"One Shot" -- Revisit TSM’s narrow win over G2 to understand their MSI run

Riot·5/15/2017, 5:59:50 PM·5 votes·21,445 views

It was one bar of health, but TSM's Nexus still shined. In their first match against Europe's G2, TSM vindicated both their biggest supporters and then their doubters.

Four teams advance to MSI's knockout stage, and TSM finds itself in the spectator seat once again. Their international struggles are well documented — this despite a domestic stranglehold over their NA brethren. Plenty of people in the TSM organization could have done X or Y better, sure, but League of Legends is more about coordinating those Xs and Ys in conjunction. Not in isolation. TSM wasn't vastly overwhelmed in individual talent this tournament, and that, perhaps, is what makes their exit all the more bitter.

I want to look at their thrilling win over G2 on Day 3 to talk about what happened. The game is an instant classic on its own, but it may be swept under the disappointing tide of TSM's elimination from MSI 2017. What's most notably missing from TSM is any sort of swagger. It's a hard thing to qualify, but there's a fine line between playing to win and playing to not lose. TSM is perhaps letting the international pressure affect their mentality too much.

Risk-averse play isn't always the safe play — avoiding a fist fight with a raccoon, for example, isn't the safe play if there's a lion behind you. TSM's hesitation to pull the trigger — be it on a turret siege or on a neutral objective — was their defining fault this tournament. Let's jump into the game.

Champion Select

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These two teams really didn’t want to deal with shields here, as five shielding champs were banned out. Some things to note:

  • Win condition for G2 is to set up flanks so Gragas and Lee can use their displacements to split up the TSM team — ideally a kick or barrel that sends anyone but Elise (who has rappel) into Syndra.
  • Win condition for TSM is to line up a cocoon or arrow with the Rumble ult and Jayce poke. TSM doesn't really want to fight a head on 5 on 5.
  • Tahm Kench can ruin everything — especially for Syndra — by eating one of his allies. Sometimes you really should step into the belly of the beast.
  • The more in vogue shielders may be banned out, but Braum's shield can block out the CC from TSM. G2 is in good shape so long as he keeps his mustache in front of his team.

