NA Bracketology
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Ladies and Gentleman, thank you for riding on the NA LCS Express! We'll be passing through our last stop before playoffs this week, and here's a sneak peak of what you should be watching for. Everything's mostly settled at the top and the bottom of the standings, but in the middle, it's a race for choice playoffs spots!
Cloud 9 dominated the North American scene last year, and while they haven't been nearly as dominant this year, they're almost certainly guaranteed a top two finish. The only way they could fall from the top two would be to go 0-4 while Counter Logic Gaming goes 4-0. They finished 25-3 last season, and are a 4-0 week away from finishing 24-4 this season, cementing them as one of the most dominant teams in North America, improving while being the only North American team without a roster change from last season. This season, however, has been slightly rockier, with uncharacteristic losses to Dignitas and XDG and unexpected rivals in Team SoloMid and Counter Logic Gaming.
Game to watch: vs Team SoloMid (Saturday, 5:00 PM PDT) – If Cloud 9 wins, they can afford to drop a game to the red-hot Counter Logic Gaming and still take first by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker with Team SoloMid. Moreover, they would assert their dominance as the No. 1 North American team.
Cloud 9 isn't the only 20-4 team in North America; Team SoloMid is neck-and-neck with them. Last season, Team SoloMid had seemed to fall out of favor. They took third during the Summer Split season, and underperformed in the group stages at Worlds due to spotty play-calling. But with Bjergsen replacing Reginald mid, they are once again in contention to be the top team in North America. Their spot in the top two is safe, though. Even if they go 0-4 and Counter Logic Gaming goes 4-0
Game to watch: vs Cloud 9 (Saturday, 5:00 PM PDT) – If Team SoloMid wins, they will likely continue on to first with victories over XDG, Evil Geniuses, and Coast, against whom they are a combined 8-1 this season. As well, they will have broken the concept of Cloud 9 as the top North American team.
Below the dynamic duo, we have Counter Logic Gaming on an island. Short of the aforementioned scenario with Cloud 9, they can't break into the top 2. On the other hand, it is literally impossible for them to lose the third place slot to any team, with fourth-place Dignitas 6 games behind. Don't look to see Counter Logic Gaming slack off, though. They struggled at the start of the season without Dexter, but fresh off of their victory over Team SoloMid, look like a strong contender in the playoffs.
Game to watch: vs. Cloud 9 (Friday, 2:00 PM PDT) – Counter Logic Gaming is on a 10-2 streak, with losses only to Cloud 9 and Team SoloMid. If they can take this game vs Cloud 9, they will move to 2-2 on the season against them. North American teams have only scored 7 LCS victories against Cloud 9, and Counter Logic Gaming is responsible for 2 of them. The only team which has beaten Cloud 9 more is XDG, with 3 victories. This one's for the record books...and the egos.
Dignitas currently has a one game lead over Curse and Coast, and a secured tiebreaker over Coast, so they're just looking to hold their lead. They play against both Curse and Coast this week, so their fate is in their own hands. They've recently replaced Scarra with Goldenglue, so now is the time to show what they've got.
Game to watch: vs. Curse (Friday, 3:00 PM PDT) – Curse is Dignitas' biggest rival at this point. Curse is 3-0 against them this season, so a loss here would put Dignitas behind from the start of the week.
Curse has struggled to find the right support to go with Cop, not that you'd know it from his consistent performance. Now that they're out of road, it's time to put up or shut up, and you can bet the focus will be on Cop to shine.
Game to watch: vs. Dignitas (Friday, 3:00 PM PDT) – A win here puts Curse off to a strong start over Coast here, not to mention giving them the 4-0 sweep vs Dignitas.
