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Group B preview and predictions

RiotRiot Jatt·9/16/2015, 3:21:25 AM·73 votes·79,396 views

Group B

FNC, iG, AHQ, C9

While Group A is the only group that does not consist of a Chinese team, Group B is the only group that doesn’t consist of a Korean team. In past years, this would be a fortuitous group to land in due to having no Korean teams. Yet this year, I don’t see the same benefit. With the way the draw is structured, FNC was pulling two of the eight pool two teams into their group, with pool two consisting of (In order of my personal power ranking): EDG, iG, KT, KOO, AHQ, TSM, FW, H2K. This post isn’t about pool 2 rankings, but this is just to give an idea of the relative strength of who FNC pulled into their group (2nd and 5th)

It’s not quite “the group of death” but it is quite a strong group from top to bottom. At a high level, this is a 3 horse race between FNC, iG, and AHQ, with C9 being the longshot. With that, let’s take a closer look at the teams.

Fnatic

Where to start with Fnatic? They are the best team the EU LCS has ever produced. 18-0 regular season, 3-0 in the Quarterfinals, and then a testing 5 game series against Origen in the EU LCS finals. I actually did a video piece before summer playoffs on Fnatic which you can watch here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHagFRf1mYs

What I want to focus on is how Fnatic could falter, and how they actually faltered during the EU Finals.

One of the core tenants of Fnatic’s team compositions is triple threat (Top, Mid, Bot) and Reignover on a tank. During their two defeats to Origen in the playoffs, they abandoned those principles. Game 1, they ran Lulu top, Viktor mid, Trist ADC, but a Runeglaive Elise out of the jungle. They lacked initiation and tank presence, and OG poked them hard. The other game they lost (game 4) was a somewhat similar story. They ran GP top, Viktor mid, Corki ADC, and Nidalee in the jungle. Again, Fnatic had no tank presence and no real initiation. Origen got Niels to late game on Trist/Lulu and won a long drawn out game.

Fnatic has since admitted that they had poor drafting, and vowed that they will fix it in the future, but this series exposed some vulnerability. That’s not to say Fnatic is without strengths. They were an 18-0 regular season team, they have solid team structure (coach, clear captain in Yellowstar, good management) and they also have talented players in every single role. They also have shown strong mental strength both during comebacks during the regular season, as well as bouncing back mid-series after suffering their first defeat of the split, ending their chance at a 24-0 run.

How they finish 1st

  • By drafting around their strengths as a team, and standing up to the pressure of their expectations.

  • Let’s be clear, not only is Fnatic the best team Europe has sent to worlds since season 2, they also have extremely high expectations (semi-finals)

  • When Fnatic is humming on all cylinders, they are clearly a world class team. Huni stepped up and outplayed Marin during MSI, Febiven was able to solo kill Faker twice (in a favorable matchup, but he still solo killed Faker...) and they have also upgraded their ADC spot substantially since MSI. Also, if Huni has mastered the champion he is playing, he becomes a beast. Many of Fnatics issues have been when Huni is target banned (early spring split playoffs) or forced to play champions he’s not familiar on (GP in summer finals). If they get Huni into a comfort zone and allow him to drive the team forward, Febiven and Rekkles are more than capable of taking home 1st in this group.

How they finish 2nd

  • By adapting quickly after losses, and leveraging their experience to push through the group.

  • Even though Fnatic was 18-0 in EU, it’s likely that they drop atleast a game vs. iG or AHQ (considering AHQ beat them handily at MSI.) It will be critical for them to adapt quickly to whatever plan/strategy that beat them, and not let it happen again. This is Yellowstar’s 5th worlds, and he will need to leverage his experience and sense of calm to guide Fnatic to 2nd place in the group.

How they finish 3rd

  • If they are unable to adapt to the worlds patch, and if their conservative tendencies from the summer split catch up with them.