Game

 
0:30
G2 (blue side) does the classic solo queue level 1 bush stack above their red buff. TSM tryhard 5 point spread. No invade, though.
2:40
Ashe (WildTurtle) Hawk Shot spots Lee Sin (Trick). It's actually a pretty cool strategy to shove in early as Ashe to get a better angle on that ability. Lee Sin is then scouted again at 3:22 thanks to a ward at Krugs. Visibility on the jungler lets you play a lot more aggressively in lane.
5:00
No one has died yet. Neither jungler has invaded. Both fan bases take their first breath of the game.
6:20
Lee Sin takes blasting cone over the wall to gank top, which syncs with Gragas (Expect) dinging level 6. Gragus ult knocks rumble back and Lee lands the Q, but they don't have enough damage and Rumble (Hauntzer) flashes out. Hauntzer reportedly started chanting "MVP" quietly to himself here.
6:30
Meanwhile, Elise (Svenskeren) ganks mid and forces Syndra into the TSM red jungle. Rumble ults her and she is chased down. She probably would have lived if she didn't pause to try and turn some damage with Lee Sin — it was pretty sloppy comms to not call out Rumble still having Equalizer. Also, this was all a product of shoving into Jayce's turret even though her jungler was ganking top — needed to respect the early game Elise gank a lot more.
8:25
Lee Sin gets killed trying to clear a pink ward. Those things are bigger death traps than cannon minions. Can't do it without vision on the other jungler. Blind Monk indeed.
9:55
Lucian (Zven) and Braum (mithy) go hard on Ashe and Tahm Kench (Biofrost), but the catfish just eats Ashe. Maybe they're getting bored at this point since nothing has happened on that side of the map yet. Maybe Ashe is spamming "R — Ready."
12:00
Lee checks a bush with Q at melee range. Kind of confusing that he had the foresight to check it but that he wouldn't do it from further away. Ends up blowing Flash to get away.
12:20
Syndra and Jayce take a big trade. Syndra Ghosts to run — probably expected Tahm and Elise to show up. However, the duo went to secure Earth Drake instead.
13:45
Rumble has a 30+ CS lead even though he had to blow his Flash early. He eventually breaks 200 by 18 minutes. Hauntzer is pretty good at League of Legends.
14:50
Jayce eats another Unleashed Power from Syndra — his 3rd or 4th of the game. I thought you just had to press R to win on Syndra???
15:00
Fight breaks out that eventually sees Lee get blasted over into the blue buff and killed because his W and Flash are down. Really rough game for him early on.
17:00
Still no turrets removed from the map. This is because all of the fighting has revolved around mid lane so far. I'm kind of surprised neither side has tried to make something happen in bot lane.
17:30
Braum caught in the river. This eventually leads to TSM 4-manning bot lane to take that turret. Now the game will open up as this frees Ashe and Braum to roam. This is the proverbial trigger.
18:50
Lee is sneaking the Ocean Drake because of TSM's back. TSM doesn't like that, so a fight breaks out in which G2 focuses down Tahm Kench. Equalizer is unequalizes everything, though, and TSM takes a team fight 4 to 2.
20:55
Gragas steals blue buff. Doesn't spam emote though, so it's not BM enough. G2 should review this missed opportunity.
21:20
TSM tries to make a play on Syndra and successfully get her Ghost, even though the Rumble ult whiffing looks really bad.
22:25
G2's outer mid falls. This is probably the most important turret of the outer six. It opens up so many different pathways for TSM. Losing this without an adequate trade elsewhere generally means you're in a really bad situation.
24:35
Posturing around Baron starts to really take shape. Lane phase is effectively over. This mid-game jockeying for positioning is make or break for most teams. G2 wants Baron alive because they can't really take it, and TSM wants it dead. For G2, this is League's version of an escort quest. Infernal Drake is spawning soon, too, and that one usually makes people do some really dumb things.
25:10
Braum dies trying to hold off TSM. He's just extended too far for this point in the game, so TSM takes the Drake. Then they take G2's lunch money. Then they take my lunch money. Really just bullying everything at this point.
25:50
Tahm and Jayce roam top to kill Syndra, who is overextended. She blows everything but still dies. This is one of those deaths where you just type "Tahm no SS" and then tab out to check Twitter or something.
26:40
Lee trades his life for Ashe. Not really worth, but also definitely worth — as is the Lee Sin way. Outer top falls, but it was a goner anyway. Nice to try and make a play when you're behind, but TSM just collapsed faster.
28:20
Baron posturing is too important, and TSM catches G2 out of position and takes inner mid. It's not a super important turret, though — it doesn't really open any important pathways for TSM at this point in the game.
29:00
Casters are talking about whether Svenskeren is having a good game or if Trick is having a bad game. I think, certainly, that Trick is having a bad game. But some of that seems to just be miscommunication from his team. And Sven's been getting some flack in this tournament, but I wonder how much of that is just him not properly accounting for the shift to international play. His solo laners won lane frequently in the NA LCS, and not doing so now (competition is much tougher) limits his ability to invade. But that's the style he was accustomed to, so when he invades still, they aren't there to back him up like normal. It's either that or the Reddit peanut gallery is right and it's all his fault and he's just a boosted animal.
