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I just don't get the thought process

ValyrianBlade·10/22/2017, 2:15:07 PM·1 votes·795 views

WE first picks Janna.

C9 picks Caitlyn, Sejuani.

WE gets Galio, Kog'maw.

I just don't understand. Okay, I'm willing to believe that giving up Janna-Caitlyn is unacceptable even if I don't agree with it. I mean, WE gave up Galio in order to avoid that combo so it's not like C9's making a bigger mistake by refusing to give up the same combo.

But why Sejuani???????? The 46% win rate throughout worlds Sejuani??? Literally see no reason why Sejuani was favored over Galio in the pick order by C9. Galio has been the most busted champion at worlds (after possibly only Kalista, who's been 100% banned).

I also don't understand the Xayah ban AT ALL. Like if you're not going to prioritize Galio, ban him. The only thing I can figure there, is that C9 was hoping to entice WE to first pick Galio so they could get Caitlyn-Janna for themselves. So fine, let's call that a strategy that WE outmaneuvered them on. Once WE first picks Janna though, you need to change things up and pick accordingly. Caitlyn-Galio. How is that not obvious?

Like, let's go through everything here:

  • Galio pick takes it away from WE
  • Galio pick could give your team a tank mid, which means your jungler or top does not need to be a tank. So Sejuani loses all priority as they could put their jungler on literally anything else (other than the banned Ezreal and J4). Surely Contractz can play something other than Ezreal and J4? He's played Graves, Gragas, and Rek'sai in this tournament alone. He's won on both Gragas and Graves. Graves is much more viable with a Galio mid since you're not giving up a jungle tank. Gragas obviously can work with Galio as we just saw from WE. Then there's the chance that WE doesn't even take Sejuani!
  • Galio could be flexed in to top lane. He's a tank, so you're not giving up a tank there. He's got good waveclear and can farm from range, which makes him a lot better than most top lane champions if his team is behind.

Now, let's suppose C9 had actually picked Caitlyn-Galio. What's the worst case scenario in the picks for them? I would imagine they think it's WE going Kog'maw and Sejuani.

  • If WE doesn't pick kog'maw, C9 bans it in the next ban phase.
  • If WE doesn't pick Sejuani, C9 picks it as their last pick before the next ban phase.
  • This does however leave WE without a mid lane pick while C9 has one already. So C9 will spend their next 2 bans on mid laners while WE bans either Supports or Junglers depending on what C9's third pick is.

So WE picks Kog + Sej. Where does that leave C9?

  • World's popular/power picks left open: Cho'gath, Shen, Gnar, Lulu, Gragas, Syndra, Rakan, Ryze, Jayce, Taliyah, Maokai, Orianna, Taric, Rek'sai
  • If C9 picks a jungler (probably Gragas, but maybe Rek'sai or Graves) they risk getting supports banned. However Lulu, Rakan, and Taric are all up, so one of the three will still be available. C9 would target mid lane bans.
  • If C9 picks a support (let's assume Lulu, since it's who they actually picked) they risk getting junglers banned. Gragas is definitely gone there, and probably Rek'sai, which forces them on to Graves or a new pick. C9 would target mid lane bans.
  • If C9 picks anything else in the above (a top laner of Cho/Shen/Gnar/Jayce/Maokai, or a mid laner of Syndra, Ryze, Jayce, Taliyah, Orianna [while flexing Galio top]) they leave either jungle or support to getting banned (but not both) and can also target ban out top lane picks against WE.

The best pick here really depends on Smoothie and Contractz. Smoothie has already shown he can play Taric. Letting Contractz get on Gragas, Smoothie risks getting both Lulu and Taric banned. So if he can play Rakan, or is willing to bring out any other support to play alongside Caitlyn (which should be a fine laning phase no matter who he picks because it's Caitlyn ADC against a Kog'maw - I think Rakan, Thresh, Bard, and even Blitzcrank would all have been viable picks). So unless Smoothie's champion pool was actually just Janna/Lulu/Taric, C9 should have been fine securing Gragas. Otherwise, Smoothie can lock in Lulu. Contracts will get Gragas banned out (and then likely Rek'sai but who knows really). In this case we still have Galio mid so Contractz can play a non-tank jungler. He showed in NA that he can play both Elise and Kha'zix - both of which would have applied great early pressure to help Caitlyn get ahead.

