Rusty's Guide to Group B

Worlds 2016 is just around the corner and we’ve got plenty to look forward to. Four groups, all stacked with world class talent, and each with its own story to tell.

Jatt has you covered with Group A, Krepficio has you covered with Group C, and Kobe has you covered with Group D. Now, in some crazy alphabet, I’m here to serve up the proverbial late bloomer that is Group B.

Now, I know what you're thinking. You’re thinking, “Why are they releasing Group B after Groups C and D?” Well, to that I’ll just remind you of the old grammatical rule of thumb: B before C except when it’s Rusty’s Group B guide.

In this group there are very different forces at play. On one hand, you’ve got the defending World Champions in SK Telecom T1 -- one of the most storied and revered teams in League of Legends history with a star player who is the closest thing we have to a Michael Jordan or a Lionel Messi. On the other hand, you have two teams that made it to Worlds through their Regional Qualifiers in Cloud9 and I May. Plus the Flash Wolves who rolled through Playoffs to become the No. 1 seed in the LMS.

To me, the most exciting thing about Group B is the unknown. The challenge of an unknown future is far more exciting than tales of an accomplished past.

Without wasting any more of your time, here is your Group B guide.

Group B

Flash Wolves, SK Telecom T1, I May, Cloud9

There are two groups this Worlds where Pick'Ems come to die. This is one of them. But that’s what's to be expected when you step into a group with the strongest No. 3 Seed, the strongest No. 2 Seed, and the weakest No. 1 Seed. Throw into the mix a relatively unknown powder keg of a Chinese team and you have the recipe for one very explosive group.

The general consensus is that SKT will progress, Flash Wolves will stumble, and Cloud9 and I May are strong wildcard options thrown into the mix. In this caster’s opinion, Group B is the least clear cut group at Worlds, and it's incredibly difficult to rank who finishes where. But I know that’s what you all came here for, so here we go…

1. Cloud9
2. SK Telecom T1
3. I May
4. Flash Wolves

Cue the shock and horror. You might say, “Did he really just do that? A Regional Qualifier winner above the defending World Champions?” Yes, I’m aware of how this might look, and I’m fully prepared for the pitchforks that will be thrown my way. I’d also like to prefix this with the fact that there a multitude of ways this group could play out -- but to me, this was the most compelling.

So now you have two options: You can join me for this ride, or grab your pitchfork.

Flash Wolves

[[{"fid":"23264","view_mode":"centered","fields":{"format":"centered","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":""},"tagName":"IMG","src":"http%3A//admin.prod.lolesports.com/s3/files/styles/centered/public/27004006235_0ccd253623_k_0.jpg%3Fitok%3DjDqEyKC4","type":"media","attributes":{"class":"media-element file-centered","height":"749","width":"992"}}]]

• Top: MMD
• Jungle: Karsa
• Mid: Maple
• ADC: NL
• Support: SwordArt

​How did they qualify? No. 1 seed from the LMS. Summer Split Champions.

Having been around since 2013, adopting the full Gama Bears roster, and promptly recycling it due to age limits, The Flash Wolves didn’t really start off as a team of stars. Akin to ROX Tigers from the LCK, they were nobodies. These nobodies quickly rose to fame by beating out LMS rivals ahq and Taipei Assassins. Piece by piece they cemented themselves within the league as a major force.

International showings have been strong from this team. They made it to Quarterfinals at Worlds 2015 and recently earned their region a Pool 1 berth thanks to their performance at the 2016 Mid-Season Invitational, where they beat SKT not once, but twice. Now, they'll face off again in Group B.

As the Flash Wolves were the ones who earned the Pool 1 berth for Worlds, it only seems fair that they are the ones who will take advantage of it. They beat ahq in Round 2 of the 2016 LMS Summer Split Playoffs, and absolutely smashed J-Team in the Finals -- who were favourites in the region -- to earn their rightful place at Worlds as the No. 1 seed from the LMS.