  • Something that is common amongst teams that win so many games, is they are used to simply being “better” than the other team. This can manifest in their playstyle and make them risk averse. You could see this at points during Fnatic’s summer split. They would play highly conservative lanes, sometimes even giving up small advantages in the early game because they had so much faith in their ability to outplay and win in the mid and late game. This works against inferior teams. This doesn’t work on the world stage. Fnatic is completely capable of playing risk-taking, aggressive styles, but more often than not they played risk-averse league of legends during the summer split. If they are unable to transition to a higher risk style of game, they ‘risk’ falling to 3rd in this group.

How they finish 4th

  • With a total collapse. If they are out-strategized, if they don’t adapt to picks, and if they crumble under the pressure of worlds.

  • There are definite vulnerabilities for Fnatic, and if all of them are exposed and Fnatic is unable to recover mid-group, it’s very possible they drop games to every team here. It’s unlikely, but if all of these things happen they will finish 4th in the group.

My prediction: 2nd

  • Not much has changed in my mind since the group draw show, where I predicted Fnatic to finish 2nd. What’s interesting is Fnatic’s placement had the most variance even in the draw show, with Deficio picking them for 1st, and Spawn picking them for 3rd.

  • I think they will finish 2nd because, at the end of the day, they are a strong team with good coaching and good management. I have faith in Febiven and Rekkles to stand up to whatever Mid/Bot lane combos get thrown at them, and I think Huni has the potential to take over a few games, even if he falls short in a few game and Fnatic loses them. I predict them to place 2nd and advance.

iG

This team has a lot of natural story heading into the group stage. Kid and Zz1tai have been with iG seemingly forever, with both participating in the season 2 world championship where they advanced from groups and lost to Moscow 5 in the Quarterfinals. Additionally, they have KaKAO and Rookie formerly of the KT Arrows, who will be making their first appearance at worlds.

  • Zz1tai was actually a liability for most of the spring split, struggling with his move from mid lane where he had played most of his career, to top lane to make room for Rookie. Early in the year he was actually splitting games with Pokemon, iG’s other top laner. Once regionals hit however, Zz1tai took his game to the next level. He had tremendous success on top lane carries, and could fall back on his “champion ocean” that he’s always been known for. Even in his mid lane days back in season 2, Zz1tai has been able to play everything, and has always had a flair for the aggressive style. This is the “patch of Zz1tai” as far as predicted meta top lane champions are concerned, and it couldn’t come at a better time for iG.

  • KaKAO is known by some as the best jungler in the world. That was definitely the hype surrounding him in 2014 when he led the KT-Arrows to a Champions Summer victory in Korea. Unfortunately it all came crashing down in the regional qualifier when they lost to Najin Shield. Remember, in 2014 the Champions Summer winners did not auto-qualify for worlds, and KT Arrows was a casualty of that system. This year in the LPL KaKAO has been continuing his brand of amazing jungling, varying between two distinct playstyles. He will either go incredibly farm heavy in the early game and try to carry the mid-late game with his gold advantage, or he will take to ganking lanes early and often and look to take over the game with sheer pressure. KaKAO is definitely one of the best junglers at worlds, and will look to dominate a weak pool of junglers heading there this year.

  • Rookie loves Karaoke, and also singing. He actually sang with Cool in a promotional video by the LPL before MSI.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YM9L8i9nSfo

and lyrics here: http://lol.duowan.com/1505/294785509227.html

But on a serious note, Rookie is one of the most devastating laners in the LPL. He can take over the game on a variety of champions, whether it be TF/Lulu where he helps everyone else, or Yasuo/Ekko where he hard carries the game from mid. He also played Viktor 3x in a row in their decisive qualification match against QG in the regional qualifier. Rookie is a force.

  • Kid has been around since... he was a kid. He’s still just 18 years old despite playing competitively since 2012. He has never really been known for being great, but has consistently maintained a presence in the LPL, a region known for exceptional ADCs. He was actually ‘benched’ for a short time during the summer split, so he would have time to recover mentally and improve. You may remember the “least damage done by an ADC in a competitive match” which can be seen here:

https://i.imgur.com/wQ41Hh2.jpg

that was Kid dealing 443 damage to champions across an entire game. ADC “Time” played 8 matches while Kid was out, and then Kid finished out the season strong.