I honestly think the best call here is to lock Lulu. WE bans Gragas and Rek'sai. Now, most people here would say C9 bans two mid laners. However Xiye has played a lot of mids in this tournament (Syndra, Corki, Jayce, LeBlanc, Lucian, and Taliyah all still up). So they can ban the ones they're scared of (e.g. Jayce and Corki - given they have a Galio so Syndra/Taliyah/LeBlanc probably aren't huge threats). This is what I've alluded to all post long. HOWEVER, C9 also gets the first pick after the banning phase. They could still target ban TOP laners. WE takes the first ban at a jungler (Gragas), but how do they respond to a Gnar-Cho'gath ban? Rumble has already been banned from 957. The only other champions 957 has played are Maokai (who C9 beat him on already) and Shen (who he lost on to TSM). Ban Gnar-Cho'gath, pick Maokai or Shen and force 957 on to the other one? If 957 sees the Gnar/Cho-gath ban and uses their second ban on a top laner as well (instead of another jungler) it leaves Rek'sai open for C9 and they're really banning themselves off of Maokai or Shen and forcing C9 on to the other one. I'm not sure what would happen here, but let's assume WE just bans Rek'sai.

C9 picks Shen. WE picks Maokai and a mid laner - probably Taliyah. C9 picks Kha'zix or Elise.

Team comps: C9: Shen / Kha'zix or Elise / Galio / Caitlyn / Lulu WE: Maokai / Sejuani / Taliyah / Kog'maw / Janna

To me, that draft is much preferable for C9 over what actually happened. The alternative if C9 really didn't want to play against Taliyah...

C9 bans Taliyah and... Jayce? or Cho'gath still. Or Corki. C9 picks Shen (or picks Cho'gath themselves). WE picks Gnar or Cho'gath, and a mid laner (let's assume Syndra). C9 picks Kha'zix or Elise.

C9: Shen or Cho'gath / Kha'zix or Elise / Galio / Caitlyn / Lulu WE: Cho'gath or Gnar / Sejuani / Syndra / Kog'maw / Janna

Yet again, I like the look of this for C9 a lot better than what actually happened.

Finally, let's say C9 locks in Gragas instead of Lulu. WE bans Lulu and Taric. C9 bans Taliyah and Corki. C9 picks Shen or Cho'gath. OR they flex Galio to top and pick a mid laner (say Syndra). WE picks Syndra and Cho'gath or Gnar. C9 picks their support. Based on Smoothie's S7, probably Rakan, however Thresh and Karma and Blitzcrank and Bard and Tahm Kench are all good picks for him too. He's played them all and has solid win rates on all of them, and they've all done okay to well at worlds.

So C9: Shen or Cho / Gragas / Galio / Caitlyn / Rakan WE: Cho or Gnar / Sej / Syndra / Kog'maw / Janna

or

C9: Galio / Gragas / Syndra / Caitlyn / Rakan WE: Cho or Gnar / Sejuani / Jayce or Ryze / Kog'maw / Janna

The top scenario above may even favor C9, although their only real damage source is Caitlyn. The second scenario may also even favor C9 assuming they can play Galio top. It puts WE in to a rough spot mid lane, as Galio, Taliyah, and Corki are all unavailable (the popular picks against Syndra). WE could pick Jayce, but then they're all AD - huge edge to C9 (although Kog'maw will help WE a lot in that scenario). Ryze is popular against Syndra at this worlds, but I think Syndra was the counter to Ryze and not the other way around.

So really, if C9 picks Gragas I think they can win the draft still, whether they want to flex Galio top or not.

