10 thoughts going into Quarterfinals
If for some reason you expected my pick’em to do well, then I’d like to thank you for misplacing your trust in my ability to see the future. Suffice to say, I did not do well. But unlike eight teams, 10 thoughts does in fact advance to Guangzhou.
Destined for an All-Korean final? This could be the third time in a row that PraY and GorillA find Faker at the end of their journey. A Korean final is great for purists -- it is, theoretically, a clash between the two best teams at Worlds on paper. It’s an LCK Summer Finals rematch. It has history. It has star power. But for everyone looking for a change of pace? Well, hedge your bets on one of the Chinese teams. Being at home affords them at least the comfort of their culture. It doesn’t take much to swing the mood of a team. And… bah who am I trying to fool. Anything outside of an SKT vs. LZ final will need a major upset. I do think you should take a moment to stew in this rivalry’s greatness, though. And in SKT’s ability to dominate it. If you look at the major sports, more often than not it’s the dynasties that are remembered. As you become increasingly numb to SKT winning, take some time to imagine the magnitude of their eventual fall. It will come. It always does. But revel in what they are now. That said...
Knock, knockWho’s there?
Longzhu knocked out
Longzhu knocked out who?
Everyone.
… That’s a sneak preview of my standup routine post-worlds. Book it now – LZ is going to win Worlds. Lost in the shuffle of the Group Stage drama was their sheer dominance. PraY was, to me, the best performer in Wuhan. All of their players excel in this meta. Pray is a hyper carry ADC, GorillA is a Janna main (among other things), BDD is a roaming mid laner who never dies, and Khan and Cuzz are a top/jungle combo with lethal synergy.
NA’s Weak 2IMT may have choked because they are inexperienced -- a few things swing here or there and they could have advanced. TSM, however, doesn’t have any excuses. The NA LCS’ inability to keep TSM from reaching the NA LCS Finals has, perhaps, dulled their blade. Their strongest showing was in Worlds 2014, which came off the heels of them finally upending a Cloud9 squad which had their number for the better part of a year. A good challenger means you have to innovate. I don’t necessarily want to see TSM fail, but knocking them off their pedestal has been super effective at lighting their fire in the past. TLDR: it’s somehow literally entirely Parth’s or Svenskeren’s or Dyrus’ fault. And Doublelift flashing to turn total wipes into nearly total wipes totally would have fixed all their early game woes. And there’s no way Cody’s flash play was an accident -- he totally meant to sabotage his team!!! *coughsandchokesonsalt
The wild, wild westMisfits and Cloud9 feel like the forgotten middle child to me. They both made Quarterfinals but have been written off for one reason or another. People will say C9 limped in or aren’t as good as EDG or aren’t TSM so who cares. But if you’d told them before Worlds that they’d be matched up against another region’s third seed in the Quarterfinals, and it wasn’t a Korean team, they’d be ecstatic. Misfits, on the other hand, did have a strong showing in group play. Especially in the early game, where SKT has faltered. Does this make them favored or even a good bet to take out SKT? Hell no. But is it enough to sneak them through in your Pick’Em as you perform rituals using miniature rabbit figurines? Hell yeah.
Play-Ins, play onThree of the four play-in teams (RIP Nineteen ‘O Seven Fenerbaçhe) advanced to the Quarterfinals: Cloud9, Fnatic, and Team WE. The meta has evolved even within this patch, so it’s not like these teams revealed too much of their hands by playing early. But when you consider every single #1 seed in the world outside of Longzhu has been eliminated, maybe third (regionally) isn’t so bad after all. Everyone else was playing 3D Chess while these guys played 3rd place chess.
Run, Fnatic, RunFnatic’s 4-0 run to secure a spot in the Quarterfinals is one of my favorite moments in League of Legends history. Their entire Group Stage had everything you want as a fan -- drama, stellar plays, reckless misplays, memes, etc. You name it. And to cap (heh) it off, they won back-to-back tiebreakers. I was as emotionally drained as I’ve ever been while watching that day. But if they get knocked off unceremoniously now, then was it all for naught? Don’t get me wrong -- I love the Group Stage more than anything but the Finals, but the Group Stage only makes for good short stories. By the end of Worlds, there will only be one narrative that matters.
The Boy Who Cried Flash WolvesThe wolves have a big lead, cried the boy. And the fans came running, but the wolves no longer had the lead by the time they arrived. The next game, the same thing happened. And the game after that. Until finally, the boy -- his hands beat red from clapping -- cried, “The wolves have a big lead! They’re really going to win this time!” And the wolves did. They howled and they snapped and they ripped the heart and lungs right out of poor TSM. But nobody came. The fans had all moved on to the Quarterfinals by then.
The best team to not make Quarterfinals was…KT Rolster. Edward Gaming. If not for throwing two major leads against SKT, they’d have advanced as the first seed. In Week 2, they showcased their ability to make proactive plays across the map in the early game, and aggression from Scout and iBoy netted them major gains. That same aggression backfired, though – Scout in particular was feast or famine from one minute to the next. The turning point in the second game against SKT was when he distorted right into the middle of SKT to try to secure the win. It, of course, failed. But it’s hard to not respect a player for trying. If the alternative is the risk-averse play that doomed the Flash Wolves and TSM, for example, then give me Scout every game.
Chinese ADCsAfter relatively disappointing showings in 2015 and 2016, the Chinese teams looked dominant in advancing to the Quarterfinals. Uzi and Mystic played large roles in that, and though EDG lost, iBoy showed flashes of his ridiculous potential in Week 2. We’ve even seen unique picks like Caitlyn and Vayne come out from the Chinese teams – expect them to iterate and build upon those strategies as we progress. These guys have made ADC look as easy your ABCs.
An uplifting song for if your team got knocked out
My main reason for saying SKT is the favorite here has much less to do with how they’ve been playing and more to do with them being a 3-time World Champion. And mind you, them playing “poorly” still netted them a 5-1 record. I want to break this meta down a little bit, though. You can more or less simplify it to “whoever has the better ADC will win.” Which means winning bot lane has frequently been the way to win a game. You can win bot lane by straight up 2v2ing, with pressure, or by countering the pressure. As straight 2v2s are more rare, in order to generate pressure on bot lane, one of your solo lanes needs to be winning – mid will roam bot with the jungler, or the jungler will drop a ward for a teleport (usually from a top laner). It’s rare that a lone jungler ganking has been successful or even attempted. Misfits have been most successful when PowerOfEvil has roamed with Maxlore to help out their bot lane. They move early and they move often. SKT has been much more reactive – they had very little kill pressure pre-15 minutes in the Group Stage. So if Faker can keep PowerOfEvil in the mid lane, then that’ll be SKT’s ticket to a win. If I had to put a number on it, I’d say any games ending before 32-35 minutes favors MSF, and anything over favors SKT. What do you think? Could MSF be a stylistic matchup for SKT? Or will SKT’s early game finally find some life?
Kien Lam is a content producer for Lolesports. You can find more awful great jokes and commentary on his Twitter @meanmisterkien.
