Kobe's Guide to Group D

On September 29, the 2016 World Championship gets the green light. Group D is our third preview and people have already begun to refer to it as the group of death once again.

Before I dive into how it might shape up, make sure you take the time check out Jatt’s Group A Guide as well as Deficio and Krepo’s breakdown of Group C. We'll get Group B to you in the coming days as well!

Now let's see why people think this group is so scary.

Group D

TSM, RNG, SSG, SPY

Let's start off by addressing most people’s initial reactions to the group draw, "AHHHH GROUP D IS THE GROUP OF DEATH AGAIN!" Why? Well, the group consists of North America's No. 1 seed, TSM, coming off a historically strong Summer Split. But they're also coming from a region that has had very little success at Worlds. On the other hand it has Samsung Galaxy, Korea's No. 3 seed, who had a mediocre Summer Split -- but a very impressive Regional Qualifier run and are representing a region that has shown almost complete international dominance for years.

The next Pool 2 team is China's Royal Never Give Up, the LPL’s No. 2 seed, with a star studded lineup including former World Champions and Worlds Finalists. The roster is filled with extremely impressive individual players, but I also expect them to have huge variances in their performances due to their lack of caution around late game objectives resulting in a shaky macro game. Rounding out the group is Europe's No. 3 seed, Splyce, who have shown tremendous growth and made it all the way to the EU LCS Summer Finals with a strong early grasp on the meta and team play.

I agree that these teams are fairly close in overall strength but I still think this group shakes out in the prototypical way with the Pool 1 team getting out and the Pool 3 team being left behind. TSM may not be a powerhouse Pool 1 team like ROX or Edward Gaming, but their individual players have been extremely strong -- save for maybe some questions people have around Hauntzer stacking up to international competition after Impact had such a good showing vs. him in the Finals.

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Bjergsen always deserves a mention, and I do think that Doublelift is the strongest ADC in the group. Yes, even better overall than the famous two-time Worlds finalist Uzi. On top of the individuals, which may be rivaled by some key members of Samsung (Crown, Ambition, and either of the supports in  CoreJJ or Wraith) and RNG (All of them!), I also have been impressed with TSM’s ability to adapt this year, both in game and out, which is something the team has historically lacked. The improvements in Bjergsen and Doublelift’s shotcalling and dedication to a proactive playstyle give them an edge over teams like RNG and push them towards the top of the group.

Alas, this also means that I believe Splyce to be fairly convincingly near the bottom of the group and unlikely to advance past the Group Stage. As great as their run from the Promotion Tournament up to the EU LCS Finals was, their actual Finals performance and their performance in the Finals of the Regional Qualifier did not inspire confidence. I think they will struggle in the early stages of the game vs. all three opponents and won't be able to manipulate their way to too many wins later in the game. That being said, they do have the possibility of having a very good bootcamp due to the work ethic of the players and might prove me wrong.

This is why the biggest debate for me comes down to Samsung vs. RNG, even though the reason this group is considered a group of death is because both of these teams could also heavily pressure TSM and make a push for 1st place in the group. As I said before, I think RNG have individual players who could challenge at every single position. However, they have a willingness to start up Baron over and over again -- with very little prep and five opponents still alive and healthy. Combine this with their untempered aggression in the bottom side of the map -- which drains their resources and sets them up for punishment by globals, as seen in the Finals by EDG -- and I keep dropping them down my list.

Meanwhile, Samsung has a solid late game and even some great individual performers like Crown, but I can’t seem to shake the feeling that the team over performed in their gauntlet run. They made a ton of improvements and identified some key openings in the meta, like CuVee practicing Kennen a bunch in Solo Queue, but there is no guarantee that they will continue playing in their gauntlet form come worlds. Najin White Shield made an epic run through the gauntlet in 2014 to represent Korea as the No. 3 seed but then failed to impress, for example.

So! That brings us to my predictions. Even though these teams seem relatively close and a lot can also change in the pre-Worlds bootcamp, these are the standings I feel are most likely to occur.

1. TSM
2. Samsung
3. RNG
4. Splyce

Now let's dive a bit deeper into the stories behind these players, the work they put in to get here, and some pros and cons of the teams.

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TSM

• Top: Hauntzer
• Jungle: Svenskeren
• Mid: Bjergsen
• ADC: Doublelift
• Support: Biofrost

From North America, we have TSM -- an organization known by League of Legends players across the world. They’ve won the most NA LCS Championship titles, however, despite domestic success, TSM and all of NA have struggled on the Worlds stage. It pains me to mention this, but we do have to remember that both Bjergsen and Doublelift were star players on the infamous 2015 NA Worlds teams who went 0-10 in Week 2 of the Group Stage. It was one of the most heartbreaking weeks ever for NA fans and one of the reasons why NA feels they have something to prove this year.

