Fantasy LCS 2016 Spring Split draft guide

Only 10 more days until the LCS starts up again and we can fight for bragging rights in our Fantasy LCS leagues. You can start forming Fantasy LCS leagues on Thursday, January 7, and you'll want to draft your teams before the LCS matches start on January 14-15 (EU) and 16-17 (NA).

The offseason has been crazy, with almost every LCS team undergoing major changes. Let's walk through some of the big things you need to know before drafting, and some of our favorite players to draft (and avoid) this Split.

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What Happened in the Offseason?

Totally New Teams

It's risky to draft players on totally new teams, but you can often mitigate that by targeting teams that have some veteran players on the roster (like Origen last Split). New LCS teams G2 Esports, Renegades, and NRG Esports each have a couple old-timers to help guide the newbies, while Splyce and Echo Fox only have one vet each. The safest picks of the bunch are probably on Immortals and Team Vitality, since they're completely stuffed with active LCS players shuffled from other teams. But only Renegades and Splyce have rosters that have played together extensively, which could give them a stronger start.

Almost-New Teams

A lot of returning LCS teams cleaned house during the off-season, dropping all but a few key players. Teams like TSM, Fnatic, and H2K tried to build super-teams around their strongest players and have a lot of hype going into the new Split. That means you'll have to buy early if you want to draft any of their players. Teams like Team Dignitas, Team Impulse, Elements, and Unicorns of Love rebuilt instead out of necessity and will carry a lot more risk, but should have some late sleeper candidates. Likewise, Team ROCCAT carried nothing over into 2016 but its name, sporting an entirely new roster of mostly current LCS players.

Almost-the-Same Teams

This is where you'll find your safer draft picks. Origen only changed one player (PowerofEvil for xPeke), and look poised to dominate Europe. Expect them to be drafted early! Cloud9 brought in Rush, leading them to favor a more aggressive playstyle (good for fantasy owners!). CLG, Giants Gaming, and Team Liquid are a little less familiar, with two new players each, but have the same core at their foundation that should mean we know, roughly, what to expect from them.

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Who Should I Draft First?

People are already calling this the year of the ADC, thanks to the new meta fueled by their shiny new items, and all of the top fantasy spots last Split were already ADCs! Grabbing a top-tier ADC should be your first priority in the draft.

Niels: Niels showed his amazing potential in the second half of last year. He's exceptionally talented and surrounded by other top talent. Origen is the only EU superpower that maintained a stable roster during the off-season, which should let them come out of the gates strong and assert dominance early. POE's proactive style should help boost all of Origen's fantasy stats this Split.

Rush: This is the only non-ADC you should consider taking as the first pick of the draft. He was #5 overall in the Summer Split -- putting him ahead of all non-ADCs -- and the next jungler on the list was #17! More importantly, Cloud9 looked surprisingly aggressive at IEM Cologne. In the past, I've avoided C9 players in fantasy due to their slow, controlled playstyle. But C9 even outscored their opponents when they lost to them at IEM (which is very rare). Color me intrigued.

WildTurtle: Hear me out. The top 5 fantasy players last year were all ADCs on teams that either won a lot (Fnatic) or fought a lot (Team Impulse). No roster looks more eager to brawl in 2016 than Immortals. Huni and WildTurtle play aggressively and they've got strong backup that's used to chasing bloodthirsty buddies into battle. They seem to be the closest in team style to TIP last season, who produced 5 of the top 14 fantasy scorers last Split, despite losing plenty of games.

Doublelift: You always have to pay attention to the #1 fantasy player of last Split. TSM is making moves to ensure that Doublelift will succeed alongside Bjergsen, and it showed in their off-season tournament matches. I like TSM's new roster a lot, and Doublelift and Yellowstar should fair well against the other lanes in the region.

Forg1ven: Are you a true believer? It's going to take confidence to spend the draft's first pick on Forg1ven, considering the other, more stable options. But H2K looked strong at IEM Cologne and (more importantly) adapted quickly to adversity in their series. There may be some ramp up time early in the season as the team learns to play together, but by February, Forg1ven should be well on his way to the top of the fantasy charts.

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Who Should I Avoid Early?

A lot of people let personal allegiances influence their draft picks (TSM TSM TSM!), but if you're aiming for first place this Split, you need to stay calm and look at the numbers. Here are a few players likely to be drafted ahead of their actual value, due to their popularity. Unless these drop to late rounds, you'll likely want to avoid them, so you aren't paying the "popular player premium."

Febiven: Don't get me wrong. Febiven is one of the best mid laners in the LCS. The problem is that mid laners have the smallest point gap of any position right now -- so they're the least important position to draft early. The #16 mid laner last Split (Shiphtur) only scored 5.5 points less per game than the #1 mid laner (Febiven).