For a moment, Coast was really starting to look like a top contender, with a 5-1 spree including a victory over Team SoloMid. Since then, however, they've lost 6 of 8, and struggled to find any consistency. As the season changes and the tides come in, Coast is running out of ground to stand on. As long as they don't go 0-4, they're through to the playoffs, thanks to head-to-head tie-breakers vs both Evil Geniuses (4-0) and XDG (3-1). But the last thing they want to do is face Counter Logic Gaming again, after 4 straight losses. If they can nudge out Curse or Dignitas, they'll stand a much better chance of avoiding relegation. They only have 2 wins vs teams that aren't Evil Geniuses or XDG, though, so it's going to be rough.
Game to watch: vs. Curse (Friday, 1:00 PM PDT) – Coast's best chance is to knock Curse down; a win here would leave them with a 2-2 head-to-head record and force a tiebreaker if they end with even records.
For XDG, the prognosis is grim. The only way for XDG to sneak into the playoffs is to go 4-0 and hope Curse, Coast, or Dignitas have an 0-4 week. Unfortunately for them, their schedule is downright terrifying, with games against both Cloud 9 and Team SoloMid. XDG have shown they can be a threat to any team, but taking down Cloud 9 and Team SoloMid in the same week is a tall order.
Game to watch: vs. Team SoloMid (Sunday, 2:00 PM PDT) – It probably won't mean much for their chances of avoiding relegation, but winning here would give them bragging rights, with 1 victory this season against every team but Team SoloMid, something no team outside of the top 3 can boast.
EG's week is only slightly less intimidating. They can – in theory - afford to lose one game (or to have Curse win one game). Winning vs Curse will go a long way for them, but they'll still have to come up big against Team SoloMid or Counter Logic Gaming - not to mention cleaning up against XDG – to have any chance.
Game to watch: vs. Team SoloMid (Friday, 5:00 PM PDT) – The road ahead of them is long, but their hardest game is their first game, and it's do or die vs Team Solo Mid
Mattias "Gentleman Gustaf" Lehman is a League of Legends mathcrafter turned esports journalist who spends his spare time staring at mountains of League of Legends data. Follow him @GentlemanGustaf on Twitter.
Cloud 9 (20-4)
Cloud 9 dominated the North American scene last year, and while they haven't been nearly as dominant this year, they're almost certainly guaranteed a top two finish. The only way they could fall from the top two would be to go 0-4 while Counter Logic Gaming goes 4-0. They finished 25-3 last season, and are a 4-0 week away from finishing 24-4 this season, cementing them as one of the most dominant teams in North America, improving while being the only North American team without a roster change from last season. This season, however, has been slightly rockier, with uncharacteristic losses to Dignitas and XDG and unexpected rivals in Team SoloMid and Counter Logic Gaming.
Game to watch: vs Team SoloMid (Saturday, 5:00 PM PDT) – If Cloud 9 wins, they can afford to drop a game to the red-hot Counter Logic Gaming and still take first by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker with Team SoloMid. Moreover, they would assert their dominance as the No. 1 North American team.
Team SoloMid (20-4)
Cloud 9 isn't the only 20-4 team in North America; Team SoloMid is neck-and-neck with them. Last season, Team SoloMid had seemed to fall out of favor. They took third during the Summer Split season, and underperformed in the group stages at Worlds due to spotty play-calling. But with Bjergsen replacing Reginald mid, they are once again in contention to be the top team in North America. Their spot in the top two is safe, though. Even if they go 0-4 and Counter Logic Gaming goes 4-0
Game to watch: vs Cloud 9 (Saturday, 5:00 PM PDT) – If Team SoloMid wins, they will likely continue on to first with victories over XDG, Evil Geniuses, and Coast, against whom they are a combined 8-1 this season. As well, they will have broken the concept of Cloud 9 as the top North American team.
Counter Logic Gaming (16-8)
Below the dynamic duo, we have Counter Logic Gaming on an island. Short of the aforementioned scenario with Cloud 9, they can't break into the top 2. On the other hand, it is literally impossible for them to lose the third place slot to any team, with fourth-place Dignitas 6 games behind. Don't look to see Counter Logic Gaming slack off, though. They struggled at the start of the season without Dexter, but fresh off of their victory over Team SoloMid, look like a strong contender in the playoffs.
