I can't justify ever picking Hecarim for someone with < 100 games experience on him.

And even for 100+ game experience, you'll win more with another champ if you learned them. Hecarim is the 2nd worst jungler in the game and the 3rd worst top with sub 45% win rates in both roles. Top lane Hecarim players with over 50-125 games of experience do not even break 50% while those with 125+ games of experience still only have a 41% win rate. This win rate (for plat+ Hecarim mains too!) is lower than the average win rate of Urgot in Bronze during Season 4.

Hecarim has the following strengths: decent ganks. above average damage. late game tankiness. strong AOE CC ult.

Hecarim's weaknesses: squishy early game due to dumpstered base stats. Insane mana costs compared to last season. weak early game mobility. weak dueling. Needs to build damage to do damgae and build tank to be tank.

This is in contrast to every other bruiser or tank who either have low mana costs or are totally manaless, get free survivability (so they can build damage) or free damage (so they can build tank), much better mobility, much better base stats, far superior dueling and far superior itemization.

Right now, a 5-1 Hecarim is less of a threat to the enemy team than a 0-3 Amumu because Amumu does more damage without building damage, is tankier without building tank and has a stronger ult to boot. The only thing Amumu does worse than Hec is farming scuttle crab.