By comparison, every other position has a 10-point difference in that same standings gap -- almost twice as much! So, if you want to get the most bang for your buck in the first draft rounds, avoid mid lane. It's more important to grab top-tier studs in the other positions.

Alex Ich: It's hard to say exactly how high you'll have to reach for Alex Ich in your draft, but his name recognition alone will likely require you to overpay if you want him. Renegades did well in the Challenger scene, finishing 2nd. But even against Challenger-tier mid laners, Alex's stats weren't awesome. He averaged 20.7 points per game in their wins and only 8.5 in their losses. His overall average points (17.3) would've put him as the #17 mid laner in the LCS last Split, just below Shiphtur. He should have an even tougher time against NA LCS-quality mids.

Kobbe: ADC is such an important position that you need to be picky. We recommended drafting the rookie ADC Niels last Split because of his outstanding performance in Challenger and his teammates' experience. While Kobbe looked decent in Challenger, his team's lack of experience makes him too risky for my taste. There are many other, more reliable, options for you to target.

Kiwikid: Sorry, dude. Even when Dignitas was winning last Split, Kiwikid had trouble turning in hype-worthy fantasy points. NA imported a lot of new talent during the off-season and Dignitas' recent performance at IEM Cologne didn't inspire confidence. To be fair, Kiwikid missed that tournament due to a scheduling conflict, but I need to see some improvement in-game before I buy-in here.

Aphromoo: Aphromoo was a Fantasy LCS support stud last year, but the roster changes have hit CLG hard and his longtime partner in the bot lane is gone. Aphro's strong enough individually to demand some fantasy attention, but his popular reputation means that you'll need to draft him too early. Treat him as a sleeper speculation pick this Split.

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What Value Picks Should I Look For?

Late into the draft, you want to look for players with upside--which means that they're expected to be average, but have the potential to outperform expectations and become absolute studs. Don't expect all of your sleeper picks to work out. You're playing the odds here and hoping that one or two take off. The failed guesses are fodder for the waiver wire when you need to pick up someone new.

Hjarnan: Hjarnan was the #6 ADC last Split, but should drop out of the spotlight (and down to lower draft rounds) this year because people are so hyped on the other super-teams. Team Vitality is a new team made of experienced players, and I think they'll hold their own in the region. More than anything else, though, I like Hjarnan because he's back with his bot-lane BFF kaSing, who was key to his success last Split.

Impact: Impact was the stable backbone of Team Impulse -- the fight-happy fantasy gravy train of last Split. He's on a new team this year, but NRG has solid talent on their roster and shouldn't be as hindered by language issues as TIP was. Like Hjarnan, Impact's team isn't as hyped as others, so I expect him to drop to later rounds. Don't sleep on him too long: he was the #1 top laner and #8 overall fantasy player last Split, averaging 23.3 points per game!

PowerofEvil: POE was only the #38 fantasy player last Split, and people will be worried about him splitting time with xPeke in the Spring Split. Heck, some may not even realize that he's moved to Origen. You should be able to sleep on POE later than expected, but draft him with confidence. Niels said in a recent interview that he expects POE to be the main starter, and I think he'll do well enough that xPeke won't interfere.

Adrian: Team Impulse's medic was a fantasy owner's dream in the Summer Split, topping the support position charts with almost 23 points per game while chasing his teammates into battle. I think he'll be serving a similar role on Immortals this Split, and should have plenty of opportunities to soak up assists in the constant team fights.

Diamondprox: Diamond lost a lot of fantasy rep last Split, as Gambit struggled, leaving him at the #91 overall fantasy position. But this is a new team, in a new meta that has compelling playmaker potential in the jungle. Diamond's greatest moments have been at the front of new metas, where he has a knack for finding new champions and builds that let him succeed. UOL's roster looks decent on paper, but they're still an underdog in the region, so you should have no problem grabbing Diamond late.

Balls: That gut reaction you're feeling right now towards this pick is exactly why I like drafting Balls this Split--you can get him dirt cheap. This poor guy got dragged through the mud before Worlds, and many people will avoid drafting him just because of that. But don't be fooled--Balls would've scored great fantasy points with his stats at IEM Cologne, even when C9 was losing! The organization has shown they will support him, and Balls is more motivated than ever to improve. If C9 succeeds, Balls will too. And, for the first time ever, C9's playstyle will let them rack up fantasy points as they win.

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Good Luck!

I hope this guide helps you feel a little more confident as you step into your fantasy drafts this week! Be sure to play Fantasy LCS when it returns on Thursday, January 7. You'll have one week to join a league and do your draft before the LCS matches start on January 14-15 (EU) and 16-17 (NA).

Josh Augustine's favorite champion is Miss Fortune, he's never enjoyed a Darius, and he will always go for the kill, even when he knows he shouldn't. He currently works as a game designer at Daybreak Games. He’d love to talk with you on Twitter.