Elo Hell, My thoughts

Diamonesd·8/31/2014, 3:04:00 AM·4 votes·410 views

Say a bronze player is worth a range of 100-150. Silver is worth a range of 150-200. Gold, 200-250. Platinum 250-300. Diamond 300-350.

Realistically though, Platinum would be worth somewhere between 400-500 (if we are comparing them to bronzies as the base) and diamonds 600-700, but I want to just show something.

Here I am a diamond smurf in Bronze.

My team: 810 100 120 140 125 325

Their team: 750 150 150 150 150 150

But that is not how these games go. All I need from my teammates for all four not to feed 5 kills before 10 minutes and I will crush my lane and crush everyone on the enemy team. Even if my botlane and toplane feed, as long as my jungle doesnt feed, I will win any game in bronze and silver elo.

My team doesnt really play much of a role in winning the game. It is basically entirely me when I took my accounts from bronze to platinum.

Elo is supposed to work this way. A bronze player is 800-1100 elo. A silver is 1100-1400. Gold is 1400-1850. Platinum is 1850-2250. Diamond is 2250 +

If we put a Gold player into a bronze 2 game, the elo would look something like this

Team 1:5400 950 950 950 950 1600

Team 2:5000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

If the Gold player continues to get teams like this through bronze, they will win a high majority of their games since even if their team is of lesser skill, their greater skill should always tip the scales towards them; thus, Elo hell is not a place where a Gold level player would ever get stuck in bronze. It will statistically never happen since they would always have the advantage (unless they were playing against another smurf). This discrepancy only gets greater when you sub in a platinum with 1900 skill level or a Diamond with a 2400 skill level.

Elo Hell, or what people think Elo hell is, is when they hit the wall and their personal skill level is no longer giving them the advantage most of their games, but the main thing to realize is it always comes back to their own persona skill. Lets take another example. Lets say we are playing in Silver 5 elo range (Bronze 1-Silver4).

We will use 1100 as the base for a Silver 5 player

Our first team will be an even spread among the elo range. First Team:5500 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000

Our second team will have will have a similar elo spread, but with one variable, the player in elo hell

Second Team: 5400 1000 1050 1100 1150 ---- Player in "Elo Hell" with a skill level of 1100

In order for this player to have a statistical advantage in winning this game, they will need to be a 1250+ player, but they are not. They are just a regular silver 5 1100 player; thus, they lose this game based on the numbers because they are down 100 points in skill level. This will continue to happen over the course of their days in silver 5, unless they are able to increase their own skill level beyond 1200. Now the spread of elo will be different every game and some games they will get the Plus and some games they will get the Negative, but the only thing they can control is their own skill level.

For that player to TRULY progress out of silver 5, they must become a silver 4 player every game. A silver 4 player will perform with a 1200-1250 skill level every game.

The reason why I went 30 wins and 3 losses when I was in bronze on a smurf was my teams were too heavy. Meaning, a regular player who puts up a 900 skill level game, put up a 450. My skill level (and possibly my champion pick) was not high enough to overcome the lack of skill on my team compared to the other team.

You throw my 1850-2200 skill level in a bronze game, I will win most every game, but I can lose if I make a mistake or if I have an afk or a team who feeds 15 kills in 5 minutes (extremely rare though).

There are multiple reasons why 4vs5 are hard to win, but lets just look at the numbers.

If you put silver 5s at 1000 skill level rating against 4 silver 3s with 1200 rating, 5000>4800.

Elo hell comes into play when one's personal skill is no longer high enough for them to gain a distinct advantage every game (100-150 skill points). Even if you have a 100-150 skill level advantage, that doesnt mean you will win the game, it just means you should win it. You will also not lose every game with a negative skill point level.

A silver 3 player may need 50 games to get out of silver 5 because they are only playing at +150 skill point advantage, but they will eventually get out; however, a gold player in silver 5 with a +400 skill point advantage will quickly rise out of silver 5.

That is just how the numbers fall. It is impossible statistically for a silver 3 + player to get stuck in bronze. It just cant happen. The numbers dont add up. If the silver 3 player gets stuck in bronze, they are not silver 3 players. It is also impossible for a gold 3+ player to get stuck in silver. It just doesnt add up, but it is possible for a gold 5-gold 4 player to get stuck in silver 1, because silver 1 is close enough in skill points that their skill points, while they may be getting an advantage in most of their games, will not be such a large advantage that they will win the needed games to progress in tiers.

Whenever I see a player move up a tier, what that says to me is not only are they not silver 5 anymore, that player is most likely a silver 3 level player moving up the system. Human error will always play a role though. I've seen players in their diamond promos get knocked back to plat 5. That is 100% their fault though. That is what we call being on Tilt. They are no longer playing at a 2300 level, but a 1900-2000 level because something irked them and they just cant focus.

1 Comments

AMYS GRAVE10/3/2014, 7:56:17 PM1 votes

You're analysis is flawed. It can take just one person to throw a game, and even if you never throw, and throws are evenly distributed between the other 9 players then there is a 5/9 chance of winning and 4/9 chance of loosing. With that in mind going 3/7 in a ten game run isn't even statistically significant to 95%CL even though you never threw a game, losing you large chunks of ELO and dropping your placement significantly.

In your first example

Team 1:5400 950 950 950 950 1600

Team 2:5000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

all your team mates are more likely to throw than the enemy, making this worse. The better you are, the worse your team mates must be to keep the matching working properly, exacerbating this situation. Also in your example you gain less elo if you win and lose more for a loss, making it harder to climb to where you should be.

The bright side is that this assumes that only one player throws per game and it leads to loss, but in bronze those type of mistakes that would be game ending (even in silver) are usually not capitalized on so if you are true gold+ you can certainly escape bronze. But it can really happen that a gold player gets stuck in silver or a plat stuck in gold etc... and while they might eventually get out, the crawl can take months or years with a large statistical component, which is what most people are frustrated with when they talk about ELO hell.