Something to note about this team is just how long they have been playing together. Most of the members have been on the Flash Wolves roster for years now. The only difference in their roster from the Worlds 2015 team -- which finished above ROX Tigers in Group A -- is they've swapped their longtime captain, Steak, out for MMD. Though it’s worth noting that Steak is now their analyst and coach, and MMD had been their substitute top laner for years and was already highly entrenched in the team.

[[{"fid":"23265","view_mode":"centered","fields":{"format":"centered","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":""},"tagName":"IMG","src":"http%3A//admin.prod.lolesports.com/s3/files/styles/centered/public/26832053085_3ae345ce9a_k.jpg%3Fitok%3DjRZ12-3w","type":"media","attributes":{"class":"media-element file-centered","height":"632","width":"992"}}]]

How do they make it out of the group?

• Through their primary carries Karsa and Maple. It’s no secret this is how Flash Wolves like to play. Karsa is a carry jungler who is incredibly proactive and puts a lot of his early attention toward the mid lane to make sure Maple gets ahead. If Maple gets ahead and they can successfully snowball that lead into the side lanes, then they should be able to take games off the best of them in Group B.
• With superior team synergy. This is a team that has been working together for a long time. It is the same roster that performed well at MSI and almost the same roster that made it out of groups back at Worlds 2015. Consistency of roster is something that is hugely underlooked. These guys have plenty of experience playing together internationally and may be able to use this experience to take wins off some of the greener teams in Cloud9 and I May.

How do they go home early?

• Through having a very basic win condition. The same reason why Flash Wolves could make it out of groups is also a double-edged sword for the team. They heavily rely on Maple and Karsa to carry, but if either of them fall behind it becomes incredibly problematic for the rest of the team. If Karsa gets out-pathed or out-jungled, they will struggle. Also, relying on Maple in a group with Faker, Jensen, and Athena is not something you’d set your watch to. Which brings me to my next point...
• Their weaker side lanes get exposed. MMD in the top lane is going to have a very rough time against the other top laners in this group. Impact, Duke, and AmazingJ are all incredibly tough lane opponents. Much like they played with Steak, MMD is often left on an island, and being stuck on an island with Impact isn’t something you’re going to send a postcard home about. On top of this, NL and SwordArt are arguably the weakest of the bot lane duos competing in the group.

My prediction: 4th place

I don’t think Flash Wolves are a bad team. I really don’t. But in this group I feel like they are going to have an incredibly hard time with the matchups that they’re facing. Karsa will work around Maple, and if he does, then the losing lanes will fall even further behind. Even if Maple does get ahead, the problem will eventually spill over into mid.

Karsa may be the best jungler in the group, and while I think that the jungle role has been empowered on this patch, I don’t think it will be enough to pull Flash Wolves out of groups and into the Quarterfinals. There isn’t a lot that separates the teams in Group B, but I think Flash Wolves will end their time in San Francisco in 4th place.

SK Telecom T1

[[{"fid":"23266","view_mode":"centered","fields":{"format":"centered","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":""},"tagName":"IMG","src":"http%3A//admin.prod.lolesports.com/s3/files/styles/centered/public/26927444982_3f1a4b4391_k.jpg%3Fitok%3DsSOdmZ5y","type":"media","attributes":{"class":"media-element file-centered","height":"683","width":"992"}}]]

• Top: Duke
• Jungle: Blank
• Mid: Faker
• ADC: Bang
• Support: Wolf

How did they qualify? No. 2 seed from Korea. Spring Split champions, Summer Split 3rd place. Qualified via Championship Points.

Any group with SKT coming in as the No. 2 seed is always going to be an interesting one. With their presence comes a daunting history. They are the first defending champions to return to Worlds, the only team to win two World Championships, and most recently they were winners at the 2016 Mid-Season Invitational. This is a history that is not so easily shrugged off by the rest of the teams in Group B, as they are no longer just competing against a team -- they’re competing against a dynasty.

Yet we know so little about SKT from Patch 6.15 and beyond. August 12 was the last time we saw them compete in the LCK, where they were reverse swept by KT -- a team that didn't even qualify for Worlds -- in a telecom war for the ages. Now we’re waiting to see how effectively they have used their time off the radar to prepare for the Worlds stage once again.

