LP awarded vs predicted outcome

A study of over two hundred ranked matches with the amount of LP awarded plotted against the expected outcome as calculated by lolskill.net. https://s6.postimg.org/6znpn6hjl/LPv_Prediction.png

Two things appear from this examination: 1). The amount of LP awarded/taken does not appear to change across the range of expected outcomes 2). There are two bands of LP awarded for victory that aren't related to lolskill.net's prediction of outcome

The measure of reliability or confidence in the outcome as the numerical predictor reaches its extremes (50% +/- 10%) https://s6.postimg.org/3u33wyyxd/Prediction_Accuracy.png

Conclusion: There is a rule used by Riot to determine one of two possible LP award bands that isn't captured/represented in lolskill.net's prediction of outcomes.

Data on google spreadsheet can be viewed at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11yGk3qnPmm63YtV3FkvovmKGrECks1FQnzVYUdPW8ZY/edit?usp=sharing