"statistically if matchmaking is working really well, you’re going to lose about half of your games"

Kyunsei·7/12/2018, 10:46:40 PM·40 votes·11,424 views

From Maple Nectar and Ghostcrawler in the last Ask Riot, "BATTLE ROYALE AND BOT LANE".

As I agree looking for games that have a 50/50 chance of win is a good matchmaking, losing and winning half of your game **DOESNT **mean the matchmaking system is good.

It means if you have won your past 5 games, you're more likely to have games that tend to be 45/55 in favor of your opponent, which lead to drastically UNFUN and **UNFAIR **games.

**50% winrate statistically speaking isn't what you should be looking for. **

What we need is to have players of EQUAL SKILL LEVEL in each team to be the closest possible of FAIR and FUN matches, with a permanent focus on having 50/50 chance of winning for either team.

79 Comments

redniwediS7/12/2018, 11:29:41 PM24 votes

It means if you have won your past 5 games, you're more likely to have games that tend to be 45/55 in favor of your opponent

No, it doesn't.

There are two ways to make a 50% win rate happen.

What you're suggesting is they are taking players from slightly lower skill ratings and putting them into the games of the player with the winning streak in order to make it harder on them. Multiple players are being moved around in this. We have no evidence of it happening, which could still be done by spreading out the random losses across many lower skilled players, but would take a significant amount of resources to pull off.

What we need is to have players of EQUAL SKILL LEVEL in each team to be the closest possible of FAIR and FUN matches, with a permanent focus on having 50/50 chance of winning for either team.

This is what we have. This is exactly what we have. There is no genius level conspiracy here being pulled off by Riot, there are just people running around not understanding the current matchmaking system.

After a winning streak the matchmaking system views your chance of winning to be 55/45 against the people you have been playing against, so it places you and you alone into a slightly higher tier. Maybe it's wrong and needs to give more time for adjustment, and maybe your win streak was luck, so chances are you're going to drop back down to where you were by losing. There is no way to build a matchmaking system that attempts to make matches fair that doesn't end up doing exactly what the current matchmaking system does, at least so long as it is attached to the current ranked ladder.

Akali is SO HOT7/13/2018, 12:12:04 AM9 votes

Matchmaking isn't forcing a 50% winrate on you that is just how it ends up for an average player. If you go on a 5 game winning streak that means your MMR will be higher and the matchmaking system will place you with players that are at that higher skill level. This means that the game will now be harder to win because you are playing against better players. Matchmaking isn't intentionally putting you against better players so you go on a losing streak. It's putting you against better players because your MMR is now higher than it was before. This means games will naturally be harder for you to win as you win more games in a row. As you climb higher you are matched against people of the same rating as you so matches should become harder because you are placed against better players.

There is nothing in the system that is going, "Hey this guy won 5 games in a row let's just fuck him over for 10 games so he can't climb." If that were the case, then nobody would ever be able to climb and nobody would ever be able to get above a 50% winrate which we just don't see. If you are an average player, then that means the system will naturally put you at around a 50% winrate. Not because the system is intentionally doing that, but because you yourself have an average skill rating. If you are a better player your winrate will be higher than 50% because you are winning and improving despite being paired against better players. If you are below average, then you will have below a 50% winrate because you aren't improving and you aren't able to beat people at the same level as you.

420 grams7/12/2018, 11:08:27 PM6 votes

Let 50% win rates come naturally from the law of large numbers and just focus on equal matches

Tahminatrix 7/12/2018, 11:06:19 PM4 votes

So riot`s matchmaking

I wonder which of these 3 things weighs the most elo < mmr < winrate.

Winrate is riot`s thicc bihh

ChargeItDownMid7/13/2018, 12:11:33 AM4 votes

[deleted]

Khristophoros7/13/2018, 1:42:48 AM4 votes

The matchmaker determines your skill level dynamically over the course of the games you play. If you go on a winning streak is it wrong for the system to conclude that you're improving and ready for a bigger challenge? How else is it going to continue testing your skill level to keep it updated?

Players improve. The system needs to have a way to determine when improvement has occurred.

And you also misunderstand how it challenges players. It doesn't give you weaker allies when you're doing well. That is a myth perpetrated by bad players. All that happens is your MMR goes up and you go into higher MMR games. Both your allies and opponents are supposed to be within a certain range around your MMR.

Sometimes you do get streaks of badly matched games because the matchmaker isn't able to perfectly evaluate players and players aren't always consistent anyway. So you can get unlucky and that can't be helped. It can only be mitigated to some extent if the matchmaker's rating of players could be made more accurate somehow.