Fantasy Love/Hate: Week 3

Riot·Jun 10, 2015·0 votes·7,366 views

Whoa, the Summer Split is out of control -- in the best possible way! While Origen tears through Europe for maximum fantasy points, half of NA dukes it out for the top spot. The explosive games have brought plenty of surprise stars to our Fantasy LCS rosters, so keep an eye out for trade opportunities!

For Fantasy Week 3, We Love...

Forg1ven (vs. Copenhagen Wolves, SK Gaming)

Yes, Konstantinos "FORG1VEN" Tzortziou is the lowest-scoring AD carry right now. Yes, Gambit is winless. Yes, he's going to make a comeback this week.

Last week, Gambit showed very real signs of life against the undefeated Fnatic. They prevented a blowout and kept the superstars of Fnatic in check better than any of their previous opponents.

And if they're going to make a comeback, this is the week to kick it off. They've got a soft schedule that should forgive the occasional mistake and let them focus on getting back to what they do best: bullying lanes and snowballing those leads into teamfights. Don't forget that this is the team whose playstyle made them the #1 Fantasy LCS team multiple weeks last split.

You should be able to get Forg1ven dirt cheap right now. It's still a gamble, but he's exactly what you want on your second ADC: tons of personal skill on a huge upside team.

Move (vs. Counter Logic Gaming, Team Dignitas)

Gravity looked like they could be the best team in NA last week. Their wins over Cloud9 and Team Liquid were authoritative and merciless. And at the forefront of both wins was jungler Kang "Move" Min-su, whose Jarvan IV and Rek'Sai ganks earned him piles of kills and assists that turned fantasy owners' heads.

Most importantly, though, he's shaping up to be something exceedingly rare this split: consistent. He scored 48 points in Week 1 and 43 points in Week 2. Every other jungler in the Top 5 of Week 1 dropped below Move in Week 2. Meanwhile, Move didn't move.

This week will be a test for Gravity, but it should give Move plenty of opportunities to scrap and rack up some points.

Odoamne (vs. SK Gaming, Unicorns of Love)

Last Split in this article series, I talked about how I really like a schedule that has one easy game and one tough -- but not unbeatable -- game. That gives your player some surefire (in theory) points, and one game that has the potential to be drawn out, giving them time to build up high kill counts.

In that sense, H2K has the perfect schedule this week. And looking at their squad, I like the potential for Andrei "Odoamne" Pascu in particular to bust out some big numbers.

Odoamne is the #2 point-scorer on the team (only behind their ADC Petter "Hjarnan" Freyschuss), which is very uncommon for a top laner. That means when H2K does well, he's one of the primary benefactors. That's the sort of player I want on my roster, and you should too.

But We Hate...

Vizicsacsi (vs. Origen, H2K)

The Unicorns of Love simply have too tough of a schedule for me to feel comfortable starting anyone on their roster this week. H2K and Origen in particular are especially tough on top laners, which'll limit Kiss "Vizicsacsi" Tamás this week.

Let's take a look at some scary numbers. Origen has only allowed top laners 5.1 points per game, on average. Scared yet? It gets worse: outside of their loss to Origen, H2K has only allowed top laners 3.7 points, on average!

UOL looks really exciting this season, but the key to winning Fantasy LCS leagues is recognizing good weeks for your low-scoring players and bad weeks for your-high scoring players. Your bench players are there for a reason. Give them a chance to shine!

Shiphtur (vs. Team SoloMid, Gravity)

Team Dignitas looks surprisingly strong this Split, and I'm not the only one who's eager to see them become a serious threat in the NA LCS by the time Worlds rolls around. After their incredible fantasy showing last week, many owners snatched them up with plans to start them. Especially Danny "Shiphtur" Le, the #3 mid laner last week!

But, hold up, friends. There isn't a single mid laner in the LCS that I'd be excited about starting on the week that they have to face both Søren "Bjergsen" Bjerg and Lae-Young "Keane" Jang in the central death funnel we call mid lane.

Both of those mid laners, and teams, are on fire right now and pose too much risk to starting this burgeoning squad, if you can avoid it. Opposing mid laners only averaged 8.7 points per game against them last week. And you're going to need more than that to win your matchup.

Josh Augustine's favorite champion is Sivir, he's never enjoyed a Darius, and he will always go for the kill, even when he knows he shouldn't. He currently works as a game designer on EverQuest Next at Daybreak Games. He’d love to talk with you on Twitter.

7 Comments

GasganoJun 10, 20155 votes

My predictions exactly. I gambled on Dignitas last week in all my mediocre rosters and it payed off big time, getting me wins in every single one of my leagues. For this week i traded all of them the second NA was open. They wont succeed this week and they're quite uncontested anyways. UOL is very hit and miss, and i believe in H2K to roll over them. I don't have many of UOL anyways, it's mostly Vardags as my second ADC and if that's the case i usually have a good option for flex besides him, so bench this week. Odo is highly contested and should be your starter in every non 4-man league anyways, since H2K get stomped very rarely. If you have a better toplane then Odo and him, then either you or your opponents made huge mistakes in the drafting process. Gambit is a huge gamble for me since i lost 80% of my matches in the first week because i trusted them big time. But like Josh said, this week is the best to try and i was smart enough to keep all my Forgivens and Cabochards on the bench. Also with Forgivens success there will be some points for Gosu Pepper, who is pretty much non-existent in my leagues rosters, so i guess he's a free agent in many leagues as of now, which might change drastically after this week. And for Move, i have to say that i expected less from Gravity in week 2 since they lost against Enemy and their win against TDK (!) wasn't very convincing. Altough they did look good in week 2, i am a bit careful here. I disagree with the power rankings ranking them over CLG and i don't expect Gravity to win against them. Furthermore, altough i don't trust Dignitas, they are 3-1 for a reason (mostly due to playing T8, C9 and TDK who all look really bad right now) and they could surprise us.