  • Kitties is quite interesting, as he is the successor to legendary support XiaoXiao on iG, who attended the 2013 All-star game for China. Kitties was “hand picked” by XiaoXiao when XiaoXiao retired, and has only ever played with Kid, save for a few games with Time. He is a big time Janna player, which is rather rare in an LPL meta known for team-fighting and engaging. Kitties was also blamed for the slump of Kid, as the bot lane tends to rely on one another. All in all, if you’re looking for a comparison, Kid/Kitties are very much like a better version of Apollo and Adrian from TiP, a duo who tries to keep up with the aggressive playmakers on the other side of the map.

How they finish 1st

  • By playing like they did in LPL summer playoffs and Regionals.

  • During the Summer Split, iG was plagued by inconsistency. They played very much like the KT Arrows of old. However, with the current patch and the emergence of Zz1tai as a carry top laner, they are a completely different beast.

  • It will be very difficult for teams to match the laning prowess of Zz1tai and Rookie, combined with the jungle pressure of KaKAO. If they can execute on their high pressure early game strategies, they can win this competitive group and finish 1st.

How they finish 2nd

  • By playing over-aggressive, and displaying the inconsistency that plagued them during the summer split.

  • Even though the LPL plays best of 2’s, with 1 point being rewarded for a 1-1 series, and 3 points being rewarded for a 2-0, iG managed a paltry 55% win rate during the summer split regular season (24-20), which is hardly impressive when you look at the bottom of the LPL which consists of some weak teams.

  • Zz1tai has been the worst offender as far as inconsistency is concerned. Bouncing between Maokai, Fizz, Shen, and a host of other top lane picks, he never quite found his groove. While he did find a groove on patch 5.16, whether he can solidify that into consistency is yet to be seen. If Zz1tai fails to find his groove, this team will be much like the 55% win rate LPL team, and could finish 2nd.

How they finish 3rd

  • If the above is true, and if Rookie and KaKAO fail to perform on the world stage.

  • This isn’t the first time KaKAO and Rookie have been hyped heading into a big event, and they have also waited an extra year to go to worlds after being so close in 2014 with the KT Arrows. If Rookie becomes a mere mortal in the mid-lane, or if KaKAO can’t gain an upper hand with jungle pressure, iGs aggressive playstyle could turn against them, and they would be hard pressed to find win conditions in their matchups.

How they finish 4th

  • This is extremely unlikely, and would require a herculean effort by C9 in this group. Not only would iG have to underperform across many different dimensions, but C9 would have to over-index as the 3rd seed from NA. I will touch on this more in the C9 section.

  • If this set of conditions is met (all the bad stuff from 2nd and 3rd, +C9 playing great), they could finish 4th.

My prediction: 1st

  • Despite the inconsistent regular season, I feel like this team has come together at just the right time. I think they are the 4th strongest team at worlds and the strongest team in this group.

  • While this group is competitive from top to bottom, I feel like the skill level, combined with the risk-taking playstyle that iG brings, will be enough to land them atop this group.

AHQ

AHQ was ridiculously dominant in the summer split of the LMS. As an example, they lost more games (4) to EDG at MSI, than they did in the entirety of the summer split and playoffs (3). Also, AHQ surprised many when the defeated both TSM and FNC handily during the group stage at MSI. What they need to prove this year is not only was their MSI performance not a fluke, but also that they are a top team in the world.

  • Ziv fits this story perfectly. This is a player who isn’t well known internationally, but LMS caster Clement Chu calls “the best player on AHQ.” Everyone who plays against Ziv raves about his abilities as a player. Despite Maokai being by far his most played champion in summer (13 plays) he hardly ever loses lane, and has exquisite teamfight positioning and TP timing. He exerts a large amount of control and pressure from the top lane, and it will be fascinating to see how he adapts to the new top lane at worlds.

