Silver is the equivalent to Diamond and here's how. (Math Inside)

Sandalpho·2/27/2015, 5:47:03 PM·5 votes·954 views

While the Elo system is meant for two-player games, it will also work for two-team games if the teams are static. This is because each team is considered a ‘player’ entity, even though it is comprised of multiple players, and therefore fits within the two-player system. However if teams are randomly selected for every match, they can no longer be tracked using Elo, because a persistent entity no longer exists to fit within the two-player model.

For registered teams (3v3 or 5v5), Riot likely uses a traditional Elo system, because it fits within the above models and works properly within the scope of Elo. However for solo/duo queue, Riot chooses to apply Elo ratings to individual players, and then build a team rating based on the average. After a team wins or loses, the team is disbanded and each player receives a ratings adjustment. This breaks the entire Elo system and leads to completely flawed logic in matchmaking, such as:

Your rating is supposed to reflect individual skill, yet ratings adjustments are not based on you. They are based on randomized teams.
The best and worst players on a team are blindly considered to have contributed equally in a match.
The logic of this system dictates that, if your random team loses, then your personal score accurately deserves the full calculated penalty.
Each player bets their rating against 100% of the penalty, for only a 20% stake in each match. This means 80% of your rating is influenced by external factors, which are randomized before every match. This is not a skill-based system.
Because the system pushes to begin new players at mid-range Elo, using inaccurate random qualifier matches, these players are statistically likely to be overrated.
When an overrated player contributes heavily to a loss, the entire team is penalized, including those possibly underrated. Since new, overrated players are constantly entering the system, based on learning curves, this logically creates a negative feedback loop that some people call ‘Elo Hell’.
Once you get above the Elo range where new players may be placed, external factors in matchmaking become less random. Consistency in matchmaking continues to increase with higher Elo, potentially leading to a positive feedback loop in higher rankings. Some people might call this ‘Elo Heaven’.

The whole point of Elo is to measure the relative skill levels of players in two-player games, not multiple players in random teams. It doesn’t matter whether Riot uses a “proprietary system” or calls it “matchmaking points”. I’ve read many Riot posts about the new system, and while efforts are made to normalize data from streaks and other factors, they are still using an inherently broken Elo system under the hood.

For individual ratings to have any accuracy in team matchmaking there must be some basis on personal attributes. This is the reason why virtually all professional sports track performance metrics on players when calculating odds between team matches. Some games use a “points” system to measure player contribution within a team. Even something overly simplistic as “loss penalties are divided based on deaths” would add some accuracy to the system.

The purpose of this post is to point out the logical fallacies of Riot’s matchmaking system. There are many people who attack or defend the new matchmaking system without rational explanation, providing their isolated experiences as anecdotal evidence. This is not necessary. Based on information released by Riot and numerous players on the forums, the current system behaves exactly as designed. The problem is this design includes many leaps of logic and blind assumptions that are obvious to any programmer or critical thinking, and on top of that, is being falsely represented as being effective skill based matchmaking.

I challenge anyone to explain how this system performs individual skill based matchmaking in any logical way. Please describe how the logic in such a system works and how it represents individual skill levels with any degree of accuracy. (6x6=36)

21 Comments

BlazinHot62/27/2015, 6:16:39 PM3 votes

While I agree with your post, you really didnt touch on your thesis of silver being equivalent to diamond.

Mayor Stubbs2/27/2015, 6:42:07 PM2 votes

Nobody has or ever will argue against the rating system being immensely flawed. The issue is there is no logical way to improve it because there are so many variables and strategies that make things like kda, objectives, farm, Etc not something that can be gauged as good or bad in every game.

Tsugaga2/27/2015, 6:28:09 PM1 votes

MMR will never be based of individual performance because then players on the same team will be competing. Every player on a team needs to have the same potential losses, otherwise players would just try to get as many kills as possible, and just have a play style that focuses on themselves rather than the entire team. This is a team game, you have to be a team player to win, being selfish will just get you losses.

Xenomancers2/27/2015, 6:29:01 PM1 votes

A fine analysis. This argument wouldn't be disputed by anyone intelligent - if not for the vested stake a lot of people have in their rating. I've played several thousand games and I see almost no real difference in player skills or decision making based on the S1 games I play in and the challenger games and lcs games I spectate.

Drunk Rummate2/27/2015, 6:42:34 PM1 votes

theoretically it may make sense, but i suggest you pit a team of 5 diamond players versus a team of 5 silver players and see who wins before you believe it :)

there are obviously hidden factors that correlate with skill and MMR which you havent touched on, such as number of games played.

Volt Cruelerz2/27/2015, 5:57:14 PM1 votes

The thing is though, over time it will converge on your true skill level because you are the one constant in all your games.

SmokingPuffin2/27/2015, 6:54:04 PM1 votes

Each player bets their rating against 100% of the penalty, for only a 20% stake in each match. This means 80% of your rating is influenced by external factors, which are randomized before every match. This is not a skill-based system.

Is it your opinion that poker is not a skill-based game?

Because the system pushes to begin new players at mid-range Elo, using inaccurate random qualifier matches, these players are statistically likely to be overrated.

If you insert the entire playerbase at a giving rating, the mean player will have precisely that rating. Presuming a normal distribution of players within the range, an equal number of players will be underrated as overrated.

I challenge anyone to explain how this system performs individual skill based matchmaking in any logical way. Please describe how the logic in such a system works and how it represents individual skill levels with any degree of accuracy.

In any given game, the team allocation factor is stronger than the player skill factor. However, the matchmaker is not out to get you. Over a large number of games, everyone gets equal luck in team allocation. This leaves us with an effective measure of player skill.

Acidic Puddle2/27/2015, 6:13:44 PM1 votes

Statistically speaking you will win 50% of your games if you are at the correct elo, so it still all comes out the same. Silver is a lot worse than Diamond, just deal with it. Your bad at math and unistall.