Snowballing: Remember That Changes Interact

This season, Riot has tried to end the competitive meta of tanks, waveclear, and scaling marksmen that had dominated the professional scene for years, enabling players to “solo carry” the game again. Their intention was good, but they needed to appreciate that the changes they made to achieve that goal would interact.

1. Conqueror. This keystone rune is a balance lever for the Fighter vs Tank and Skirmisher vs Tank matchups, intended to prevent tanks from stonewalling their lane with a single item and then beating their opponent down with base damages. Tanks, however, are a class that counters pick and burst as the game continues; if Conqueror pushes them from lane, then all-in burst champions can dominate early, snowball, and then scale.

2. Jungle XP rework. The Level 3 topside double buff gank, especially when empowered by a Blast Cone, was awful and difficult to play against. Moving XP from the camps to the Crab and delaying Cone spawn time topside prevented this tactic, but the reward for the Scuttle remains so great that Level 2 dueling power is necessary for a meta pick.

3. Mana rework. Waveclear mages were buying one mana item and then endlessly clearing waves, basically never having to back for more mana, and spamming spells during teamfights. Nerfing their mana access during mid and late game prevented endless stalling, but that same waveclear and spam is also designed to slow snowballed pushes and reward a scaling pick.

4. Crit Rework. Hypercarries were cruising through lane and spiking at one and a half or even two items. They were indisputably the meta choice for professional play. Making them as risky a choice as lane bullies, however, can make picking for lane the number one priority for a position that was meant to shine in teamfights.

What was the outcome of these changes? They changed the draft decisions of solo-queue and professional teams to prioritize early game power in every position, creating volatile matchups across the board. With the nerfing of the tank-mage-carry combination, stalling became more difficult, leaving less to stop the outcomes of any one of those matchups from significantly affecting the outcome of the whole game.

Now, each change must be balanced with the others in mind. Conqueror must not only ensure that Fighters and Skirmishers can compete against Tanks toplane but also not prevent Tanks from being viable choices to protect scaling carries elsewhere. Jungle needs less XP in the Crab to prevent Level 2 dueling from requirement for viability. The mid-game waveclear of non-mage midlaners must be measured against mages’ lowered clear. Finally, scaling Marksmen must be viable in a meta with fewer Tanks and Mages to protect them.

With these changes, we could see more diversity and reduce the hidden snowball of lanes, also restoring mid and late game as regular features that teams must plan around and which threaten early compositions with ‘falling off’.

What do you think?