Group C preview and predictions

Group C

SKT, EDG, H2K, BKT

Spoiler alert, this group is a wee bit top heavy. SKT and EDG are potentially the two best teams at worlds and they got drawn into the same group. As soon as EDG lost the semi-final match to LGD in the LPL summer playoffs, my first thought was “holy crap, that means we could have an SKT+EDG group” and also “good luck to anyone else who gets drawn into that group” Well, it actually happened, and H2K and BKT drew the shortest of straws by also being placed into the group with two of the best teams in the world.

This preview will be shorter than my previous posts. This is partly due to me wanting to change the format up this time. Also, there are already quality previews of both Group C and Group D which can be found on lolesports here:

http://worlds.lolesports.com/en_US/worlds/articles/breaking-down-worlds-2015-group-c

http://worlds.lolesports.com/en_US/worlds/articles/breaking-down-worlds-2015-group-d

With this post, I wanted to talk about some big picture concepts and some potential upset scenarios more-so than the detailed breakdowns I did for groups A and B. Hope you like it.

SKT

Let’s talk holistically about the Korean region for a bit. At the end of the 2014 season, over 20 starters from KeSPA teams left their organizations to join Chinese squads. Every starter from both Samsung White and Samsung Blue (the two best teams at worlds 2014) joined up with various LPL or LSPL teams. Additionally, the best players from some other teams (like the KT Arrows’ Rookie and KaKAO) also left for China. Essentially the LPL took the majority of the LCK’s best players and left the rest of the league to rebuild.

One team that was untouched by the Korean exodus to China was SKT. While SKT did “lose” Impact and Piglet to NA LCS teams, it is arguable whether they would have even started during the 2015 season, as the one team per organization policy was forcing a merger between SKT K and SKT S, and Marin and Bang were the front-runners for Top and ADC.

I also want to add that even though Korea has the best organizational structure, the players Korea lost were irreplaceable. Something that Korea did more than any other region since 2012 was cycle players rapidly through their starting lineups while searching for the very best. The players on Samsung White and Blue were the results of 3 years of evolution of Korean League of Legends.

In my eyes, SKT is the last of the Korean superpowers from 2014. They narrowly missed worlds in 2014 by losing to Samsung White in the 2nd/3rd place tiebreaker and then losing to NJWS in the finals of the regional qualifier. Essentially, the teams above SKT were dismantled and SKT actually became stronger with the merger between their K and S squads.

The spring split was mainly about SKT finding their groove as they learned to play together as a merged team. They came together halfway through and swept their second series of Bo3’s. The summer was their coming of age. SKT went 17-1 in Bo3 matches and at one point had a 14 Bo3 winning streak before losing a set to CJ Entus. SKT also win the spring and summer finals 3-0. SKT is head and shoulders above the rest of the Korean region, and it is their duty to extend the reign of Korean teams at the World Championships this year.

EDG

EDG was ridiculously dominant for 95% of the LPL season. They were 1st in the Spring split regular season. They were 1st in LPL spring playoffs. They were 1st at MSI. They were 1st in the Summer split regular season. They even won both seasons of Demacia cup (a tournament that runs concurrent to the LPL, with more teams)

That should show how uncharacteristic it was of EDG when they lost the summer playoff semi-finals 3-0 to LGD, and then even more shockingly lost the 3rd place match 3-1 to iG. They bounced back though, crushing through the regional qualifiers and only dropping a single game to lock down the #2 seed from the LPL.

When I was prepping with Spawn, we talked about the idea of a “spine” and how it related to EDG’s playstyle. Basically EDG laneswaps. A lot. When they laneswap, they generally keep the support and jungler fairly close together and work together to make plays. This leaves 1 person (either the top or the bottom laner) to freeze and generally fend for themselves, while the “spine” (Jungler and Support) support the other two lanes. I drew it here:

http://i.imgur.com/90exfXx.jpg?1

In this extremely well drawn example, the spine would be supporting the top and middle side of the map, with the bottom lane being responsible for freezing. In using this strategy, EDG’s support Meiko will often stay extremely low level for a very long time. At some point in the mid game, Meiko will go catch a large wave, and due to the various XP catch-up mechanics in league of legends (gaining more XP for killing or assisting in a kill of a higher lvl champion, or gaining increased experience if the average lvl in the game is much higher than yours) Meiko can catch up in experience by the mid and late game and be just fine.

This strategy is not completely unique to EDG. Many of the top teams are known for their Jungle/Support synergy. In many ways it is becoming just as important as ADC/Support synergy because in lane swap scenarios the support tends to interact more with the jungler than he does his ADC. Score and Piccabbo of KT Rolster have basically made worlds off of their Jungle/Support synergy. In my opinion EDG executes the “spine” better than anyone at worlds.