  • Mountain is a fairly recent addition to AHQ’s starting roster. Throughout most of the spring split, Albis was jungle and GreenTea was support. Right before AHQ made their run through the playoffs to qualify for MSI, Mountain stepped in as jungle, Albis moved to support, and GreenTea moved into a coaching position. This player swap worked wonders. As the split has progressed, Mountain has shown dominating play on tank junglers such as Gragas, Rek’Sai and Ekko, and is a big reason why AHQ has been so dominant.

  • Westdoor. Oh Westdoor. He is easily the most famous player on this team, as well as the most hyped. Generally the hype is justified, as he has shown up in a big way during Worlds in 2014, as well as at MSI this year. However, it’s important to note that Westdoor is not the only story for this team. He has a -2.4 CS differential @10 on average, due to his frequent roaming early to create plays. Additionally, many LMS watchers actually peg Maple as the best mid-laner in the LMS, not Westdoor. Traditionally teams throw 2-3 bans at Westdoor per game, partly due to his proficiency on TF and Fizz, but also due to his relatively limited champion pool outside of that small set. One boon for Westdoor is he has added Diana into his champion pool, and also found significant success on Ahri this year. Westdoor is certainly unique, and his champion pool as well as skill will be heavily tested by Rookie, Febiven, and Incarnati0n in this group.

  • AN. While most teams have their mid-laner as the highest % of teams damage on average, AHQ has AN with that title. This is partially due to Westdoor favoring assassins over high damage mages, but also due to how many resources AHQ routinely funnels AN’s way. It is rather common in AHQ games to have 5v5 scuffles in the bottom lane pre-10 minutes, because so many ganks are focused down bottom, as well as Westdoor already having a propensity for roaming. Additionally, AN’s mechanics are strong. Most if not all LMS players also rank themselves in Korean soloQ, and AN was once as high as the top 10. These factors are particularly evident in the results. Despite having the majority of his regular season games on Sivir, he still averaged a +11.6 CSD at 10 minutes, which is extremely high.

How they finish 1st

  • If their dominating LMS performance carries into the group stage, and they can outpace the other teams in the group.

  • AHQ is similar to FNC in the sense that they have been so overwhelmingly dominant in their region that it’s hard to gauge how they respond to adversity. In the LMS, Westdoor has been able to roam early without being punished and AHQ has been able to apply heavy pressure to bottom lane and get AN ahead. If they can execute on their core strategy, and if Westdoor can get rolling on assassins against the powerful mid laners in this group, AHQ can take 1st.

How they finish 2nd

  • By replicating their MSI group stage performance.

  • During the MSI group stage, AHQ defeated FNC and TSM, and lost to EDG and SKT. Essentially they beat the best teams from Europe and NA, and lost to the best teams from Korea and China. In this group, there is no Korean team. Fnatic will be the biggest obstacle to place 2nd in this group, as they are MUCH improved since MSI. AHQ is also an improved team. With an entire split to solidify Mountain as their jungler and Albis as support, AHQ has been able to refine their playstyle and get into a good groove. If they maintain that improvement heading into this group, they can take 2nd.

How they finish 3rd

  • If Westdoor is punished, and AN is unable to get a snowball going from bot-lane teamfights.

  • It all depends on the map play and how AHQ’s lanes matchup against the talent in this group. Normally for AHQ, Ziv is a rock in the top lane, and Westdoor is able to freely roam to create opportunities. Against Huni and Zz1tai, it is questionable whether or not Ziv can be a reliable winner in lane. Additionally, if Westdoor is under heavy pressure in the mid lane, AN and Albis may be left to their own devices to get an advantage, and may not even have the attention of their jungler Mountain since he may need to assist other lanes.

How they finish 4th

  • If the LMS has been weak this whole time, and their performance at MSI was a fluke. Or, if they crumble under the pressure of being the LMS’s #1 team and tilt after a slow start to the group.