Of course, we could just have avoided the whole mess if C9 didn't risk it all in game 5 by leaving up Galio and Caitlyn-Janna after the first round of bans. Such is life though. They took a risk and got outpicked with WE's first pick Janna in that scenario so obviously WE is going to end up with a preferred comp. I think the two scenarios I presented above end up with C9 having only a marginal comp disadvantage though, instead of the gigantic comp disadvantage they ended up with.

So I ask... what were they thinking, giving up both Janna and then Galio. Was it like "okay you didn't get suckered in to taking Galio to give us Janna-Caitlyn, so we'll let you win for free"? Just don't get the priority on Sejuani. She's been impactful, but she still has a sub-50 win rate. Meanwhile Galio has an 80% win rate mid and 50% top. His top losses have been to Cho'gath and J4 (J4 already banned, and C9 could ban cho'gath in the second phase). He's strong mid in any matchup. C9 gets a huge edge if they just take Galio for themselves then. So they pick Sejuani and give up both Janna and Galio just to get Caitlyn. Why?

6 Comments

Sagan Forever10/22/2017, 3:09:46 PM1 votes

SSG 3-0 LZ using Sej, so it is a pick that if played properly works well. Also this is game 5 and throughout the series they decided to get Sej first. Maybe they though Galio would not be picked that early, or maybe they simply forgot the pick. In SKT vs ROX the team simply forgot Ashe (prays best champion at the time), and like all other teams C9 could have simply made a mistake in a high pressure game 5.

Mazariamonti10/22/2017, 3:12:09 PM1 votes

I know it fucking blew my mind to, i didn't think I would see a worse fuckup in the draft after the second EDG - C9 game but they proved me wrong. I love C9, but fuck me if that isnt one of the most anger inducing two games I've ever seen. IT WASNT THE CAITLYN, IT WAS NEVER THE CAITLYN. what is the point of picking the Caitlyn if you can never push the tower out of fear of a Gallio ult? No point, that's right.

And Under no circumstances should Gallio be allowed to be picked right now, ever.

xJLx MCHammer10/22/2017, 3:37:18 PM1 votes

Galio should be perma banned or picked.

C9 letting it though just meant the KoG is even more unlikely to get killed.

The LPL teams favor ADC meta. This meta just means it favors them. Look at their games throughout the split. It’s all about the 4-5 man bot late dives. They have gotten good at it this year and the meta by the end favored it even more.

C9 played great in a meta that favors bot lane. This team is a mid lane focused team. They adapted well. If they keep improving and playing like this, they may win LCS

Late For Tea10/22/2017, 4:00:06 PM1 votes

I think C9 banked too hard on early game, and tunnel visioned on it that they ended up with a weird P&B phase. WE had mostly been winning through the late game, and C9s strength is in the early game.

Rumble is one of the strongest early game top-laners, and 957 has a 100% win record on it this worlds (over 4 games). To my understanding Xayah is a pretty good laning adc (although my knowledge of adcs is pretty limited as I don't play the role myself), ranking 3rd on op.gg after non-meta picks Draven and MF. The Jayce ban further emphasises that C9 wanted to remove any early-game champions from WE. That WE would pick Gnar was honestly unexpected, because 957 has only played a single game of Gnar in pro-play all of 2017, which was a loss. C9 really couldn't have anticipated this.

C9 looked at a strong pushing botlane with Caitlyn & Lulu, backed up by early game jungle support in Sejuani. Shen would provide additional support for botlane. The draft was very similar to what they did in Game 1, during which they got a big early game gold lead. They wouldn't have a problem with Mystic getting his Kog'maw, as he wouldn't have enough time to scale due to C9's early aggression on bot side.

We also shouldn't forget that FNC beat RNG's Galio yesterday, so it is possible C9 felt like they could do the same, and that Galio isn't as big a threat as it is. This is likely overconfidence on C9's side though, as the win from FNC was by no means easy. I think the P&B phase for game 5 could have been better for C9, but I don't think it is nearly as bad as people make it out to be (e.g. C9 losing on purpose).

These are just my thoughts on the draft, and a possibility of what C9 was aiming at. Of course we don't know what their thought process was, so we can't know for sure.