H2K

As mentioned earlier, these guys are extremely unlucky to get pulled into a group with two of the best teams at worlds. H2K is actually the #2 seed from Europe, despite finishing 3rd in both the summer and spring splits. Due to their cumulative championship points they snatched the second seed. The fact that H2K never secured a top 2 finish in the EU LCS is particularly concerning in this group. Considering the top 2 teams in each group advance to the bracket stage, and the fact that H2K couldn’t get top 2 in either EU LCS split…. Well… you do the math.

That doesn’t mean H2K should completely give up. In any sport, upsets can and do happen. It was just last year that a group was drawn with SSW and EDG as the first two participants, and the general consensus was that group was decided from the get go. When the groups actually happened, EDG underperformed, lost both games to SSW, and then lost 1 of 2 games to AHQ to force a tiebreaker. While SSW and EDG were eventually the teams to advance, it wasn’t as cut and dry as first anticipated.

H2K need to hope to pick up a single game against either SKT or EDG, and then if either SKT or EDG 2-0 one another, H2K could force a tiebreaker game. This should be their goal.

Bangkok Titans

If you thought H2K were an underdog, let me introduce you to BKT. Last year before Taiwan broke away from the GPL, the Bangkok Titans were a team near the bottom of the GPL. This year, with so much of the leagues talent pool moving to the LMS, BKT thrived and was able to qualify for the IWC.

During the IWC they were able to win the finals against Chiefs (OCE) despite having a rough group stage (3-3). In previous group stage articles I have underestimated/taken for granted LMS teams because the relative strength of the region remains largely untested. With that in mind, many viewers of the LMS would predict the Bangkok Titans to be a 5th-8th place LMS team. Now they are in a group with SKT and EDG. Rough.

I think BKT should put all of their attention to defeating H2K. Beating the #2 seed from EU/the perceived 3rd best team in Europe as a wild card team from the GPL would go a long way in empowering that region to improve.

Predictions:

1st place: SKT

This is essentially the continuation of SKT’s bo5 at MSI which ended 3-2 in favor of EDG. I think that SKT has shown enough improvement through the summer split in LCK, and EDG has had enough turmoil with roster changes/sickness/their stumble in the playoffs, that SKT can take them down the second time around. Furthermore, SKT doesn’t play quite as slowly as they did during the spring and have picked up their pacing quite a bit. Add that to the fact that they have the best macro strategy in the world and you have a team poised for success. Did I mention they also have Faker?

2nd place: EDG

If EDG were in any other group I would place them first. Their teamfighting is immaculate and their laneswapping is stifling to the majority who face it. It’s not easy to look at a team with the talent of EDG and not pick them to win a group. I look at the way EDG dismantles people pre-15 minutes and it’s damn scary. I also look at the way they come back in games and win through teamfighting and that is also terrifying. I think SKT is one of the few teams who can match up with EDG player for player, and even though EDG has strong strategy, I think they lose out slightly to SKT. I actually predict the group stage to go 1:1 and SKT to get 1st via a tiebreak match.

3rd place: H2K

H2K needs to go for the homerun in these groups. As mentioned earlier, their way out of this group would almost certainly be if they can take 1 out of 4 games from SKT/EDG, and hope that the team they beat also gets 2-0’d by the #1 team in the group. Then they would also need to win a tiebreaker. It is not very likely due to the fact that they didn’t even finish top 2 in EU, but H2K needs to not give up hope.

4th place: BKT

Nothing against BKT, but they are greatly outclassed in this group.

That does it. Also, check out my Group A and Group B previews if you missed them. (they are long)

Group A:

http://boards.na.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/esports/NlpIcaTl-group-a-preview-and-predictions

Group B:

http://boards.na.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/esports/HYpEPd4A-group-b-preview-and-predictions

Also, due to being in Berlin for a caster bootcamp, I will most likely not find the time to do a group D preview justice. I hope you enjoyed reading A B and C, and I’ll see everyone at worlds. HYPE!

Oh... Group D predictions, since I won’t be doing a full article.

**1st LGD **

– Best team in the group by a country mile. Can win every lane without jungle pressure.

2nd KT

– Rely heavily on the early snowball. Piccaboo and Score need to get a lead so they can roam the map

**3rd OG **

– Surprisingly diverse and also derives a lot of their strength from the synergy of Mithy and Amazing. They present a very intriguing matchup for KT and could easily slide to 2nd with some good play

**4th TSM **

– Haven’t adapted well to the changing game. Lustboy and Santorin have not displayed the required synergy to keep up with the other Support/Jungle combos in this group. Will need to change their playstyle during boot camp to succeed in this group.

See you Oct. 1st