  • This result would also only result if the playstyle problems outlined above come to fruition. While the LMS had resurgence this year, with the move to a fully localized league, there is still a chance that AHQ isn’t used to playing against world class teams. The LMS is very much AHQ – and then everyone else. While AHQ is unlikely to finish 4th, as this group is mainly a 3 horse race, there is the chance of a collapse which would leave them in 4th.

My prediction: 3rd

  • This is honestly a very close call. I think the LMS region is quite strong, and I was ready to write AHQ into the quarterfinals had they drawn even a slightly easier group. I think Westdoor’s limited playstyle, while strong and polished, can be punished. I also think that their winning bot and top lane that they leverage so well in the LMS won’t be there to leverage against the competition in this group. Because of that, I don’t see them advancing into the knockout stage. 3rd place.

Cloud 9

I was ready to write this team off completely 7 weeks into the summer split. I even made a video about it!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOeENYgS4E0

There are a number of things that contributed to C9’s turnaround at the end of the regular season and through the regional qualifier. Much of it, but not all of it, can be contributed to Hai. I won’t go over all the nitty gritty stats here, but if you’re looking for a more in-depth statistical look check out this great article over on oracleselixir: http://oracleselixir.com/2015/09/hai-rise-how-hais-return-changed-cloud9/

C9, backed by the leadership qualities of Hai, were able to regain their confidence and also create an unpredictable flair in their gameplay. Incarnati0n transformed into one of the best mid laners in NA and Sneaky returned to the form he had in spring where people were calling him the best ADC on the server.

C9 also developed one of the most unique champion selects of teams attending worlds. Lemon highly valued the Karma pick (although based on defeats, may not value it at worlds) and Hai was the only player in NA to win on Rengar, Shyvanna, or Kha’Zix in the summer season and beyond. I stand by my statement that the Cloud 9 of old is gone for good, but this new Cloud 9 isn’t bad either, and fully deserves their spot at worlds.

That doesn’t mean they don’t have a daunting task ahead of them. 7th place in the NA regular season to worlds is a Cinderella story in itself. To take that 1 step further and place ahead of AHQ (the best team from the LMS), Fnatic (the best team in EU LCS history), or iG (3rd seed from the LPL), or better yet, place them ahead of all of those teams, takes the story to the next level.

How they finish 1st

  • By embracing the “Nobody Believes in Us” theory. There is a common mantra in pro-sports where teams who are underdogs can leverage that energy and use it as a rallying cry. I’ve never seen it explained better than when Bill Simmons, a former ESPN writer wrote about it. Scroll down to “Revelation No.3” in this article: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100108

  • C9 is a talented team from top to bottom. Every player on this roster has been near the top of their respective role at some point during their careers. If they can leverage the power of the underdog, even though it’s an incredible longshot, they could win the group.

How they finish 2nd

  • By proving they are as good, or better, than the 2014 C9 team.

  • In 2014, C9 was grouped with Alliance (#1 team from EU) and Najin Shield (#3 team from KR) and managed to escape the group with the 2nd seed. This C9 team still consists of 4/5ths of that roster, and arguably has a better mechanical mid-laner in Incarnati0n. If C9 builds upon the momentum of their NA gauntlet run, and reaches back on their experience, they can finish 2nd in this group.

How they finish 3rd

  • If they play as well as they did in 2014, and it’s not enough.

  • This group doesn’t have much wiggle room between the 1st-3rd seed. If C9 is capable of finishing 2nd, it’s also not a far stretch for them to still perform well and finish 3rd. Generally they would fall to 3rd if Hai is exposed for his relative inexperience in the jungle, if Lemon and Sneaky don’t have it in them to bully lane in this group, or if Balls gets bullied in the top lane for his shrinking champion pool and poor recent performance.

How they finish 4th

  • If teams can expose their weaknesses displayed throughout the NA LCS split.

  • There were many holes in C9’s game that they patched up during their run in the gauntlet. The problem with that is past problems can come back with a vengeance against better competition. This group is really, really good, and can punish C9 for the slightest miss-step. Hai as a jungler sometimes feels like he makes random decisions. It often works for his benefit because the opponent is thinking “a pro jungler would never do this” and then Hai does it… and due to the element of surprise it works great. I can recall several ganks during the regional qualifier that followed this logic.

