Fantasy Love/Hate: Week 4
It's time to put some lengthy thought into those struggling draft picks that have been clogging up your bench. We're living in a world where Team Dignitas is tied with Team SoloMid for second place, and SK Gaming has yet to win a game.
If you want to win Fantasy LCS, you have to set sentimentality and fanboy feelings aside and trust the stats. Here's some new data to consider this week.
For Fantasy Week 4, We Love...
Jankos (vs. Elements, SK Gaming)
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Do you remember how the Copenhagen Wolves were a surprise fantasy gold mine last Split? They didn't win many games, but they always managed to draw matches out and spill plenty of blood, even against the best teams in the league.
Well, four weeks in, I'm ready to officially declare that ROCCAT is the Copenhagen Wolves of the Summer Split. They're still 2-4 in the standings, but they play long games and force their enemies to fight them -- the two most sacred attributes we're looking for in our fantasy picks.
That point-tastic playstyle let ROCCAT's jungler, Marcin "Jankos" Jankowski, stash the second-highest points for junglers in Week 2. He even managed to still score 27 points against a very tough schedule last week.
Fate is back in their favor this week, giving ROCCAT the lightest possible schedule in the EU LCS, according to standings. And I don't think they'll waste it.
Quas (vs. TSM, Team Dignitas)
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Fair warning, you'll have to pay a premium to pick up Diego "Quas" Ruiz this far into the Split. But it's still probably worth it.
Quas has scored as many points as his team's AD carry, Chae "Piglet" Gwang-jin (146 total points). He's the only top laner in Fantasy LCS that's even tied for the #1 spot on his team. Most top laners are #2 or #3 on their teams, and some even drop down to #4.
Team Liquid will have to once again prove themselves against two 2nd Place teams and defend their 1st Place position this week. Those should be epic games with plenty of opportunities for TL's top playmaker to pick up big fantasy points for you.
Good news: TSM allowed opposing top laners 16 points, on average, last week, and Team Dignitas gave up 19 points to the same! Quas has historically outscored all of those top laners, so there's no reason to believe this week couldn't be even bigger.
If you like to live dangerously, you could wait a week and try to buy Quas cheap if TL loses this week. But, personally, I'd rather grab him now and take advantage of this week's points too.
Vardags (vs. SK Gaming, Gambit Gaming)
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If you're looking to buy cheap, you won't find a better bargain than the ADC for Unicorns of Love, Pontus "Vardags" Dahlblom. There are only 5 ADCs who have scored less points than this pink stallion, and his owner (if he's even owned in your league) is likely to be fed up with his inconsistency.
Take advantage of that and trade for him now! SK Gaming didn't kill opposing ADCs at all last week. Instead, they let H2K's ADC, Petter "Hjärnan" Freyschuss, score 48 points against them!
Gambit Gaming turned up strong against Copenhagen Wolves and SK Gaming last week, limiting opposing ADCs to an average 5.8 points in their two wins. But in their losses, Gambit typically gives up 26.5 points to enemy ADCs.
Yes, Vardags is inconsistent. His points in the first three weeks were 21, 57, and 8. But his big weeks are big, and this looks like a reliable lineup. He scored 57 points in Week 2 against ROCCAT and Copenhagen Wolves, who have the same record as Gambit (2-4), and a better record than SK (0-6).
But We Hate...
YoungBuck (vs. H2K, Fnatic)
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Like Vardags, Copenhagen Wolves' top laner, Joey "YoungBuck" Steltenpool, has been very inconsistent. He went from being in the #3 spot in Week 1 to the last place spot in Week 2, and barely crawled up the ranks last week.
Like most fantasy players on mid-tier teams, the fluctuation in YoungBuck's points has coincided pretty exactly with the difficulty of his team's schedule. That's bad news for this week's potential: the closest comparison to H2K and Fnatic was their Week 2 lineup (Origen and Unicorns of Love), when YoungBuck owners got just three points out of him.
Do whatever's needed to secure a substitute top laner this week.
Team Dignitas (vs. Team Impulse, Team Liquid)
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Team Dignitas is officially on a roll after dethroning a sloppy TSM last week. Their spot on this week's hate list is not because of their recent play (which has been solid). Team Dignitas is the #7 fantasy team right now, which should make them a starter in most leagues.
Team Dignitas is on this list because we have an unusual amount of sub options with less risk this week. Team Impulse, Counter Logic Gaming, ROCCAT, Unicorns of Love, and maybe even Cloud9 (if you're a believer) all have theoretically easier schedules -- and most should be available for pick up right now.
Remember, tough schedules don't help team points in the same way that they help player points. For our team slot, we want 100% win assurance with complete dominance of all objectives -- not bloody fights and frequent altercations.
There's no reason to take the risk this week. Take advantage of the plethora of reliable one-week subs the schedule gods have graced us with in Week 4.
Josh Augustine's favorite champion is Azir, he's never enjoyed a Darius, and he will always go for the kill, even when he knows he shouldn't. He currently works as a game designer on EverQuest Next at Daybreak Games. He’d love to talk with you on Twitter.
