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Time management, FF@15, comebacks, and game theory

Karunamon·2/12/2019, 4:46:40 PM·5 votes·2,541 views

Wanted to flesh this thinking out a bit and get some feedback.

(Warning: math)

Hypothesis: Quick surrender of games that are not close matches at the 15 minute mark allows you to play more games and win more often in your limited playtime.

There's a problem with this game - comebacks are rare, and playing from behind in a game that you hold a very small chance of turning around is incredibly tilting. Nobody likes getting their face stomped in for extended periods of time. Whether that be because you had trolls on your team, or because you just plain didn't play well, the reason is irrelevant to this idea.

Let's say you play 100 games. With an average game length of around half an hour, that's about 50 hours of time into League.

Let's also say you have a ~50% WR because you've been playing a while and the rank system has you in your proper skill area. That means you won 50 games and lost 50 games.

So far so good, You spent 25 hours winning and 25 hours losing.

Now remember that FF@15 is a thing, allowing a team in a blown game to save having to play half the game. We also have to remember that while rare, comebacks are possible. Let's say that 10% of those lost games were close enough for a comeback to happen.

Of those 50 lost games in our hundred, that means that only 5 of them had a realistic shot at a comeback. The other 45 were the usual notta-chance stompfest.

As the motivational types out there will tell us, a surrender is a guaranteed loss. If you managed to FF@15 all 50 of those lost games, you gave up 5 possible wins.

What about the other 45?

If you managed to FF@15 every single one of those lost, no-comeback-likely games, you saved yourself 11.25 hours of stressful, tilt-inducing gameplay.

What's more, that 11.25 hours works out to an additional 22 games you could have played in the same amount of time!

That means that, assuming your 50% winrate holds, you sacrificed 5 wins for a likely 11 wins.

We can reduce this down to a simple rule: For every 2 lost games FF@15'd, you get to play an additional game in the same amount of time

Addition: Even taking comebacks into account, if you win approximately half your games, regularly FF@15ing games that are not even by the 15 minute mark means you get to play more winning games in the same amount of time

Corollary: The higher your average winrate, the more beneficial it is for you to quickly exit a game that's not even by the midpoint. (Since you are more likely to win with more games played, playing more games should be a priority).

Conclusion: FF@15 is a good thing for your rank and should be your policy for most games that are not even or favorable by the halfway point.

Additional conclusion: Since you're spending less time being tilted, application of this rule should boost your winrate in the long run.

Is this healthy for the game? Not even.

Is this loser talk? Technically yes, but the time management aspect means that it's still the optimal path to take for the average casual player.

14 Comments

Wolfalisk3182/12/2019, 5:05:57 PM6 votes

You aren't wrong about these things, but you're operating on the assumption that everyone who plays this game is a min/maxer and/or implying that they should be.

There's a lot wrong with this game but one subject that is seldom discussed is that min/max attitude. It has given rise to public perceptions that you should only play certain Champions at certain times, that you should only build certain items or use certain runes, and that deviation from any accepted "norm" constitutes a wrongdoing or inting. This extends to the FF15 issue too though it is a little more nuanced.

Again I think you are correct, and it's the pragmatic thing to do if someone wants to climb. It's just absolute insanity that we are in a situation where games aren't worth playing out.

Titanium702/12/2019, 5:45:50 PM4 votes

Sadly alot of what you wrote are plain assumptions and made up 'data', while also mixing up subjective and somewhat objective arguments (sometimes in one sentence).

This is clear biased post without any actual statistic value.

IF you play soley for fun (why are you plaing ranked then?) FF15 is indeed your best option. You explained quite well why you don't want to play from behind and I can accept that.

If you play to climb. That's a whole other story. Funny enough in your post you prooved why FF15/FF in general sucks!

Even putting your fantasy number of 10% as a base. That the difference of going 50-50 VS 55-45 which is a W/L of 50% (zero climb) VS 55% (which is solid climbing)

While you're correct about the part that FF15 gets more attractive if you already have a highly postive winrate in reality that's rarely the case. Especially considering the 4 other players in the team that need to be in a similar spot.

Now sidenotes that also use assumptions.

  1. Knowing when a you reach a gamestate that is not recoverable is hard. The further you go down the ladder the harder it gets until it quite impossible once you reach Gold. While I can agree you should surrender games below a 5% chance of winning, noone has any clue when such a number is correct.