  • Additionally, Balls has mainly played Maokai and Rumble throughout the summer, and has shown moderate to low success on all other picks. Looking at his Korean solo Q account, where he has more games logged than any other EU or NA player, Balls is attempting to pick up Fiora (his most played), Gangplank, and Riven. Unfortunately he is still sitting in Diamond 2, so as of now his practice is not at the level he will face up against in this group vs. Huni, Zz1tai, and Ziv.

My prediction: 4th

  • While C9’s run through the NA regional qualifier was historic, it probably ends here. I think it is quite possible that C9 sneaks 1 or 2 games off of teams in this group, because they still have a high amount of talent and experience on this roster, and Hai’s shotcalling and savvy alone can manufacture victories. Even with the shotcalling and positive team atmosphere Hai has been able to nurture since his return, I still see C9 finishing 4th in this group.

That does it for Group B. Who do you think will take it?

Also, if you missed it, check out my Group A piece here:

http://boards.na.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/esports/NlpIcaTl-group-a-preview-and-predictions

130 Comments

Blue Socialist9/16/2015, 3:41:44 AM29 votes

I AM SENDING MY ENERGY OVER TO CLOUD9. FAITH IN CLG, ENERGY TO C9. (that said, I like the analysis. Well done.)

Deep Terror Nami9/16/2015, 3:27:05 AM17 votes

Hi again. I pick C9...because I like their logo.

Crossette9/16/2015, 12:13:57 PM8 votes

I'm going to believe in C9 here.

They could really be SNEAKY with their victories here... item 3153

Archon X9/16/2015, 3:24:02 AM7 votes

Fnatic going to win B, but irrelevant because Origen is winning Worlds.

RainRyder9/17/2015, 7:56:01 AM6 votes

HAI internet people!!! FANATIC IS GOING TO WIN NO MATTER WHAT 1st or 2nd! While normally it would appear AHQ and IG have it going on.... I'm gonna predict it right now... CLOUD 9 IS GONNA MAKE IT PAST GROUP STAGE!!

Don't Hate.... Appreciate!
TeamWork Makes the DreamWork!

...... write that down

TJfrost1009/16/2015, 3:32:29 AM6 votes

Jatt underestimates the inconsistency of iG... Fnatic will take first and AHQ will take 2nd place...

dorepro9/16/2015, 11:12:57 AM6 votes

i believe in hai's world domination plan :)))))

Earl Eulrich9/16/2015, 4:00:11 AM5 votes

yea well...for me it´s fnatic>IG>AHQ - but i wouldn´t be surprised if i´m proven wrong and AHQ or IG or even C9 win the group (ok, C9 would surprise me), it´s really a close call and rather unpredictable what those teams will come up with on an all new patch 1 month after their last appearance.

Chespin20139/16/2015, 4:41:17 AM5 votes

I always love your analysis Jatt great work as always!

Mr Fisti9/16/2015, 8:39:31 PM4 votes

I think Cloud9 have what it takes. They're coming together at the right time, Team Liquid dominated the majority of teams for the entirety of Summer, and Cloud9 made them look like basic bitches. The shotcalling is the thing that Cloud9 have always lacked when they do poorly, and I personally think Hai is among the best shotcallers in the world (see the Zed backdoor attempt vs Najin Shield- if he had waited a second longer, that would have been a free inhib). While Balls may be doing far poorer than before, I think team cohesion is more than strong enough to make up for it. While AHQ and IG are far more talented in terms of mechanics and player skill, they both have looked extremely shaky from time to time. Since Hai has returned, Cloud9 have been CONSISTENTLY on the up & up. I predict:

  1. Fnatic
  2. Cloud9
  3. iG
  4. AHQ

Yes, the weaknesses Jatt outlines in Cloud9 do exist, and are problems. Hai's mechanics and Balls' lack of domination in the top lane will be their inhibiting factors, BUT, in the second game vs any of these teams, I think C9 will triumph, due to analysis. Even mid-series, the changes that C9 made with their analysis were always brilliant adaptations. Keep in mind, C9 played 2 games vs Gravity on Amumu. Why, after the first loss, would they stick with the pick? Because they KNEW they had the skill and teamwork necessary to take the reverse sweep if necessary. This Cloud9 has no aversion to taking risks, and it's been rewarded. Hai's first LCS game on Ekko? DOMINATING performance. He ended with a 6/2/7 kda, in his FIRST performance on the champ, vs a highly more skilled jungler in IWillDominate. The mistake many in this group will make is underestimating Hai and his shotcalling ability. Hai's impact as a shotcaller will be the reason Cloud9 finishes second. Without the voice of reason, without Hai, Cloud9 had a 3-7 record. That's below a .3333 win ratio. Once Hai returned, while it took some time to get used to having a new (old) player back on the team, the gauntlet run was a true testament of how strong Cloud9 is when they trust Hai's leadership. My best guess is C9 will end with a 3/3 or 4/2 record, 3/3 by taking one game off of Fnatic, but losing one to each team, and 4/2 by beating AHQ both times.

The Reasons Why Fnatic Finishes First:

Teamwork isn't all that matters, here. Yes, it is massively important, and Cloud9 have what it takes on a teamplay level to, at best, take 1 game off of Fnatic, but Fnatic's analysis is as good as, if not better, than C9's. Keep in mind, every team in the EU LCS was by far inferior, in Best-Of-1's, to Fnatic. Origen did as well as they did vs Fnatic because of mid-series adaptation, while during the season, Fnatic had far and away the best lategame team cohesion of any team. Their teamwork was the reason, as well as individual skill level being higher than their subsequent counterparts, that they were a dominating team, and why I believe they will continue to dominate. While Cloud9's team cohesion can't be understated, Fnatic's is still superior, and they have better individual players in each role, with the exception of Febiven vs Incarnation, which can swing either way. In addition, I think Huni's impact on Fnatic can't be understated. Having such a solid top lane player can't be understated either, especially due to the fact that even in games where Huni loses lane (rare, but possible), he still has an INCREDIBLE impact on the game and on teamfights. Given a lane vs Balls, where he should be able to dominate the matchup unless Balls has a surprise pick, the matchup will swing in Huni's favor 9 times out of 10. While I do think Cloud9 will be able to take 1 game off of Fnatic, I don't think Fnatic will drop many more games than that. I predict a 5/1 record for Fnatic out of group stage.

Why Cloud9 and Fnatic are better than iG and AHQ:

On each team, while there are good players in each role, there is one problematic thing that AHQ and IG will face- there are also losing matchups. For AHQ, it's Westdoor and his tendency to roam. While an incredibly mechanically skilled midlaner, Westdoor roams too frequently, and as such, has a lower CS differential on average, so facing Febiven or Incarnation, they will surpass him by far on CS. If Westdoor chooses to roam to bot lane, which should THEORETICALLY already be winning (+11.6 CSD for AN), he will give away far too much to Febiven and Incarnation, much less the potential that Hai's unpredictability may allow him to rotate bot and countergank as Westdoor goes to roam.

For iG, against Cloud9, their weakness is the botlane. If Kid and Kitties are a comparison to Apollo and Adrian, then their matchup vs Sneaky and LemonNation will wind up like Apollo and Adrian did. That's not to say that Apollo and Adrian did poorly against Sneaky in lane phase, but Sneaky had the ability to not get pummeled thoroughly enough to come back and carry (Vayne vs TIP). If Sneaky goes even and is on ANY late-game scaling ADC, he will become a force to be reckoned with, and even if Hai gets manhandled, my bets are that Febiven and Incarnation should do decently vs Rookie in lane. How Rekkles will do is beyond me. While in previous seasons, Rekkles has shown to be one of the best ADC'S in the world, this season, Fnatic's comps haven't been as focused on him, but Yellowstar being the shotcaller and being in the botlane, my bet is that Fnatic will handle Kid and Kitties as well as Cloud9 will.

