Your learning and im really happy to see that.
Few corrections.
First up. Might be language barrier here but in your post.
Next we have a suggestion that it should be different in the case of the LOL game, because the formula:
En = E + OmK(+/- 400 + (Etopp - Et))
En - new ELO
E - old ELO
Om - player predicted game infulance
K - stability factor
I don't see you addressing some of the core take always you need to have from that video I gave you. I know your using his team formula because of OM.
Its not going to just be En = E + OmK(+/- 400 + (Etopp - Et)) at the end of a match. It will be 10 sets of that. All with their own variables relevant to each account + the variables relevant to each match.
The OM is a modification that Rabbit on Da Moon used for his matchmaker system. His OM works to add more MMR gains and losses, over time that extra mmr will favor good players, punish bad ones. Because the odds of a win are higher for better players. The odds of a win are higher for folks the system still has misplaced lower then actual skill. Rng balances out over time in statistical systems.
Elo is a statistical system. Even before building a match maker just off complete RNG for an entire ladder (4:47 for the graph) you can see how hidden strength (player skill, win %) will put better players higher and bad ones lower. This is with no range, no decent match makeing, just complete rng. Like the old Dota all stars days where you only played mobas with custom games. Now his graph,that's out of 1,000 games. Assuming 30 min averaged game times that's a a 500 hours of game time. 20+ Days of non stop league. Good thing match making systems lowers this number.
Now... We add in our match maker.
En = E + OmK(+/- 400 + (Etopp - Et)) is just the adjustment formula per player at match end. Adding a Range to match building, only pull from a 200 range like Rabbit did this smooths the curve out. How the system builds games affects the quality of a match.
**You are not addressing that you understand why we want to build games in a range. **Again might be your English but I feel like you understood this or know why its so important.
Why do I feel like this?
So it can be even that - in a low division there will be players with high ELO / MMR (adequate to ex diamond) which seems pointless - but this formula does not exclude this possibility at all - moreover if...
No. There cant naturally be this situation. See it pulls from a range of mmr. so even if you dodge every promotional match. If you have Diamond MMR and your accounts still Bronze 1. You would not be pulled by the system to play with people in low MMRs.
your at 1800 it looks to put you into a game where 1800 is in its acceptable range. A smurf in bronze is a smurf. Their MMR is that low that's why it gets placed into those matches. This is not the system failing, its some one actively using knowledge of how mmr works to intentionally manipulate their placement down the ladder.
Get it yet? Its more then just the adjustment formula that goes into making a balanced match and there is multiple adjusments made at the end of a match because each player is tracked separately from their team.
it will still only determine the player's specific score for a given season - and it is not a pattern that determines the correctness of the selection of players to the teams and it is not a guarantee that players will be placed in right divisions
If you don't hit statistical significance in a statistical system then yes there is no guarantee it will place you right. If you only played 3 games of ranked its unlikely to correctly represent your skill.
It is still a pattern how ever.People who beat the people around them constantly is a pattern, So they move higher up the ladder. Players who lose games constantly are a pattern. They move down. This movement goes on until its not a pattern anymore.
It will get you placed to your skill eventually. If you play enough games it will filter out RNG and get to a point its got you at a workable MMR number to represent your skill in relation to the rest of the games playerbase. That's its job, and it accomplishes that.It finds your skill over time. It does not magically know your hidden strength. Like Rabbit said, if you used hidden strength to build a Elo system, your cheating.
You don't call it accurate when the K factor is high, new accounts are mismatched. the systems job is to find and place them over time. Individual matches are not a big deal. Law of large number system.
Also your mistaken, its more then just 1 year. Its a soft reset, not a hard reset. Your placement affects your next season. Soft resets allow for excess MMR to be bleed out of the system and removal of inactive accounts for the ranked ladder.
The point of a competitive ladder is competition. How far can I go with my skill. Lack the skill it doesn't matter how much you play, you wont ever reach the top. Time invested matters, you have to play to win to climb. But Time invested alone is never enough for you to reach the top of the leaderboard if you cant back it up with skill.
That's why Elo and MMR gets used for building competitive ladders.
Its off statistics. You can argue all you want at math, but its objective. It doesn't care about you. Its just math.
