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Dynamic Queue Statistics for 61,977 Matches

PM Faker Nudes·6/16/2016, 7:05:18 PM·241 votes·16,200 views

I found some really interesting data on dynamic queue matchmaking. I think you guys will be interested in it as well. Riot will not tell us the facts but that doesn't mean we can't figure it out ourselves. All credits go to richkcho for doing the statistical analysis. All the below is quoted from his report which is linked at the bottom of this post.

I amassed 61977 matches which included at least one challenger or master player. The data scraping attempted to obtain around 100 of the most recent ranked matches per player in challenger/master in this case starting from April 23rd. (This would vary based on players activity, inactive players would have older games in their past 100 games compared to a more active player)

The matches were analyzed to find premades, premades being a group of players who have played at least 10 games together on the same team. There were a total of 1129 games which had at least one 5 man premade. (this might be why Riot doesn't care, matches that include premade 5's statistically speaking are a small minority of matches) The team facing the 5 man premade had the following distribution of premades:

  • 5 solo: 255 (23%)
  • 1 duo, 3 solo: 313 (28%)
  • 2 duo, 1 solo: 58 (4%)
  • 1 trio, 2 solo: 220 (19%)
  • 1 trio, 1 duo: 45 (4%)
  • 1 quad, 1 solo: 168 (15%)
  • another 5 man premade: 70 (6%)

I also ran win-rate analysis. The win rates of the 5 man premade vs the other team based on the premade breakdown of the other team is as follows:

  • vs 5 solo: 70% (179/255)
  • vs 1 duo, 3 solo: 58% (183/313)
  • vs 2 duo, 1 solo: 60% (35/58)
  • vs 1 trio, 2 solo: 63% (138/220)
  • vs 1 trio, 1 duo: 53% (24/45)
  • vs 1 quad, 1 solo: 54% (91/168)

So Riot decided to limit the premade size to three as a band-aid approach to fix the problems elaborated above. The natural question is is this fair?

I ran the same analysis on the dataset but this time focusing on 3-man premades. There were 8170 games with at least one 3-man premade (excluding any games with 4 or 5 man premade). The breakdown of the premade distributions of teams playing against a team with a 3-man premade were:

  • 5 solo: 4012 (49%)
  • 1 duo, 3 solo: 2978 (36%)
  • 2 duo, 1 solo: 548 (7%)
  • a group with a 3-man premade: 632 (8%)

Win rates were as follows:

  • vs 5 solo: 61% (2464/4012)
  • 1 duo, 3 solo: 54% (1604/2978)
  • 2 duo, 1 solo: 52% (386/548)

Tl;dr, Premades play teams of mostly solo players the majority of the time and destroy them.

Full report: https://github.com/richkcho/league_of_tilt/blob/master/other/flaws_of_dynamic_queue.md

269 Comments

Glîtchy6/16/2016, 8:32:39 PM102 votes

5 man teams win 70% of games, I vote that we get solo queue back, sick of losing to teams of toxic brats

Flagrock6/17/2016, 12:53:55 AM44 votes

I just want to point out the fact that you complain about Riot's "stats" yet you are falling into some very big traps for statistical analysis.

  1. The sample is NOT random at all. You even admit it's ONLY challenger/master players. So, by that statement, you admit you are trying to do a POPULATION distribution and look at that, which assumptions used for random samples CANNOT be applied.

  2. You are looking at the top .11% of the population. These are the BEST players in the population and are the fringes of the population. You could even say they are "outliers" in a data set for how much different their skill level is compared to the rest of the population (think SKT skill vs. normal player).

  3. Your data set is TINY when you look at certain "samples" in your data. A group of 45 games to tell you what the ENTIRE population does? Most statistical analysis samples require AT LEAST 100 to be big enough to not have HUGE issues with potential skewed data and making sure the confidence interval and standard deviation is not large.

  4. RIOT ADMITS THERE IS PROBLEMS IN THIS SMALL SUBSET OF PLAYERS. So, you are simply proving that what Riot has stated is right? Ok, no one ever argued that Master+ was not an awful place for matchmaking.

  5. If** you want to find out what 95% of the population is facing in Dynamic Que matchmaking, TAKE A SAMPLE OF BRONZE/SILVER/GOLD. **The majority of the population is in Bronze/Silver/Gold, not Master. As you can see with pick/bans and winrates if you look at a breakdown, different divisions have a vastly different meta game.

