Analysis of Why Defensive Options NEED buffing
So the state of the game is kind of crazy right now as is expected since there are some big changes. The game is really a lot about damage its not just cheese comps being picked every game. (you see a lot of them for sure where its 5 damage dealers, but not every game and this applies even in normal team comp based games) This preseason people are exploding level 1/2 really quickly and people are snowballing super hard. But what caused this?
1.) Defensive Base Stats are (sort of) down.
Many champions got compensation buffs either in health OR armor. And I don't believe ANYONE got magic resist buffs. These means people are just straight up squishier. The idea was pen is gone but if you look at the numbers it doesn't line up. Mpen runes and masteries were roughly 10 mpen at level 1 scaling up to 14 at level 18. (8 from runes 2-6 from mastery precision) All champions lost roughly 12 magic resist flat from the level 1 runes and some lost 27 from scaling options. (a lot of people did take scaling mr albeit not as often) But for the sake of argument let's say everyone lost around 12 MR.
What does this mean? it's a net gain of 2 mpen (sort of) for all magic damage dealers as at level 1 they are losing ten but gaining an effective 12 by the loss of the MR on the enemy. this is a flat (albeit pretty small) buff in damage. By level 18 its a nerf as they lose 2 mpen compared to before. But there is MORE to the story than just that small 2 mpen. 2 mpen is not why people are blowing up.
2.) Sorc Boots Got Buffed to Compensate loss of Mpen
So to make sure mages scaled the same (as you read above they are losing roughly 2 mpen later in the game even without mr compensation on enemies) Sorc Boots got buffed to give +18 Mpen. This means that straight up an item purchased by mages is just more efficient now. It's stronger and due to how cheap it is and how core of an item to build for a mage usually it means you pick these up relatively early. So 18 Mpen let's say around level 10. Old Precision would have given you. At level 10 Precision would have given you 4 Mpen. With your old runes thats 12 total mpen from runes/masteries. and with old sorcs thats 27 Mpen with sorcs at this point. In the current set up you have 18 flat Mpen period. (won't count sudden impact since its so weird to use on anyone who doesnt have a dash, you basically would have to burn flash)
Old Set up = 27 Mpen vs 42 MR (minimum) = 15 Effective MR on the enemy
New Setup = 18 Mpen vs 35 MR (range champions have 0.5 mr per level) = 17 Effective MR on the enemy
BUT WAIT this is a BUFF? Am I destroying my own argument? Nope, this is all a part of the bigger picture. Keep reading.
3.) Many of the new runes straight up add free damage as their value
Aery adds 15-40 (and ratios) damage. Comet adds 30-100 (and ratios), scorch adds 30 damage at level 1 scaling up to 60 on abilities, electrocute does 50- 220 (plus ratios) damage, taste of blood deals 12-30 true damage, PTA deals 30-100 damage and exposes.
I will say that PTA is probably the least of the issues here, but the others are bigger issues when paired with the above. you are looking at at net buff early game to mages and increasing basically the base damage on any mages spell by anywhere from 30-60. Let's look at old Thunderlords and Deathfire since that is what mages lost early:
Thunderlords was 10 damage at level 1 every 25 seconds with its damage going up by 10 and its cooldown going down by 0.6 seconds every level. (10% ap ratio)
Deathfire in a best case scenario (single target spell) would be a flat 8 damage at level 1 with a 25% ap ratio.
Compare that with Aery/Comet/Electrocute and they pale in comparison for level 1 damage. DFT was basically non existent early and TLD is actually weaker than Aery with a longer cooldown. Hell its weaker than SCORCH which is a BASIC rune that requires NO CONDITIONS besides hit someone with a spell (thunderlords required 3 instances of damage)
So as a result spell casters/assassins/poke champions are having their base damage going WAY up compared to the old system. Now let's look at the defensive rune options for raw stats
**4.) Defensive Runes are very weak early game for non Resolve primary users. **
So this post is mainly about non resolve primary users. If you are going down resolve as a primary the runes are tailored to you decently. Conditioning over all sucks but because you will likely build lots of mr/armor the value you get out of it after waiting 10 minutes is pretty good. Remember if you go down the resolve tree as a secondary you are giving up damage based secondary runes that could add massive amounts of base damage to your spells or in many situations very very strong utility like triumph. So what are the options a squishy champ would want to take to have a more "defensive set up"?
