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ARAM not so random

Tranney Hunter·12/22/2019, 8:48:28 PM·2 votes·1,785 views

https://gyazo.com/2e79be6660e13566ad80fc9cc4164b9f

This is just a one game sample of something I've noticed over the past few weeks. This is more of a study than a rant

My theory is that in order to satiate the need to make subpar casual ARAM players keep playing, Riot loads them in with players who get Ss, As, and Bs on not so great ARAM champs (I've gotten Trynd 4 times in the last 8 games)

I had about 40 wins over my losses which looked like 500 victories and 460 defeats, I've noticed I've been losing constantly in big clumps of 2-6 defeats while never going past a 2 win streak. Now, my victories sit at 553 while my defeats are all the way up to 527, which is only a difference of 26. This can only mean that whenever you're above .500 ratio, Riot will use it's magical matchmaking algorithm to make ARAM not-so random by giving you players under your skill level with less than ideal champs (Gnar Morde Draven Trynd) while overloading the enemy team with better players and better champs (Raka Jayce Kayle) and really test your skills to carry which IS more luck based rather than randomized and skill based.

Like I said, I'm using that one game as an example of something I've noticed over the past few weeks. I seem to get the "6th enemy man" every few defeats after a victory or 2 and I notice the enemy not only getting some extra help from our team, but they get champs like Raka who will obviously stack hp, or Janna who is at a 56.8% win rate on ARAM.

I could go on and on about this based on my last games but I'm curious about others' thoughts on Riot trying to control ARAM more and more (patches, probabilities in comps and players being matched, etc.) and trying to ground players back down to that magic .500 ratio

4 Comments

SeraphielX12/23/2019, 12:21:14 AM2 votes

It's not all that random to start with.

Each team is pulling only from the champs they've unlocked, plus the free rotation. Rerolls reduce the randomness of the assignment even further by giving someone an even higher chance to pick from a champ they own (and are likely more familiar with).

I haven't seen any games for a long time where a champ appeared on both teams, so if there is a mechanism enforcing uniqueness then the randomness is diminished even more.

Making an algorithm as smart as you describe seems like more effort than we should expect from Riot anymore. ;)

Tranney Hunter12/22/2019, 9:33:10 PM1 votes

Update: just lost 4 after that where 1 comp was just Kalista with Janna and Yuumi supporting and Maokai frontlining so that was quick and then had a bruiser Nasus on my team the next game who had 100 stacks by 10 minutes cuz he kept going back to base and afking and acting like a bot basically. Very cool, almost to .500 I'll post again when I lose 20 more games and get there

Saezio12/23/2019, 8:36:15 AM1 votes

Morde and draven are great for aram. Your players just didn't know how to play them obv

rubber ripper12/23/2019, 9:34:12 AM1 votes

I don't know, I've played over 8000 ARAM games and my win/loss is far below .500, I have roughly 700 more losses than wins. Over the past 2 weeks, I'm at ~22% win rate (including a 19 game losing streak).

I think it's random up to the point where the champions aren't truly random because of so called "ARAM accounts." After that, the game is 100% a comp game and the luck of not being in a 4v5.