It might have been the easier option to put SKT higher on up on my rankings. The team has very defined strengths, and their weaknesses could be brushed under the rug through the overbearing power of their laners. But they do have their weakness, and much like KT Rolster did, these weaknesses can be exploited by the other teams in the group.

[[{"fid":"23267","view_mode":"centered","fields":{"format":"centered","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":""},"tagName":"IMG","src":"http%3A//admin.prod.lolesports.com/s3/files/styles/centered/public/26927960622_973134bb68_k.jpg%3Fitok%3DMWXydl1j","type":"media","attributes":{"class":"media-element file-centered","height":"660","width":"992"}}]]

How do they make it out of the group?

• Through the aforementioned talent of their lanes. When you look at SKT, you look at a team that should win every lane they play against. Bang and Wolf have been primary carries for SKT all split long. Faker is still arguably the best mid laner in the world despite being exposed against KT Rolster. And Duke, while not quite living up to the initial expectations placed on his shoulders, is still an incredibly dominant top laner. The power in their lanes alone should warrant them making it out of this group.
• Their ability to adapt. SKT has shown an uncanny ability to adapt to the international tournament meta. Their coach, kkOma, does an excellent job of reading the relative strengths and weaknesses of a patch and sets his team up for success. The most recent example of this adaptation was their performance at MSI. After losing four games in a row, they were still able to come back and win the entire tournament. Should they adapt, learn, and grow at the end of each game as they have shown they can do in the past, SKT may not only make it out of groups, but they could also be a scary team for anyone to face in the Quarterfinals and beyond.

How do they go home early?

• Through their jungle. Plain and simple. While SKT’s lanes are incredibly dominant, their jungler, Blank, is propped up by the ability of his teammates. They provide an outrageous amount of space for Blank to operate by pressuring their lanes, but Blank tends to do very little with it. He’s not nearly as proactive as he should be and this can be exploited by teams much like KT Rolster did in their Best of 5 during the Playoffs. If enemy junglers are proactive against SKT and Blank isn’t responsive, SKT will end up giving away advantages for free, and smart teams will use this to take games off the Korean powerhouse.

My prediction: 2nd place

I know this might sound a little crazy, but the weakness in the jungle is something that I would seriously look at as a reason why SKT will finish 2nd in this group. I’ll break down the individual matchups further when we reach Cloud9, but I think during the early stages of the competition, the teams in Group B will give SKT a run for their money if they can properly exploit the weakness in SKT’s jungle.

I’ll also caveat this by saying that while I think that SKT will finish 2nd, I think that it is highly unlikely that they will fail to make it to Quarterfinals. They will adapt through the Group Stage faster and better than the rest of the competition and will come out as the strongest team in Group B, albeit in 2nd place.

I May

[[{"fid":"23268","view_mode":"centered","fields":{"format":"centered","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":""},"tagName":"IMG","src":"http%3A//admin.prod.lolesports.com/s3/files/styles/centered/public/240295.jpg%3Fitok%3Dlks8f2oB","type":"media","attributes":{"class":"media-element file-centered","height":"661","width":"992"}}]]

• Top: AmazingJ
• Jungle: Avoidless
• Mid: Athena
• ADC: Jinjiao
• Support: Road

How did they qualify? Through winning the LPL Regional Qualifier. China’s No. 3 seed.

Honestly, it’s nothing short of incredible that within only three months, a team can qualify through the LSPL (China’s equivalent of Challenger) and make Worlds on the trot. Origen did this last year and they managed to make it all the way to Semifinals.

Will I May be able to replicate this feat? Maybe, if it’s anything like the performances that got them here. Against Team WE in Game 5 of the LPL Regional Qualifier, I May's base was in ruins. They were teetering on the edge of defeat. Then, AmazingJ made a crazy Teleport play. They won a single team fight, pushed one lane from their inhibitor to the enemy Nexus and won. 

