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Experts predict who will own the Rift in the MSI Semifinals

Riot·5/12/2016, 11:12:07 AM·0 votes·19,458 views

The 2016 Mid-Season Invitational here in Shanghai, China is likely to go down as one of the most diverse, competitive, and surprising tournaments in recent history -- and it hasn’t even finished yet.

Week 1 was a rollercoaster ride that saw Korea's SKTelecom T1 losing four consecutive games for the first time in over 650 days. North America's Counter Logic Gaming defied all predictions to secure a 2nd seed for NA and became one of two teams in the tournament that managed to beat all other teams (the other being China’s Royal Never Give Up). And that was just the beginning.

Now we’re about to see some loaded Semifinals. If RNG vs. SKT is anything like their rematch,  then we’re in for an explosive Best of 5.

Then, we have Flash Wolves vs. CLG. While the North Americans went 2-0 against the LMS during the Round Robin, Flash Wolves’ support SwordArt still shot back that he thought CLG was a weaker team in the competition. And now, they’ve had almost a week to prepare their revenge -- so expect FW to come back stronger and harder for one hell of a Best of 5 series.

The players are almost ready to hit the Rift for the Knockout Stage of MSI. Ahead of the next round, we caught up with our casters here in Shanghai and back home to find out their predictions for the upcoming 2016 Mid-Season Invitational Knockout Stage.

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Aidan “Zirene” Moon

I think SKT will win 3-1. A fully powered SKT beats a fully powered RNG, and with the performances that SKT displayed at the end of the Group Stage, I have confidence that this week of practice will get the SKT team back into the Playoffs shape we had seen from them in the LCK.

SKT showed uncharacteristic flaws (wrong runes, not taking ultimate at Level 6, overstaying in lane, ganking with a buff disadvantage early game, etc.) which are easily remedied in a week's time. RNG on the other hand have been consistent in their performances across 2016. They've been dominant, but they're starting to be challenged by those at MSI who can answer the high risk of a late game team fight to decide the match. And that's what SKT have started to go back to.

SKT found success later on at the 2016 Mid-Season Invitational by playing through their AD carry Bang (who is first in Damage Per Minute at 774! The next highest player is CLG's Stixxay with 676 DPM!). If they continue to highlight Bang's play throughout their series against RNG -- especially in contrast to the double-edged sword tendencies by RNG's risky team fighter Wuxx -- SKT can take home the victory for Korea and bring their region one step closer to claiming the only international League of Legends tournament title it's missing.

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Counter Logic Gaming beats Flash Wolves 3-1 not just because of their 2-0 victory during the Group Stage, but also because of the stylistic advantage for CLG. CLG like to focus bottom lane with their double Teleports and NL/Swordart have proven to be exploitable in this tournament.

Stixxay has shown himself to be an unexpected S tier carry for his team, boasting the highest kills at MSI with 73 (21 more than the next highest player), alongside Aphromoo (the assist leader of MSI at 117, averaging 11.7 assists a game!) on ranged supports that don't have to commit as hard to a bot lane trade -- and who can enable his ADC to go crazy.

There's talk of how Karsa and Maple are better than Xmithie and Huhi -- and that may be true, as individuals. But in the context of team play, it's CLG's jungle and mid who hold the advantage. Overall, CLG have shown they have the ability to stand strong against the Flash Wolves and take North America to their first appearance in the Finals of a Riot run International Tournament.

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David “Phreak” Turley

For RNG vs. SKT it’s tight. I’m going to go ahead and say Royal over SKT. When they fought both games it was super close. Game 1 was a huge early game win for Royal, then it came down to a 60 minute team fight that either team could have won. The second game was a similar situation and it feels like the Chinese team is more on point. Maybe if the Korean’s shape up, they improve, but I think the Chinese squad is still the favorite.

I think CLG are the favorite here overall. Flash Wolves are the weakest team in the Semifinals. Okay, so they 2-0’d SKT, but this is the best possible Semifinal for CLG.

Trevor “Quickshot” Henry

I think Royal Never Give Up are going to win because their players are performing better, they’ve got a massive stadium of support behind them, and I think the mistakes that have cost them games can get fixed in a week. If you look at Blank and Duke, they’re being outperformed by their opposites MLXG and Looper, and I think that’s going to be a big problem in Best of 5s.

I think CLG can take down Flash Wolves relatively easy, maybe 3-0 or 3-1. Flash Wolves have shown more mistakes player wise, their lane swaps have been pretty poor, and I think CLG is the better team. If you look at both teams over all ten games, CLG have had a higher ceiling, a better understanding of the tournament meta, and better performing players.

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Eefje “Sjokz” Depoortere​

I had an interview with EDG’s [coach] Aaron and he said if he were to change anything in SKT, it would be their support. I followed up on that and he explained that it’s not because Wolf is a bad player, it’s that his priorities lie differently. He’s great in lane, but he’s not good at things that are important in the tournament and in the meta. Things like roaming, jungle support, and map pressure. That’s why I think that Mata and RNG might have an edge.

I think CLG can be really proud of what they have accomplished already and how they’ve grown throughout the tournament. It’s really funny to me because I think I’ve interviewed them more at this event than I have in the past five seasons. The way they’ve evolved and their team fights have been amazing, so I think they’ll beat Flash Wolves.

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Isaac "Azael" Cummings-Bentley

I think SKT will win 3-2. SKT over RNG!? But SKT lost four straight games! Yep, and in the second half of the tournament they've looked much stronger -- including an absolutely incredible win over RNG to cap off an electric Group Stage. RNG have been incredible, and after watching them play in LPL Playoffs, I was a strong believer in Xiaohu and MLXG -- in addition to their World Champions Looper and Mata.