This is not to say that the dynamic Que matchmaking is not broken. If we are going to get mad, let's at least use the RIGHT data and fix the RIGHT problems. It's really similar to champion balance: gutting champions does nothing productive because a new champion becomes an issue. Correct nerfs/buffs makes the game balanced, and CORRECT CHANGES to the ranked system will fix it.

tl;dr: The statistics are misleading. Dynamic Que could very well be that awful at lower elos, but let's actually use correct stats instead of trying to mislead people. Players complain about Riot's misleading stats, don't pull the same crap.

Dominick Destine6/16/2016, 8:26:43 PM25 votes

The team facing the 5 man premade had the following distribution of premades:
5 solo: 255 (23%) win rate vs 5 solo: 70% (179/255)

WOW , EFF OFF RIOT. THAT IS UNACCEPTABLE AS F%%%. I penta-queued recently and we steamrolled everyone, no wonder.... GIVE US SOLO QUEUE.

dukevonart6/16/2016, 11:30:00 PM13 votes

This is probably the most important piece of information to those posting in the original post:

I amassed 61977 matches which included at least one challenger or master player.

  • So the data is generally of an elo of Challenger to Master. (If you aren't in that tier of players, the data analysis probably is NOT going to generalize to you.)

  • At the highest levels of elo the match making system does not work nearly as well as it does anywhere else. (This is mostly because there aren't enough people of equal rating to actually match against)

Here is probably the second most important piece of information that people seem to be ignoring:

The matches were analyzed to find premades, premades being a group of players who have played at least 10 games together on the same team. There were a total of 1129 games which had at least one 5 man premade.

  • The middle set of win rates that are being quoted by the OP are based on 1129 games of Challenger to Master players. (So 1.8% of the total games surveyed)

  • The 70% win rate against 5 SOLO PLAYERS is taken from 255 games of the 1129 of games with a 5 man pre-made while. Which equates to this happening 0.4% of time within the given sample. So it doesn't happen all that much.

ThePartyLeader6/16/2016, 8:21:36 PM13 votes

If the games all included one master's or challenger player then these stats don't actually mean anything to 95% of the player base.

ofart6/16/2016, 9:02:57 PM13 votes

I want solo stats officially separate from DQ. It just makes no sense to average out rankings anymore than it would make sense to average out all grades in school with no way of getting specifics. If I get a D in Geometry and an A in Algebra, by Riot's logic my ranking would be C+. It's true but also pointless and meaningless due to how ambiguous that is. Don't ruin this game as a competitive endeavor.

I know DQ is a cash grab aimed to get more people invested in the game due to social elements (also why groups get more rewards at the expense of solo players) and because ranked players tend to spend more money on it but if you destroy the game's competitive mode in the process, no one will care anyway eventually. Right now, ranked is basically normals with better matchmaking so the fire to play it as a demonstration of skill is gone and it's hard to take the game as seriously as before. How can we even have a "ladder" system when you can't directly compare players on the same ladder because some might only play 4 mans while others are playing only solo etc.

When you've created a ranked system that even under ideal circumstances with short queue times and 50% winrate for every queue configuration is still meaningless for the primary purpose of a ranked system, you know something's wrong. If you ever reach that, matchmaking will be good but the ladder will still be useless as long as there is no separation between queue configurations for rankings.

69982196_DEL6/16/2016, 10:21:50 PM12 votes

"99% of the times there will be premades of the same size and skill in both teams"

Fuck you Riot.

HowPlayGAEM6/16/2016, 9:49:51 PM9 votes

[deleted]

kaltenashes6/16/2016, 9:01:32 PM7 votes

Rito, plz

premades vs premades, solo vs solos

xBushx6/16/2016, 7:16:38 PM6 votes

Riot did give this info. Not exact numbers but did provide this info. You're the one saying it doesn't exist but did you look?

RoodToob6/16/2016, 8:35:38 PM5 votes

This is old stats. Riot knows this, Its why 4+ premades are disabled in Diamond+. Since then they have made premades match against higher MMR players than any of the individuals of the premade

Sammystorm6/16/2016, 9:02:30 PM4 votes

Although interesting these stats are largely meaningless. It doesn't use alot of factors such as ranks of each individual player or experience with champions.

BloodyTompon6/17/2016, 1:46:02 AM1 votes

That is an improvement. The win rate vs team's of 5 solos dropped 70% to 61%.