My power rankings for play ins are
- Damwon
- Splyce
- Clutch
- Hong Kong Attitude
- Royal Youth
- Unicorns of Love
- Isurus Gaming
- Lowkey Esports
- Detonation FocusMe
- Flamengo Esports
- MEGA
- Mammoth
That being said, matchups need to be taken into consideration.
Group A: Despite what people say, Clutch is not a coinflip team - they beat the teams weaker than them consistently and lose to better teams. UOL might be able to pose a threat to Clutch, but I don't see it happening since CG has the lategame insurance of Cody Sun and also Damonte feasts on weaker mid laners that aren't able to punish his laning. Top difference should be huge here, as Huni is probably the 2nd (at worst 3rd) best top laner in play in stage. As for UOL vs Mammoth, I expect UOL to win handily - OPL has consistently been a weaker region and while I think Mammoth's bot lane is decent, they're nowhere near the level of the better play-in teams. Clutch 1st, UOL 2nd, Mammoth 3rd.
Group B: Just by team strength alone, Splyce should be able to get out of this group. Here's where problems start to arise though. Splyce is probably the slowest LEC team, not getting many early advantages and having really stagnant midgames (a la LCK but with more mistakes added in). Isurus and DFM have holes that Splyce can exploit (for Isurus, their side lanes, and for DFM, it's beating their one-dimensional playstyle). We saw in LEC playoffs that a fast early-game oriented team like Rogue can crush Splyce, and Isurus is an early-oriented team with a strong mid/jg duo. I expect Isurus to upset Splyce once and split the series. As for DFM, I expect to split games with Isurus since Ceros/Steal can neutralize Seiya/Oddie and then DFM's stronger side lanes can carry them to a win, but lose against Splyce because they don't have the same early pressure that Isurus do. Overall, Splyce 1st (3-1), Isurus 2nd (2-2), DFM 3rd (1-3)
Group C: Hong Kong Attitude, imo, has one of the easier groups in the play-in stage. Lowkey E-sports do have the potential to surprise, however. LKE are really really aggressive and will always leave a high amount of kills on the scoreboard, whether it be their team or the enemy getting the kills. HKA, who play a slower, more controlled style centered around their bot lane, will probably have to adapt quickly. I haven't watched a lot of MEGA but I think they're fairly weak, Lloyd was a former adc and his jungling is pretty mediocre for the play-in stage, G4 is probably the best in the region but even then I'd rate him as average at play-ins. HKA 1st, Lowkey 2nd, and MEGA 3rd.
Group D: Damwon shouldn't have problems with Royal Youth, as their strengths (top/jg with a stable bot) are the same, and the mid difference between Showmaker and Cyeol is huge. Flamengo might be more of a problem for them because they play for BrTT, who's one of the better adcs in play-ins but even then I believe Damwon's topside just hard outclasses Flamengo's. If Damwon doesn't have terrible games, they should easily exit group D in first. Next, for RY and Flamengo, I give Royal Youth the advantage. Flamengo doesn't have the firepower mid to overpower Royal's weakness at the position and Royal's top/jg should edge out Flamengo's. BrTT's advantage botside is nullified here as well because Pilot is a stable bot laner - he won't cede huge advantages to Flamengo (or, at least, I won't expect him to). So Damwon 1st, Royal Youth 2nd, Flamengo 3rd.
As for which teams get matched, if Splyce get matched with Lowkey, I think they have a high probability to lose. If HKA match with Isurus, I also see them having a high probability of losing (honestly, I can see them losing to any of the 2nd place teams). As for Clutch, I can maybe see them having problems with Isurus since they have a strong mid/jg pair and CG's is on the weaker side. Damwon should probably not have problems with any of the 2nd seeds.
Prediction? I'm going to be boring here and say Damwon Clutch Splyce and HKA make it out :P
What I want? Damwon Clutch Isurus and Unicorns of Love