31:00
TSM rotates to top inner. This is a really good place to situate yourself when you have the lead because it lets you easily rotate towards Baron if something goes well. Fight breaks out — Jayce is kicked in, but manages to Flash out. Syndra probably could have Flash ulted him for the kill here. But she doesn't, so Lee dies for nothing. Again, poor comms — one foot on the gas and one foot in the grave.
31:30
G2 pursues anyway and ends up losing everyone but Syndra. It's a pretty desperate fight (that they actually play mostly well). But in the aftermath, TSM is up 8k gold. You'd expect them to close out cleanly from here. But I wouldn't be writing this if they did that. TSM follows it up with another Infernal Drake.
33:50
TSM returns to top and kill Braum under his turret. It's hard for TSM to continue pressing without the Ashe arrow, though. They don't really have any other way of initiating from a distance, so they posture around Baron and kill it. Lucian counters with mid outer, and the gold difference is 9k. This should have been the death push, but we'll see quickly why tanks are important.
35:10
G2 hides in TSM's blue jungle and surprises Rumble. It's a really smart strategy — it cuts off one of TSM's members to help stall out Baron, and it also wastes the Ashe arrow. TSM can't siege without it because they don't have anyone who can sufficiently tank an inhibitor turret dive. They need a pick.
36:40
TSM finally groups to use their Baron buff. They need an Arrow and Cocoon to land on someone important, or they need to be able to disengage as Jayce takes a turret elsewhere — that's too dangerous, though, so they stay grouped. TSM can't deal with the wave clear, though, and then lose the Baron buff, so they leave.
38:50
TSM secures Elder Drake atop three drakes. Now they can dive.
39:55
Or not — Elise takes way too much damage, so TSM backs off. Both mid inhib turret and bot inhib turret are super low. Baron spawns in a minute. I think they could have pressed hard if they used Rumble ult to zone, though. They're a little too passive.
41:30
TSM starts Baron. They end up tanking it for some 40-50 seconds. Again, they don't have a tank, so they can't really do this. All they had to do was peel off and go siege top — they had the angle. Instead, a really strange fight breaks out where nobody dies — Gragas barrels into them. Probably because he wants TSM to stop hurting themselves like that. The two parties split off and never text each other again. Very awkward. Lucian manages to take TSM's mid inner out of it.
43:00
G2 forces a 50/50 Baron — which they should because they're behind — and get it. They follow it with an Insec kick onto Ashe. Tahm can't save her because he eats Elise — who flashed in to try for a steal — instead. Huge risk from G2, but a necessary one, and it pays off. Honestly, TSM could have forced this before and probably still won the fight — when you're that far ahead, you just want to bait the other team into fighting you. Indecision cost them dearly.
46:00
At this point, the game is basically one team fight away from ending. And like I said earlier, TSM wants to avoid the head on 5v5, so it's a pretty scary place for them to be in. TSM's gold advantage doesn't matter as much at this point, but they're still up. They're playing super scared though.
47:00
G2 pushes and secures two turrets bot lane and the inhibitor. And a huge wave crashes into top for TSM. Not looking good for NA faithful. G2 comeback mechanics in full display.
48:40
The star of the match, the Elder Dragon, is 10 seconds away from spawning. Lucian and Syndra and shoving mid lane for G2. They don't need the Elder, they just need to prevent TSM from taking it.
48:50
G2 commits Lucian and Syndra to shoving mid. All five TSM members are in the river.
49:00
TSM forces Elder Dragon. Braum is in the middle of the two parties and retreats to help Gragas and Lee. TSM secures Elder, but Lucian and Syndra are on the Nexus turrets. G2 NEEDS to find Rumble and prevent his TP. But they don't.
49:15
Rumble completes his ultimate channel. Lucian and Syndra are split in the base, so he can only focus one — it has to be Lucian, who does more damage to the Nexus. Lucian shoots Rumble a couple times more than necessary, though.
49:20
Jayce enters the base and must take out Syndra. He has one shot. He nails it. Both of them fall, and TSM Collapses on Gragas, who's basically army crawling to the Nexus. But he falls short like Kevin Dyson in Super Bowl XXXIV.
49:40
Camera's on Lee Sin, who's waiting in the TSM red jungle for a chance to backdoor the Nexus. He has GA, Flash, and his kick up.
49:55
Lee flashes the wall and goes for it. It takes two seconds for Tahm Kench to respond and back to help.
50:00
Lee kicks Rumble away. He has no wards, though, so now it's a game of tag. He gets six autoattacks onto the turret before proccing GA. Double redemption cancels each other out from the supports on the respawn.
50:10
Lee gets two more autos off before dying. He's literally one hit away from winning the game for G2. Former FNC jungler Cyanide tweets about PTSD. Europe's heart sinks. The Brazilian crowd sounds like a stampede, and G2 can only pray the noise somehow topples the Nexus. Can only pray. But it's not answered. TSM takes the game and extends G2's struggles against NA teams. But G2's problems — early game miscues — are much easier to mend than TSM's.