Following the disappointing showing at Worlds, and the retirement of one of League of Legends' most iconic players in Dyrus, TSM decided to rebuild the entire team around Bjergsen for the 2016. They spent top dollar to bring in star players from both the EU LCS -- Fnatic’s YellowStar -- and Doublelift from their rival NA LCS team, Counter Logic Gaming. However, in the Spring Split, TSM fans learned that money does not buy happiness, and it most definitely does not buy success -- at least for TSM during the normal season.

TSM finished with their lowest Playoffs seed ever -- 6th place -- but were able to patch up some of their problems in the postseason, making a strong run to the Finals. There, they barely lost against CLG in a 3-2 series. Following that loss, TSM decided to bring in Biofrost, a rookie support player, to replace YellowStar, who returned to the EU LCS.

They refocused and doubled up on their practice efforts. Doublelift will tell you every chance he gets how TSM is the hardest working team in all of the NA LCS. How they have dedicated themselves to six day work weeks. How they’ve employed a full time sports psychologist to help focus every ounce of competitive drive on the team into one goal: success at the World Championship.

Yes, TSM just had their most dominating LCS Split ever this Summer. But that means little to the team. This year they are out to redeem themselves and their region, with no caveats and no excuses.

How will they do well?

• If they can continue to have strong early game standard lane performances vs. international opponents, it will be a huge advantage. TSM had extremely strong standard lane performances from all three lanes in the Summer Split. All three were 1st place for creep score difference at 10 minutes (CSD@10) in standard lanes: +9 for Hauntzer, +5.9 for Bjergsen, and +8.4 for Doublelift.
• If their laners are able to perform against international opponents, then they should be able to continue controlling the jungle. Svenskeren led the league in time spent counter-jungling during the regular season for standard lanes with 17.8%, while his closest competitor was at 12.8%.
• If they are able to keep up their strict practice schedule without burning out while quickly learning the new “Worlds meta”. They will probably have a good chance at this because they were one of the first teams to leave for the Korean bootcamp and are one of the most famous teams in the world, so many foreign teams want to scrim against them.

How will they do poorly?

• If the improvements we’ve seen in TSM shotcalling from Bjergsen and Doublelift deteriorates and they are unable to maintain their proactive playstyle, or they fall behind early and panic under pressure.
• If Biofrost and Hauntzer are unable to perform against international competition in their first Worlds appearance.
• If they become too predictable in their approach to the game and fail to adapt, as has been the case for the organization in the past.

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Royal Never Give Up

• Top: Looper
• Jungle: MLXG
• Mid: XiaoHu
• ADC: UZI
• Support: Mata

From China's LPL, we have RNG. A team of superstars who have all had some measure of success -- and who have all also suffered a bit of a fall from grace. Mata and Looper come to mind first -- they prepare to play against the same organization they conquered the competitive League of Legends scene with: Samsung Galaxy.

Both pros moved to China and both dropped off the Worlds radar by failing to qualify for the World Championship in 2015. But now, they’ve found new success on RNG. Adding the homegrown Chinese talent of the spicy jungler MLXG (his name stands for spicy hot pot) and the rising star mid Xiaohu helped RNG make it to the 2016 Mid-Season Invitational in Shanghai. RNG’s decisive play at MSI -- combined with the Summer Split hype of adding the huge star power of ADC Uzi to the team -- means there are great expectations for the team to continue and expand its successes.

And while they finished 1st in their group during the regular season of the LPL, they were stomped by EDG in the Finals 0-3, exposing some of the weaknesses that analysts have been picking on. A couple examples include their failure to set up and control late game objectives and their tendency to take risky Baron fights.

Regardless of meta changes, team play, or risk tolerance, the star power on this team and historical success of the individual players cannot be ignored. They have two World Champions, another two-time Worlds Finalist, and two MSI Semifinalists -- all hungry for another taste of international success.

How will they do well?

• If Uzi just wins them a game by himself. This happens at international events for him all the time, and this season, he is coming into Worlds with the 2nd highest damage per minute (DPM) of any LPL ADC at 705.
• If MLXG has a resurgence and builds his confidence off of early round success. He has been a bit disappointing to me this summer, and ever since Uzi was added to the team, he has become predictable and relatively ineffective compared to his former self.
• If they crush their opposition early, outclassing their opponents man-for-man across the map.

How will they do poorly?

• If they fail to control the Baron pit. While they succeed more often than they fail, their risky Baron attempts leaves the door open for a lot of crazy situations that could undermine their chances for escaping this group.
• If they fail in the bottom lane when targeted with multiple globals and jungle attention, similar to the tactic employed by EDG vs. them in the LPL Summer Finals.

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Samsung Galaxy

• Top: CuVee
• Jungle: Ambition
• Mid: Crown
• ADC: Ruler
• Support: CoreJJ

Hailing from Korea, we have Samsung Galaxy, a name that brings to mind a Samsung Galaxy White squad that was one of the strongest League of Legends teams the world has ever known. However, following their 2014 World Championship victory, the organization suffered a complete collapse as their entire Championship roster was split up and bought off.

