Fantasy Love / Hate: Week 7
Lucky number 7. There's absolutely no chance anything goes wrong for us in Fantasy LCS this week, right?
At least that's what I'm choosing to believe for now, and here's my advice for how you can help put the odds in your favor this week.
For Fantasy Week 7, We Love...
Hauntzer (vs. Cloud9, Enemy Esports)
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Gravity's top laner Kevin "Hauntzer" Yarnell has been a pretty steady backup or flex starter this Split. He's only broken into the top 5 list for his position twice, but he's never been in the bottom 10 -- his return on investment for owners has been consistently average.
But he's spiked recently, grabbing the No. 1 point-scoring spot on his team for two of the past three weeks with an average of 46 points per week. That's an impressive stat line that's only surpassed by a few stud top laners.
Hauntzer scored 41 points against this week's opponents earlier the Split. There's very little reason to expect he'll do anything less than that this week.
Dyrus (vs. Team8, Team Liquid)
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Forget the first two weeks of the Split. Look at the fantasy stats for July, and you'll see Marcus "Dyrus" Hill has been putting up a monster year in TSM's top lane. He even grabbed the No. 1 top laner spot in Week 3.
He's averaging 22 points per game, only three points less than Fnatic's Seong "Huni" Hoon Heo, the No. 1 overall fantasy top laner this Split so far, and only four points less than the No. 1 drafted Søren "Bjergsen" Bjerg.
Full disclosure: Team Liquid and Team8 won three of their four games last week, and managed to contain opposing top laners to very low points (10 points/game average). But I expect TSM to put up a much stronger fight and to have a very good chance of winning both matches, which is what we need to truly unlock Dyrus' potential. If you think TL is too hot to lose right now, adjust your predictions accordingly.
Ninja (vs. Team Liquid, Counter Logic Gaming)
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This man outplayed Bjergsen -- repeatedly -- in last week's match against TSM. Team Dragon Knights finally have their full roster and are looking good enough that I'm ready to be cautiously optimistic about their fantasy potential.
Even though they lost both of their matches last week, Noh "Ninja" Geon-woo showed incredible mechanics and tactical outsmarts that let him still amass 40 points and grab the No. 10 mid laner spot -- higher than many mid laners who won matches!
TDK isn't ready to contend for Playoffs yet, but they should improve and win more games in future weeks. This week has a tough schedule for Ninja, but he's already proven he can score well in losses. I'd rather grab him now and absorb the short-term risk, while waiting for his seemingly inevitable upswing to carry my fantasy squad in later weeks.
And, who knows! They might even win one this week -- the CLG curse seems to be alive and well.
But We Hate...
Innox (vs. Counter Logic Gaming, Gravity)
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If you've been reading this column for awhile, you know that I highly value consistency in my fantasy picks. Knowing that you can count on a player to perform at least decently every single week will help you out a ton over the course of a Split, especially when you hit weeks that have bad matchups for your players. But I really want to see occasional spikes of points in those consistent players (which is what I'm typically referring to when I say I want players with "upside" -- every week there's a chance for surprise bonus points).
Tyson "Innox" Kapler has been incredibly consistent this Split. Almost too consistent. His spot on the mid laner fantasy ranks this Split have been: No. 7, No. 13, No. 7, No. 10, No. 11, No. 11 -- nearly identical and never very exciting.
So keep that in mind when you interpret the awesome stats the Fantasy LCS page shows you about Innox this week. It will tell you that he scored 35 points against Gravity the last time they faced off. And that's true, it was an awesome game! But it was the very first day of the Split, back when Gravity looked shaky and very unlike the incredibly dominant squad we saw last weekend.
Innox should still be a decent, reliable backup mid laner this week. But don't let those past-match stats send you over to crazy-train hype-land.
Adryh (vs. Origen, Gambit Gaming)
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AD carries are typically the No. 1 fantasy player on their teams. That's not always the case -- especially this Split -- but looking at what rank the ADC is within their own team gives you a good idea of how important that player is to the team's success, and how many points he'll get you when they win.
Adrián "Adryh" Perez hasn't been the No. 1 player on Giants Gaming since Week 4. Their squad plays around mid laner Isaac "Pepiinero" Flores the vast majority of the time. And that means Adryh simply doesn't get the same support that other ADCs enjoy on teams that focus more on bot lane. And that means less overall fantasy points for Adryh owners.
This looks like it could be a rough week for everyone on Giants, but their team's strategic focus on mid lane means that it'll hit Adryh especially hard.
Josh Augustine's favorite champion is Nidalee, he's never enjoyed a Darius, and he will always go for the kill, even when he knows he shouldn't. He currently works as a game designer on EverQuest Next at Daybreak Games. He’d love to talk with you on Twitter.