The Takeaway

A very similar game unfolds when TSM faces G2 again on Day 5 of the MSI Group Stage. TSM picks a composition with a nearly identical style and then jumps out to a similar lead. The biggest problem is TSM's unwillingness to make an aggressive play with their leads. There's no excuse for how little they managed to achieve with Baron and Elder buffs this tournament.

In this game, and in their rematch with G2, they needed to sync a Rumble Equalizer with a CC ultimate from the ADC (Ashe in this case and Varus later) — not necessarily to kill someone, but to zone them from the turret. That timing pretty much never happened in crucial sieges. Hauntzer and WildTurtle just never seemed to be on the same page. TSM was just waiting for their opponent to trip into their arms.

It's a little infuriating to watch — the lack of initiative and the lack of coordination. Hell, they may only be at MSI because of the infamous "Jensen'd" play that was more a mistake from C9 than a proactive move on TSM's part. That's what made a team like GAM so exciting to watch — they went out on their own terms. They tried to make plays. They got knocked on their asses and got right back up again.

But a game like this shows TSM does have it in them to play well at international tournaments. They have the parts to compete — especially with Doublelift returning to the roster rotation come summer. And Doublelift has swagger if nothing else. That little step. That decisiveness — this is the thing that will elevate TSM to the next level. They are giving their opponents too much respect. TSM will likely have another successful split in the NA LCS, but they should look not just to win, but to dominate if they want to redeem themselves at Worlds.

MSI resumes as SK Telecom T1 takes on the Flash Wolves on Friday, May 19 at 11 pm PT.

Kien Lam is a writer for LoLesports. You can find really awful great jokes on his Twitter @meanmisterkien.

94 Comments

Dukues5/15/2017, 9:12:02 PM8 votes

This is really well written. Pretty much sums up their tournament. They played so scared and passive with leads. Something I didn't think TSM would do. But they did and it cost them enough games to move on. Hopefully they learn from this experience and can grow as a team. I would by lying if I said I wasn't worried though. Just seems like this same story has been told before, and they have yet to learn.

SciFi Scrivener5/15/2017, 6:35:57 PM7 votes

Just saying, take out SKT and GAM, and the four remaining teams would make a great knock out round. As it stands, there is little suspense before SKT gets crowned the winners. Personally I'm looking forward to summer split to see if FLY and P1 can continue to play against the more established teams, and if Dardouch makes a difference for CLG. Very little interest in watching the knock out stage this weekend.

Some will call me an NA homer, but the truth is the SKT domination takes away from the excitement. G2, WE, FW, TSM all have a chance of winning against each other, there would be no favorite to win it all. With SKT in the tourny there is very little doubt who will win.

Kairu7775/15/2017, 6:11:42 PM4 votes

Was a sad thing to see TSM eliminated, but wasn't near as disappointing as I would have thought because really it seemed like anything could happen with those bottom 4 teams. Was a thrill to watch until the end. My question though is how did G2 solidify themselves as the 3rd semi-finalist once FW beat GAM? I missed the analysis portions around that part.

Eleshakai5/15/2017, 6:47:59 PM4 votes

I've said this elsewhere... but TSM seems to have two big problems:

  1. Their preparation is missing SOMETHING. Not sure what exactly... but whatever it is, it's big. And it's costing them a lot of game 1s... which in group stage is just a 'lot of games'.

  2. They fail to understand the importance of maintaining map presence. They've had way too many 'lets all recall' moments that have led to enemy teams getting uncontestable objectives. Two barons in this event alone.