  2. The 10% you made up. (Which is the problem of the post since you entire conclusion (if you can call it one) resolves around this made upp number) If you're telling me that out of all of my looses 90% were already decided at 15 - I can't do anything but laugh. 75-25 W/L in the most extreme cases is all I could ever agree one when looking at any gamestate below Master at 15!

  3. Smart Dodging/FF15.

  • You find your selfe in a team with 4 APs VS 2 Tanks. DODGE! You wont win this. If you didn't realize this in Champ select it's your own mistake. (Once you're into the game and not stomping I can agree on a surrender quite fast. )

  • You have 3 scaling Champions and the enemy panth is 10-0, PLAY THIS GAME! Every minute passing increases your chance of winning. (As long a play smart and dont focus on how to flame the guy that went 0-6 against him). You can also DODGE this game! Playing with stuff like Veigar/Vanye/Shyvana vs Lee/Lucian/LB I can GUARANTEE this game will be frustrating! YOu will have to work hard and play from behind before getting the winning donate at you @30. If you play with a certain amount of fun in mind you easily avoid that. Take the -3 LP and save your selfe a headache!

  1. Morale, that's the psychological component.

Lossing a long game you could have FF15 is tilting for some people. Being tilted lowers your chance of winning the next game. Pro FF15.

VS

Being confronted with a FF15- / FF-Vote is tilting for some people. Being tilted lowers the chance of the game you're in. Contra FF15.

Once again: Judging when the game is lost and drags out until you go tilted into the next match. VS Judging when asking for FF15 and the chatting caused by it might be the REASON why the game is lost in the end is hard.

From a personal point of view I'd say a FF15 is 9 out of 10 times nothing but a morale killer. (But hey made up numbers. ^^ I wont create a conclusion based on it!)

TL:DR: I hate pseudo science so much....

Kattzy2/13/2019, 10:42:33 PM3 votes

  1. You are not including the amount of time it takes to find a match, pick/ban and get into the game. I generally have really short timers, and it still takes like 10 min to actually get into another match. I can't imagine how long this must be for non-supp mains at higher elos.

  2. Your assumption that 10% of FF@15 matches could have been wins is a pretty random guess and does not seem to be based on anything other than speculation.

  3. You assume that winning is the only metric that matters. I personally play this game to have fun. I try hard to win every single time but it's still a fun game even when my team is losing.

5050BS2/13/2019, 1:57:03 AM2 votes

If I did this I would be at 10% win rate because EVERY game is shit by 15m. Its when We hit 30m that you can pull it back and win.

Butterwood2/13/2019, 11:13:56 PM2 votes

Everyone's definition of an "unwinnable" game at 15 minutes is different, so I can't buy in to this. I also think the suggested "10% of 'unwinnable' games at 15 mins are actuaully winnable" prompt is nonsense. The fact of the matter is that those huge, unexpected comebacks are one of the best experiences you can have in league, and surrendering those so that you can climb a bit faster is incredibly short-sighted.

Badleaf2/14/2019, 1:06:30 PM2 votes

I think FF@15 should be applied if it gets 4/5 votes. I don't understand why it isn't. Literally 9 players continuing because one guy wants to.

GripaAviara2/14/2019, 1:52:15 PM1 votes

I've seen so many FF at 15 because jungle goes bot, he dies with the whole bot lane: GG game lost, while I smash for example the top lane and they aren't even behind except mid all playing late game champions.

Also there's the fallacy that it saves time. Sometimes I have time to play 1 game, since i can allocate 1h. Don't want to FF at 15.

Then there's the math problem in this issue. With an average 25 minutes a game. If it takes 10 minutes just to start the game and the fact to get back my lost LP it takes +1.2 games, and the fact you still have a game ahead if winning; with this game it means a whopping 3 games equivalent (since you got 20 mins = 0.8 of an average game) you need below 33% win chance. And frankly, 1/4 games I play there are turnarounds. While smaller than 33%, I like those odds better since there's also the "FUN" factor; it's not fun to wait in lobby.

And when you add the fact, 1/4 games there's a troll/griefer and the 33% assumption is made that you win the next two games which happens 50% of the time, you realise even the math checks out in the long run. It's better not to FF unless the said troll/griefer game

Actually FF should be removed IMHO, it gives fuel to whinners and proliferates a defeatist attitude. It's one of the most toxic things in LoL