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Why are predicted points so arbitrary?

Kedalionis·3/13/2017, 8:37:53 PM·3 votes·894 views

I have been wondering about this for a while. Predictions seem to be rather independent of actual player performance. I get that they can be wildly off at the beginning of the season, but they should at least a little bit look at the actual player performance.

Here is an example (best game format): Currently, I see "Arrow" with a predicted points of 23 for week 8. I have absolutely no idea how a human or algorithm (if it works) would come up with that prediction. If we look at some stats here: Arrow has an average of 53.14 for two games (2x 26.57). In direct comparison with these opponents he had 50.28 points (28.12 + 22.16). His lowest week this split was 36.56 (week 2 with 14.40 + 22.16). Just assume his worst performance will happen twice in one week he'd get 28.8 points (2x 14.40).

All of these values are far above the predicted 23 points.

Now I do get that you rather predict the underlying scores (such as kills, deaths, assists) and then calculate the score as usual, but the same issue happens with the individual stats. (I'm not gonna write those out here, a bit too much work as they don't show up for individual games in the stats table.)

So what generates these predictions? This is puzzling me. Any insight would be appreciated.

4 Comments

Prince Adebayo3/14/2017, 12:26:40 AM1 votes

I'm pretty sure that predictions are based off of last year's performances. For example, Pobelter is estimated to get around 70 - 80 points per week, as he was one of the better mid-laners during the last split and because he plays for a good team. However, newcomers, such as Arrow and Moon, are estimated lower points as they are treated as rookies and play for previously bad teams.

Pseudo Q3/14/2017, 10:12:02 AM1 votes

Last week, Arrow was estimated to get around 44 points (Best) and 88 (First2) by Riot. So it just looks like the stats for one of his matches this week isn't being counted for some reason.

BlamesTheJungler3/14/2017, 9:44:27 PM1 votes

For week 8, LOD is expected to underperform (as usual) against TL and Envy. Seriously, predicting LOD will get 37 points is severely underestimating him.

I can understand that maybe he'll have hard time against TL's bot lane (Doublelift and Adrian) but against Envy? Really?

Week 7, LOD achieved 103 points, which is rather spectacular against Echo Fox and CLG (Mid-tier teams). Against Envy and TL though, Dignitas should be raking in fantasy points.