I May felt scrappy and unrefined throughout the Summer Split of LPL. Yet, I can’t help but like them after seeing their hearts on the rift. They have an incredible work ethic and practice regimen. During the Summer Split they were not the third best team in China, but they earned their place at Worlds. When they qualified for the LPL Summer Split, AmazingJ, the team’s top laner, announced he would make it to Worlds this year. Even his coaches called him insane back then.

And yet here they are.

[[{"fid":"23269","view_mode":"centered","fields":{"format":"centered","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":""},"tagName":"IMG","src":"http%3A//admin.prod.lolesports.com/s3/files/styles/centered/public/240271.jpg%3Fitok%3DpNfLPn9J","type":"media","attributes":{"class":"media-element file-centered","height":"661","width":"992"}}]]

How do they make it out of the group?

• Through the map pressure of their support. Road is one of the most unique supports at Worlds if not in the world right now. He is never in lane, and it’s best to describe him as a Bard main. He roams all over, and while you might think this would have a negative impact on their ADC Jinjiao, he actually does amazing things with the little amount of attention he receives. That’s because Road draws so much pressure to himself, it forces teams to play reactively to him.
• If I May control the tempo of the games and force teams to react to their aggression, they have a chance of taking games off the best teams in this group. What I mean when I say this is that when I May see the jungler making a play top, they will immediately respond somewhere else on the map. This creates an unpredictable style of play that is unique to the LPL, and other teams may possibly struggle against it.

How do they go home early?

• Through poor communication. Any team that communicates in three different languages is going to have some trouble. They’re jungler Avoidless speaks Cantonese and communicates to the rest of the team through their top laner AmazingJ. I’ve already spoken about how important junglers will be this Worlds and having a jungler who doesn’t speak the same language as three members of your team can lead to some serious communication issues, which we have seen affect I May in the past. 
• If AmazingJ goes rogue. AmazingJ is one of I May’s primary shot callers and traditionally has pulled off some incredible Teleport plays. But one of his shortcomings is that he has a one track mind for winning his lane. If he goes 1-0, he’ll try to make that 2-0, and then 20-0. On more than a number of occasions he has gained an advantage for his team, only then to play too aggressively and have that advantage swing right back round and bite them on the arse. 

My Prediction: 3rd place

I say that I May will finish in 3rd place, but with this group, I really don’t know how much I mean it. There is a very real chance that they could come in and blast everyone away during the first week of the Group Stages. There is also the possibility that they step into the nuance of international competition and fail to win a single game.

So much is up in the air for this group -- but ultimately, for I May, their ability to adapt throughout the weeks of competition is a major unknown. While they may surprise some people during Week 1, I think ultimately an inability to adapt will be their undoing and no amount of heart or practice will be able to gloss over that.

Cloud9

[[{"fid":"23270","view_mode":"centered","fields":{"format":"centered","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":""},"tagName":"IMG","src":"http%3A//admin.prod.lolesports.com/s3/files/styles/centered/public/29065120301_9a2446638a_k.jpg%3Fitok%3D8yTZX8Oe","type":"media","attributes":{"class":"media-element file-centered","height":"675","width":"992"}}]]

• Top: Impact
• Jungle: Meteos
• Mid: Jensen
• ADC: Sneaky
• Support: Smoothie

How did they qualify? Won the NA LCS Regional Qualifier. North America’s No. 3 seed.

Cloud9 is a team that's no stranger to the Worlds stage. In fact, they have represented North America at the World Championship every year since they broke into the NA LCS back in 2013. In 2014 they reached the Quarterfinals as one of the first Western teams to beat a Korean team at Worlds. However, they were also part of the great “0-10” collapse of North America in 2015. This time around it'll be their first time attending Worlds without Hai, yet they have bolstered their ranks with a World Champion in their top laner, Impact.

So where does that leave Cloud9 in 2016 as they take their fourth shot at the Summoner’s Cup?

I feel like Cloud9 are hitting the right stride at the right time. Their victories in the NA Regional Gauntlet have built a lot of momentum for them and given them plenty of onstage experience in the lead up to the biggest tournament of the year. They’re doing well, but it isn’t just about Cloud9 -- it’s about NA as a region. This is the strongest North America has looked in years, and they’ll have everything to prove.