That said, I just can't bet against SKT, who have a history of performing on the biggest stages and who have a lot to prove after an underwhelming Group Stage performance. Throughout a five game series I feel that SKT will be able to adapt and outperform RNG, but just barely -- SKT take it in 5 games.

CLG looked very solid against Flash Wolves in the Group Stage, taking them down 2-0 despite SwordArt's claim that they looked the weakest of all teams except Turkey. CLG have shown diversity in their picks and compositions, have displayed superior team play, and have had standout performances in various games from all members. Looking at FW, I've been extremely impressed by Maple (especially on his Gangplank), but feel that they'll need more than he can give to take this series. CLG wins 3-1.

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Clement Chu

SKT's still headed into the Knockout Stage as the favorites. Having a better macro game and five days rest should be enough for them to shore up weaknesses and likely prepare for some unique picks. RNG actually has a lot of upside in the individual talents of the lineup, and I do expect them to win games in this series off of outplays and engages. In the end, SKT will win 3-2. 

The Flash Wolves vs. Counter Logic Gaming match-up will probably diverge more from Group Stage. The teams played each other on the first and last days of Group Stage, before the MSI-meta formed and after the teams had secured Top 4. Flash Wolves is definitely the team that needs to adapt more to get wins here.

While FW can probably be excused for experimenting, their early game really needs improving. Being down early from missed CS and failed gank attempts hurts if they go down a path to snowball. From a lineup perspective, this should have been the easier matchup for the Flash Wolves in the Top 4. But I think this will be a closer than expected set, with FW scrimming SKT non-stop. Yet given the last form we've see them in, CLG has the slight lead. I predict CLG win 3-2. 

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So, what do you think MSI has in store for us next? The Knockout Stage begins tomorrow, right here on Lolesports. Who do you think is going to make it all the way to the 2016 Mid-Season Invitational Finals? Do you agree with our casters? Let us know below or hit us up on Twitter with #MSI2016!

23 Comments

ArcaneEmperor5/12/2016, 11:36:37 AM8 votes

This has to be something approaching a historic moment, every single analyst in an article saying that CLG (not even just a NA team but CLG!) is the favorite to advance in an international tournament to the finals... lets all just have a moment of silence.

P.S. go CLG :D

EtherealDesign5/12/2016, 11:42:35 PM4 votes

"I think CLG are the favorite here overall." Hearing that said about an NA team makes me wonder if I'm in the Twilight Zone all of a sudden. But I'm going to let go of all my doubts and hope for nothing more than 15 great games, and maybe, just maybe, an international victory for USA. [slayer-pantheon-popcorn]

Legacy of Ra5/13/2016, 10:20:23 AM4 votes

I think it's astounding how accurate Zirene's predictions have been thus far. It's like he's psychic (or hey, just a really good analyst and knows how to do his job incredibly well). He called the SKT victory over RNG flawlessly. This isn't even touching on his other predictions throughout all of MSI which have for the most part been equally as accurate. To that end (and as a CLG fan), I'm going to agree with Zirene in them toppling FW 3 - 1 in a similar fashion of SKT's victory.

MSI finals featuring SKT and CLG? Man, that's my dream come true! [slayer-pantheon-thumbs]

ZuIvado5/12/2016, 11:45:04 PM3 votes

This is traditionally the part of the tournament where NA flops. So as much as I want believe, all the CLG hype isn't doing anything to make me less nervous.

2Boo4Berry5/13/2016, 2:06:33 AM3 votes

I'd just like to thank SwordArt for perfectly exemplifying the phrase "Talk shit, get hit" with his comments about CLG pre-Group Stage commencement. We can all learn from this.

WeChildrenOf God5/13/2016, 4:34:00 AM3 votes

Speaking as a C9 fan, I am incredibly proud of CLG for showing the massive improvements. They've done most of what I said they needed to do to become a world class team. Darshan has shown that he can actually play pure tanks and still do really well (as opposed to just being a split pusher or people who are mixed like Gnar). Stixxay has stepped up so much that it's scary. They just need to have Huhi continue to improve and have xmithie improve a bit and I can see NA (finally!) winning an international tournament. Go CLG! NA Represent!

idkidc1235/14/2016, 1:15:06 AM2 votes

Is it considered arrogance that FW thinks CLG is the weakest team when CLG finished second and went 2-0 vs FW during groups? I understand Bo1s are different from Bo3s/Bo5s in terms of how teams can adapt, but I find that a little bit too cocky coming from FW at this time. I guess we will have to see if they can back it up

DREADN0UGHT5/13/2016, 1:32:50 AM2 votes

Clg baby

im Cris5/12/2016, 3:31:14 PM1 votes

Let's go CLG and NA <3

Shadowatom5/12/2016, 6:31:30 PM1 votes

Both series will go to 5 games imo. Everyone's been really close. The best thing about this is that literally anyone in the semifinals can win. The winner of SKT vs RNG will probably be heavily favored, but both FW and CLG have shown they can beat the favorites (well, FW hasn't beaten RNG, but with a week of practice they probably can).

Saoquim5/13/2016, 7:11:49 AM1 votes

Most everyone is picking SKT and CLG. I guess I'm not paying attention, because I think RNG will best SKT rather easily and FW will beat CLG in a very close series.

InstagramMarc0ke5/12/2016, 11:31:22 PM1 votes

Ironic that the general consensus is SKT is the strongest team here, FW the weakest, yet those are the only two teams where one (agreed to be the worst!) has a 2-0 record against the other.

Eleshakai5/12/2016, 8:52:04 PM1 votes

I just know the games are going to be awesome. Can't wait to watch the replays after I get back from my trip this weekend. :)