Mirror Shell = 5 mr (and weird buff to mr for a few seconds when healed? kinda unreliable dont consider it) Iron Skin= 5 armor (same as mirror shield except with armor here) Conditioning= 8 armor/mr after ten minutes and 5% bonus armor/mr (anywhere from 2-5 more armor/mr based on what you build as a squishy)
Overgrowth= 0.2% max health per 8 minions that die near you. every 40 minions is 1% max health. In most games I brought this on a squishy I would get anywhere from 150-200 Health late game. So basically a ruby crystal at 30 minutes.
And here is where I feel the biggest problems lie. If you look at level 1 Magic damage dealers got a default of +2 effective pen as there is a loss in difference of 2 mr right there. they also got MASSIVE damage buffs in the early game runes in aery/comet/scorch, etc. The counter rune which is supposed to be an equally strong defensive choice is a pitty 5 magic resist. This is being buffed to 6 magic resist which still sounds weak but let's for the sake of argument take a look at the effective of that. If you choose to take the 6 magic resist rune for early game and sacrifice the potential for another strong rune like scorch early game for it What is your damage going to be like compared to pre pre-season league? You are effectively gaining 4 Magic Resist compared to before and that's before factoring in the 30-60 base damage on (almost) every spell the enemy is throwing out at you. This gives you an effective 4% maximum health early game which on most squishies at level 1 is about 20 health ish. Give or take a few points in either direction. (used twitch with 525 base health at level 1 as baseline) 20 effective health at level 1.
That is NOT enough to make up for the massive damage increases across the board for mages/assassins/poke champions. And it is the primary reasons why you see cheese poke shit like Xerath supp and why MF with E and comet cheesing her way into your games. Its why Karma is obliterating you down in bot lane for almost half your life with a mantra Q. What can be done to fix this? whats the solution?
MY THOUGHTS:
I personally see the intention of riot to keep the damage numbers close to before and they had the RIGHT idea by making sure the loss of Mpen didn't make damage dealers feel incredibly weak. But they seemed to have completely overlooked defensive options altogether. As it fucks any champion who isn't strong enough to all in and blow you up early or poke you to death into oblivion. Assassins kind of get a pass due to the sheer strength of electrocute which is fine, because assassins can and should be able to kill people. (kind of their role) But what is unacceptable to me is that there are no options to run a defensive set up without cutting yourself off at the knee. If you run the MR you basically aren't getting much out of it and you are giving up A LOT to get so little. I think the defensive runes need to be buffed with secondary users in mind. Conditioning's stats are better suited for level 1 to even be considered and the other two will never be considered in their current state by anyone who does the basic math.
I personally would like to see something along the lines of this:
Mirror Shell + 10 Magic Resist and + 50 Health (that's it. nothing special nothing fancy. Just some early game defensive stats to help you survive) Iron Skin +10 Armor and + 50 Health (same as above) Conditioning +1.5 Armor and MR Per Level and + 5.5 Health Per level (ends up being 99 Health, 27 armor, and 27 mr)
This gives you a solid defensive choice for all situations. Say you are against a Karma or Sona in bot lane and you are a twitch. You don't wanna get your booty handed to you and have to back at level 2 so you can take mirror shell to survive the early game along with second wind.
Say you are against a Zed or Talon in the mid lane and you are a powerful scaling champ like Veigar, Iron skin can help you survive the early game vs Zed and the stat's won't necessarily help you survive his burst later.
These are EARLY GAME options.
Conditioning would be great for those who want to be tankier and don't need to be tankier early. Usually I would see tanks taking this but may be you have an easy matchup and don't value the extra damage. this would make conditioning so much more appealing.
Remember, these seem really strong and would be massive buffs, but they need to be massive buffs as the difference between them and the other runes right now are GINORMOUS. But personally I'll take anything at this point. The defensive options aren't options right now and I hope riot looks into it in some aspect.
That's it.