After a year and a half of rebuilding efforts and many roster changes, Samsung has finally reclaimed their spot at Worlds, but it was not an easy road. After bouncing around between 4th and 6th place for most of the LCK Spring Split, they stabilized over the summer and were widely considered the 4th best team in the LCK, right behind KT Rolster, who had beaten them in 19 straight games. This included a 0-3 defeat to them in the Summer Playoffs before KT barely lost to the ROX Tigers in a close 3-2 Final.

SSG did not take their beating in Playoffs lightly though. Crown and CuVee both took it upon themselves to spam practice games and expand their champion pools during the break as a response to some criticism during Playoffs. As a result, they rallied to take their revenge on KT, and in the process, broke a 19 game loss streak and earned a spot at Worlds.

The team is lead by a veteran in Ambition, who has been diligently working towards Worlds since 2012, when he was a single game away from qualifying with Azubu Blaze in the Season 2 Regional Finals. And while Ambition is the eldest on the team, and does the majority of the shot calling, the brightest gem on SSG this summer has been Crown. He's returned to Korea after his time competing in Brazil with some extremely impressive Viktor and Varus play in the mid lane. And while Crown has found success returning to Korea, and Ambition has finally qualified for Worlds after swapping roles, CoreJJ has done both!

Another underdog story, CoreJJ struggled to find much success with Team Dignitas in the NA LCS before he left them to join Samsung at the beginning of 2016. He didn’t have immediate success after changing from ADC to support, but showed up in a very big way on champions like Bard and Tahm Kench in the Regional Finals, helping to earn himself and his teammates a spot at Worlds.

This highly motivated team has put in a ton of work and wants to make the most of their long awaited worlds run and chance at glory!

How will they do well?

• If they continue to build on their improvements seen in the Regional Qualifiers, especially from CuVee and CoreJJ.
• If Crown continues to impress in the mid lane and expands his champion pool even further as the “Worlds meta” evolves. He wants to carry the same laning prowess over from the LCK Summer Split, where he was 2nd place in solo kills for mid laners (13) and had the 2nd highest CSD@10 for the regular season with 4.3.

How will they do poorly?

• If they revert to their regular season form, and inconsistencies show through. And although Ambition has had many impressive performances, he is coming into the tournament with the 4th highest first blood deaths of anyone. Furthermore, CoreJJ does not have a proven track record of success.
• If Ruler gets caught. He had more “solo deaths” -- dying with no team member around -- than any other ADC in the LCK this summer at 20, with a big gap between him and the next highest at 14.

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Splyce

• Top: Wunder
• Jungle: Trashy
• Mid: Sencux
• ADC: Kobbe
• Support: Mikyx

From Europe, we have a rookie team in Splyce, who was too young to even play in the LCS in the 2015 Spring Split, where they made it to the Challenger Series Playoffs but had to forfeit and wait for Summer when they were of age. They auto-qualified by winning the Challenger Series and many fans had high hopes for them coming into their first Split. But the 2016 Spring Split saw them struggle mightily as they fell into the Promotion Tournament and were tasked with fighting for their survival.

Fan support for the team quickly turned to disappointment and criticism. But Splyce steeled themselves against the backlash and rallied to fight their way back from the brink of relegation by defeating Giants Gaming in a nail-biting five-game Best of 5 series. The team responded by adding Mickyx to the roster and decided to dedicate all of their time to practice to improve for the 2016 Summer Split -- instead of taking a break in the offseason.

They focused heavily on teamwork, improving their macro play, and adapting to patch changes before their opponents could figure them out, all in order to work their way up the EU LCS ladder. After around Week 3 of the Summer Split, they were able to acquire G2 Esports, the defending EU LCS Champions, as their main practice partner and eventually battled all the way to the EU LCS Summer Split Finals.

Now that their hard work has paid off and they have earned their spot at Worlds, this scrappy band looks to prove themselves on the international stage.

How will they do well?

• If the dedication to improvement their young players have shown continues to pay off during the Worlds bootcamp as they thrive in the new practice environment.
• If they are able to make it past the early game without too great a deficit and utilize their understanding of the late game to play the map, earning an advantage through macro play rather than straight up fighting.

How will they do poorly?

• If they fail to strengthen their early game objective control: During the Summer Split they had the lowest number of first towers and first dragons taken at 30% and 40% -- respectively.
• If Sencux gets completely bullied out of mid lane vs. Bjergsen, Xiaohu, and Crown, who are all some of the most anticipated mid laners at the entire tournament. For example, Sencux has lowest CSD@10 in all of the EU LCS for both Spring and Summer Splits.
• If the mid and late game map play that earned them victories in the EU LCS does not stand up to their international competition.

All said and done, I am very excited for Group D and the first week of games, starting on September 29 in San Francisco altogether. Week 1 of the Group Stage is my favorite time of the year because we get to see some some long awaited international competition, what has changed in the month of preparation these teams took before Worlds, and finally we get some concrete evidence of how the teams stack up.