This feels like one of the few times I’ll look at Cloud9 and say that they don’t feel completely outgunned for Worlds. In fact, the gap has closed for a lot of regions regarding strength.

[[{"fid":"23271","view_mode":"centered","fields":{"format":"centered","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":""},"tagName":"IMG","src":"http%3A//admin.prod.lolesports.com/s3/files/styles/centered/public/28261167520_77a7967e40_k_1.jpg%3Fitok%3Dv04fvwE8","type":"media","attributes":{"class":"media-element file-centered","height":"748","width":"992"}}]]

How do they make it out of the group?

• Through the strength of their top lane. If you look at form alone, Impact is arguably the best top laner in the group right now. He had 25 solo kills in the postseason, which is almost double what Duke had all summer. While some of those kills were against Seraph (who is prone to tilt), there were plenty against Huni, who has a proven track record on the international stage. Playing against his former team SKT should be enough to keep his motivation levels high, and if he continues this form into Worlds, it’ll be an incredibly tough matchup for anyone in this group.
• Through the strength of their jungle. Meteos’ KDA is 6.75, which is double Blank's and well above the average at Worlds, which is 5.01. He has a robust champion pool, and will likely draw additional bans from the mid-centric teams like SKT and Flash Wolves, who will look to keep the lane safe from a champion like Zac. While he might not be as good a jungler as Karsa, Meteos has the luxury of strong laners around him. Which brings me to my next point...
• Cloud9 draft incredibly well and should keep early games even. Reapered is a fantastic coach, and in his drafts will usually end up with at least one winning lane and two neutral lanes. If they pick a losing lane, then Meteos will ensure they don’t fall too far behind. Jensen, Sneaky, and Smoothie, while not best in their roles in the group, are also by no means the worst (Jensen had the best CSD@20 in NA). The combination of a good draft, an ability to stay even in lane, should enable Meteos to find advantages that will snowball Cloud9’s lanes ahead.

How do they go home early?

• If they fall behind early. Flash Wolves are great at hitting hard and fast early. I May are incredibly aggressive -- if they see the jungler show they’ll immediately make a play on the other side of the map. SKT rivals the likes of ROX and EDG when it comes to closing out leads. To fall behind in Group B is a dangerous game. If they succumb to SKT’s lanes, I May’s aggression, or Karsa runs rings around Meteos in the jungle, then Cloud9 won’t make it out of groups.
• By losing the mental game. For Meteos and Impact, it will be their first Worlds performance in a long time. For Smoothie, it will be his first Worlds performance ever. International competition is a completely different beast and the ability to bounce back rapidly after a loss is highly underrated. Just ask Sneaky and Jensen, who went 3-0 in Week 1 of Worlds 2015 only to subsequently go 0-4 the week after. All they needed to do was win one game and they would have made the Quarterfinals, but they couldn’t. They will have to maintain their mental fortitude if they want to make Quarterfinals this time around.

My prediction: 1st place

Pretty crazy, I know. I’m sure there is going to be more than a number of you telling me that, but to me this was the most compelling result. Cloud9 have a strong jungler, which SKT do not. They have strong laners, which Flash Wolves do not. And they have effective communication, which I May sometimes lack. Cloud9’s relative strength across the board should be enough to see them finish in 1st place.

How far they take it will depend on how well they adapt to the Worlds meta. In my mind, it’s highly likely that we will see Cloud9 finish above SKT, but SKT go further in the Knockout Stage of the competition. I have faith that Cloud9 will consistently show up early and hold enough wins throughout to clinch 1st in the group, but I believe by the end of group stages, SKT will be the best team in this group, no question.

Group B is a challenge for every team involved. Predictions are hard, Pick'Ems will be ruined, and the possible results in this group are insurmountable. But for me, that is one of the things that makes this group the most compelling here at Worlds. Anything can happen, and that makes it all the more exciting.

This is your last group guide. Now all that’s left to do is sit back, and wait for September 29th when the Group Stage kicks off in San Francisco. See you all there (please don’t bring your pitchforks, or make them inflatable at least! I'm fragile).