For EU, i would pick every free Gambit member you can find if you have unsafe positions. Origen, Fnatic and H2K are all safer options, but i expect them to be taken already. Giants and UOL are risky in my opinion, and CW only for believers. I wouldn't recommend to start Elements or Roccat and definately not SK.

For NA, i go with TSM, TIP and CLG who i predict are going 2-0, in the case of TIP and CLG with the potential of long games. Gravity and Liquid are reasonable aswell. If you want to gamble big time, go with T8. They have an relatively easy schedule since the 2-2 of Enemy was very shaky and could have been 1-3 aswell (if not 0-4). Starting anyone of C9 is nearly insane unless you are still a fan of them (which again is nearly insane from a fantasy perspective). Dignitas is very unsafe in my opinion, i dislike Enemy because i think they look weak. TDK with their original roster would still have to face TSM and TIP, so that's a secure 0-2 for them.

My 2 cents.

nereusJun 11, 20151 votes

I love seeing additional insight like this in the comments! Thanks for taking the time to write all of this up :)

GasganoJun 11, 20151 votes

You're welcome :) It's not like i am at the top in every league i participate in, but i enjoy to predict what this weeks schedule means for Fantasy Leagues ;)

drpopandfizzJun 11, 20152 votes

Yeah, I love UOL, but I just think it's a risk to start anyone on the team. I also took a gamble on DIG last week with Azingy, and it paid off. I strongly believe in playing the matchups is more important than the strong players. Your always going to have a few people you won't move, but the rest of them-and especially the team you are using- you want to play the best matchup you can.

Right now, I think picking up Giants players are a much safer pick. they so far have beat all teams lower than them (CW, EL and SK), only losing to the powerhouse that is Origen. They have much to prove still, but right now is the biggest surprise (along with DIG) in the first 2 weeks. Plus, they are facing Roccat, another weaker team they should beat, and it wouldn't suprise me if they beat Fnatic.

Origen and Fnatic should be all taken up, and should be in everyone's starting lineups. They are both facing a weak team this week, along with a top half team as well. I much rather have origen, since they just seem unstoppable at this point, and I believe Giants can pull the upset against Fnatic. Still take them and start them, since Fnatic plays Elements, who they should destroy.

H2K i would also take if they aren't all taken. They are facing the dreadful SK, and facing UOL who to me, haven't impressed me yet.

If your looking for a gamble, i would take either Gambit or CW, just cause both teams have really weak matchups, and both had a glimmer of hope last week in my opinion. They don't look nearly as bad as Elements and SK do, and Roccat's schedule is just too tough to start them. Lock them in: Origen (Duh), Fnatic Start em': Giants, H2K Caution: UOL. Gamble, but possibly worth it: Gambit, CW Stay Away: Elements, Roccat, SK

As for NA, I disagree with your take on Move and gravity. I believe they can beat CLG, and should beat DIG. DIG right now just had a very favorable schedule, and haven't been proven yet. Yet, unlike Giants in EU, who had a similar thing happen to them, I just haven't found them that impressive in their wins. Just for that, I would start gravity. Plus Move has played fantastic right now, and they have the best support in the NA LCS imo.

I do agree with you that TSM and TIP should go 2-0, so start them.

Team 8? I really enjoyed T8 last split, but right now they just look like a shell of the team i loved last spilt. nothing looks good on them.

There is a few teams that have a good matchup, along with a not so favorable one, mainly cause of the big split between the top 5 teams and the bottom 5. The two teams that have this I would take a chance on is TL and Enemy. But both of these (especially Enemy) is a gamble.

Lock Them in: TSM (duh), TIP Start em': Gravity, CLG, TL Caution: DIG Gamble, but possibly worth it: Enemy. Stay Away: C9, T8, TDK.

GasganoJun 11, 20151 votes

I am careful with Gravity since they only looked strong last week, which is not enough to hype them in my opinion. They look reasonable strong, but i would not trade them in for any TSM, TIP, CLG and maybe not even for TL players. I agree that they should beat Dignitas and i certainly think that even if they lose the game would be really long. But their late game is still unproven and as much as i trust Cops ability to lead them into a good team comp, there is potential for Dig winning in the long run with a superior comp, since Dignitas should be able to withstand Gravitys early- to midgame as they looked quite strong in that regard aswell. If we talk about Fantasy points, Gravity is certainly not a bad choice this week, that's not what i wanted to say. I don't agree with that amount of hype though and i am not sold on them going 2-0 this week.

About T8, i don't start any of them, i am lucky enough to have my positions filled with members from upper half teams and the occasional Sneaky/Balls for some reason. But they have the easiest schedule on paper. I say this because i really dislike Enemys performance as of now. They might have a higher ceiling then T8, but i feel that they are far away from it and they didn't convince me once as of now. Neither did T8, but i just feel that they could go 2-0 this week so if you like to gamble that might be yours.