by making sure your team isn't intending to play the banned champion. Otherwise, you are denying the enemy team AND your team the chance of playing a consistent power.
The list does not show what is good, strong, or overpowered. It is an evaluation of which champions are the most consistent. To be consistent is different from being strong or good. It means a champion has both a good winrate and a good pickrate so that, on average, you will lose to the champion more often than you win against them.
Many champions are considered strong because their potential power is very high (Azir) but if people can't tap into that strength, then even a strong champ is inconsistent.
Similarly, even champions considered manageable or decent (Blitzcrank) can have extreme consistency that makes them worthwhile to ban.
#Why use these suggestions?
It bears repeating that the list isn't intended to replace specific banning, but is rather intended for use in an information vacuum. You should largely follow the list when you have little understanding of compositions or don't know what champions either team is running, a fairly common occurrence.
####Legitimate reasons for circumventing these suggested bans:
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The enemy can pick a champion that counters a composition your team has planned
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You know for sure yourself or your team is playing a champion that counters a suggested ban Zed isn't so scary when you know Malzahar is on your team
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There's a high chance the enemy team has a champion specialist who will be much weaker if their primary champion is banned
####Reasons to circumvent bans that are not legitimate:
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Because a champion is "overpowered." Bans should not be based on a champion's strength, but on their win consistency. Even if Tahm Kench could theoretically win 100% of the time with perfect play, that situation is so rare that it doesn't change that Kench wins only 46% of the time on average. Winrate reflects consistency, not strength.
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Because your teammates will be annoyed. Let’s assume that your teammates get ticked off every time Tahm Kench is picked by the enemies. Even with this “buff” caused by annoyed teammates, Kench still only wins 46% of the time. Let your teammates be annoyed; avoiding the ban is still likely the most statistically advantageous chance of success. Reconsider only if it not banning a champion is very likely to put a teammate on extreme tilt.
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Because a champion is annoying to fight. As annoying as certain champions are, if you're trying to maximize your winrate then it's still not a smart idea to ban them simply for being obnoxious. Most obnoxious champions have crippling weaknesses that cause their winrates and/or pickrates to be fairly low. Only if the frustration a champion causes is significant enough to impact your winrate should it even be a consideration.
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Because you want to ban champions from your own team. If your teammate pre-picks a champion, you can always look up your own teammates and see if their history on the champion defies the average. If your teammate doesn't pre-pick, then you deny the enemy team the same chance of picking the banned champion which will work in your favor regardless. ...also, the champions you think you should be banning from your own team Yasuo, Vayne, Zed, new champions aren't the right choices anyway.
#Methodology
All information is compiled over a four day average from op.gg. In specific regions, Lolking provides more accurate pickrate data per tier, and data is used from Lolking in those instances. The data is calculated every day around midnight GMT-7.
Influence is defined as: How many times you will lose to a champion per 1000 games compared to the average.
The Influence calculation is done as follows:
10,000 x (WR - 50%) x (PR / (100% - BR)
Thanks for reading! I hope you will find this useful.