Game to watch: vs. Cloud 9 (Friday, 2:00 PM PDT) – Counter Logic Gaming is on a 10-2 streak, with losses only to Cloud 9 and Team SoloMid. If they can take this game vs Cloud 9, they will move to 2-2 on the season against them. North American teams have only scored 7 LCS victories against Cloud 9, and Counter Logic Gaming is responsible for 2 of them. The only team which has beaten Cloud 9 more is XDG, with 3 victories. This one's for the record books...and the egos.
Dignitas (10-14)
Dignitas currently has a one game lead over Curse and Coast, and a secured tiebreaker over Coast, so they're just looking to hold their lead. They play against both Curse and Coast this week, so their fate is in their own hands. They've recently replaced Scarra with Goldenglue, so now is the time to show what they've got.
Game to watch: vs. Curse (Friday, 3:00 PM PDT) – Curse is Dignitas' biggest rival at this point. Curse is 3-0 against them this season, so a loss here would put Dignitas behind from the start of the week.
Curse (9-15)
Curse has struggled to find the right support to go with Cop, not that you'd know it from his consistent performance. Now that they're out of road, it's time to put up or shut up, and you can bet the focus will be on Cop to shine.
Game to watch: vs. Dignitas (Friday, 3:00 PM PDT) – A win here puts Curse off to a strong start over Coast here, not to mention giving them the 4-0 sweep vs Dignitas.
Coast (9-15)
For a moment, Coast was really starting to look like a top contender, with a 5-1 spree including a victory over Team SoloMid. Since then, however, they've lost 6 of 8, and struggled to find any consistency. As the season changes and the tides come in, Coast is running out of ground to stand on. As long as they don't go 0-4, they're through to the playoffs, thanks to head-to-head tie-breakers vs both Evil Geniuses (4-0) and XDG (3-1). But the last thing they want to do is face Counter Logic Gaming again, after 4 straight losses. If they can nudge out Curse or Dignitas, they'll stand a much better chance of avoiding relegation. They only have 2 wins vs teams that aren't Evil Geniuses or XDG, though, so it's going to be rough.
Game to watch: vs. Curse (Friday, 1:00 PM PDT) – Coast's best chance is to knock Curse down; a win here would leave them with a 2-2 head-to-head record and force a tiebreaker if they end with even records.
XDG (6-18)
For XDG, the prognosis is grim. The only way for XDG to sneak into the playoffs is to go 4-0 and hope Curse, Coast, or Dignitas have an 0-4 week. Unfortunately for them, their schedule is downright terrifying, with games against both Cloud 9 and Team SoloMid. XDG have shown they can be a threat to any team, but taking down Cloud 9 and Team SoloMid in the same week is a tall order.
Game to watch: vs. Team SoloMid (Sunday, 2:00 PM PDT) – It probably won't mean much for their chances of avoiding relegation, but winning here would give them bragging rights, with 1 victory this season against every team but Team SoloMid, something no team outside of the top 3 can boast.
Evil Geniuses (6-18)
EG's week is only slightly less intimidating. They can – in theory - afford to lose one game (or to have Curse win one game). Winning vs Curse will go a long way for them, but they'll still have to come up big against Team SoloMid or Counter Logic Gaming - not to mention cleaning up against XDG – to have any chance.
Game to watch: vs. Team SoloMid (Friday, 5:00 PM PDT) – The road ahead of them is long, but their hardest game is their first game, and it's do or die vs Team Solo Mid
Mattias "Gentleman Gustaf" Lehman is a League of Legends mathcrafter turned esports journalist who spends his spare time staring at mountains of League of Legends data. Follow him @GentlemanGustaf on Twitter.
WAT IS THIS
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ez 4 TSM to win