The formulas work for their intended propose, provably so.
..if there is possible to ask a question:
How supposedly "Om" would be determined if... "Om" for individual players in a team will be: Om = E + (E!) K (+/- 400 + (Etopp - Et)) ...which suggests that Om is loop - and hence - will not give a consistent result - which is simply un"evaluatable"/unpredictable... in that way "En" will be look like... En=E+(E + (E!) K (+/- 400 + (Etopp - Et)))K(+/-400+(Etopp - Et))
Oposite to part of chess formula (Eopp - E)... LOL have (Etopp - Et) which is not measure a strenght of (single) player (becouse simply it can not - becouse in other way - how system should assess which one of opponents should stand him against us to evaluate strength betwean us) - but - it measure penalty/award ratio which is even not important and absolutely different than evaluating strangth in the same place of formula - ?!?$%^@# Moreover... what "Etopp - Et" means at all? Is "Etopp - Et" trying to assess "RANDOM SINGLE-EVERY-PLAYER OF OUR TEAM AWARD/PENALTY RATIO" by compareing and sume with "RANDOM SINGLE-EVERY-PLAYER OF ENEMY TEAM AWARD/PENALTY RATIO" - WTF? ...where the sense of "strenght" dissapeared?
- How is om made? Assuming we are talking about Rabbits it was off MMR in relation to teammates. Does it loop? No.
I will walk you thru it.
The Adjustment formula turns into a number at the end. You had 1400, won a match. After your adjusted your now at 1450 mmr. Your next game it will build your OM in the adjustment off your new mmr of 1450. In Rabbits it will look at your teammates. Your OM is going to be in relation to them. If your 1450 is lower then average your OM is lowered. If your 1450 is higher then team average your om is higher. Rabbit's OM is built from previous games, Off your current MMR + averages for your teammates current mmr (look at 4:08 you see how he is only looking at a single team for this, its not built off the other team.) And It doesn't look at your future mmr after the adjustment. The Om variable, is built and set at the start of a match. After the games done that value is plugged into the adjustment formula. There is no loop because its ready to go prior to starting the adjustment process.
This works to add extra MMR to your system, with the trend in wins and losses this means that we see a more rapid climb for good players, they cash in more often on extra mmr gains. Even if its 100% rng for if you see the extra MMR gains from OM the trend of player strength to win% will assist our goal. Move good players up, bad ones down. Its predictable when you factor in Player strength/skill. It doesn't change any core functionality of the System, just speeds it up.
- Your mistake. Etopp is a combined team score. You also seem to have completely forgotten or missed that we have a set range for matchmaker. Etopp is built from a section of the ladder not every player in the game. Etopp would be averaged MMR for all players on a team, both teams Etopp should be as close to identical as possible for a "fair" match. In a "unfair" match, when there's just not a perfect match, then the adjustment formula gets changes to reflect that one team is favored. The systems assessment is off players mmr. It assumes any one with higher MMR is stronger then you. any one with less is weaker. So Eopp - E In this is build around the entire Team scores and predictions. (K factor and OM are player specific.)
Also, despite the caps lock its not completely random. "RANDOM SINGLE-EVERY-PLAYER OF OUR TEAM AWARD/PENALTY RATIO" You need to understand that just because its variables it is not pure rng. there are rules. Theres multiple variable values but they are not generated randomly. They are built by the system. There's rules, like the ones it uses to build matches. What it considers fair. The range it pulls from matters. Strength relation in to the equation? "Strength" in Elo/MMR is going to be your ability to win if your mismatched. low strength and you drop. High and you climb. Strengths the players skill, its what determines an outcome and tells the system hey your assumption on my skill is wrong, adjust accordingly. We have 10 individual adjustment formulas at a matches end. This is fair.
Remember we can't use actual strength to build our system, but we can to test it. Its the hidden skill matching assigned skill thats what the systems trying to find. The entire point is to get to having the assigned MMR/Elo be a increasingly accurate representation of a players skill.
So no doubt, teammates do impact your ability to win or lose a match. Opponents affect a match.
This does not stop the system from functioning correctly. It expects mismatches, to be wrong, its self correcting to deal with that. Rabbit's vid shows this clearly.
out of room. ask if you need more clarity on anything and I will do my best.