With 1 lane dominating, the rest of C9 has SHOWN that they have the potential to step up and assist that lane, and Hai KNOWS these matchups as well as I or anyone else does. If Hai picks up on the matchups ahead of time, and builds a comp to assist the winning lane, they can use their better team cohesion to find a victory.

For Fnatic, their team cohesion is, in my opinion, the best in the group by far. Having the ability to bounce back from so many poor early games during the EU LCS requires incredible mental fortitude, not to mention bouncing back, if barely, from losing a 21-0 winstreak. In the lategame, Fnatic should beat iG and AHQ from having more favorable matchups than C9 has versus either of these teams, and win by having the greatest teamwork within the group.

Anyways, that's my analysis. Thanks for reading =)

Zhugan9/16/2015, 6:01:45 AM3 votes

The wildly inconsistent IG takes down the wildly consistent Fnatic? I think not. Fnatic will win, IG/AHQ fighting for second, C9 (very sadly) a distant 4th.

Sinothor9/16/2015, 7:35:44 AM3 votes

hard group for C9

Ace Yue9/16/2015, 5:17:16 AM3 votes

Look at those Fnatic and C9 fan boys. Prob that is the reason why EU and NA always behind Korea and China

DeathToHeretics9/16/2015, 5:34:09 AM3 votes

Fantastic post, Jatt! I was really hoping you'd make another one after the Group A analysis. I do want to ask, as an analyst do you believe AHQ's crazy chaos style of playing will be a benefit to them in groups and possibly beyond? Or will: -FNC's ability to adapt, -C9's even crazier "Did-Hai-really-just-pick-Amumu-omg-what-is-going-on" playstyle, and -IG's pure power be enough to overcome and take them down? AHQ is really throwing my Pick 'Em for a loop.

Also, If Hai doesn't fix up his jungle decisions, I fully expect KaKAO to curbstomp him in the jungle. Dragon/Bug/Mummy-child regardless.

daniellizard9/16/2015, 3:50:37 AM3 votes

Oh guys, 33 votes for FNC win over 30 for C9 and 14 for IG? Man you are optimistic! It will be another wonder if C9 get up to second! Even if you borrow some energy from the sun or the universe for a spirit bomb, they wont be first!

Aries9/16/2015, 5:34:50 PM3 votes

I definitely thought over about the 1-3 slots dilemma for GroupB for a while but after I factored in the home crowd advantage for Fnatic, I decided to place iG and Fnatic as top 2, and the rest was predicted in the following, considering that iG and Fnatic goes toe-to-toe at 1-1:

  • Fnatic vs C9 (2-0)
  • Fnatic vs AHQ (1-1)
  • iG vs C9 (2-0)
  • iG vs AHQ (2-0)
  • AHQ vs C9 (1-1)

Factoring MSI and their following dominances in respective regions afterwards, AHQ and Fnatic is a pretty even matchup. The biggest factor for iG not dominating this group is not being able to adapt to the European environment. I'm not really an IG fan but the current patch/meta does give them significant advantages, especially putting more weights on top lane, and Z1tai's ability to adapt certainly plays in IG's favor. IG, in a sense, is very similar to Fnatic, but I'd give bot lane advantages to Fnatic while giving IG the jungle advantages. I do believe AHQ is a strong team but believe they will fall victim to 5.18.

I predict C9's win against AHQ on the second game mostly due to AHQ's fall in morale in losing to other teams. With game results from above factors

  • IG - 6
  • Fnatic - 4
  • AHQ - 2
  • Cloud9 - 1

One of the tricks to pick'em is that since you only need to get the order right, you can play around with different scenarios, factor in Bayes' theorem and your predictions can improve significantly, or be very wrong because your overconfidence in certain areas. Just my two cents, and great review Jatt.

Linna Excel9/16/2015, 5:14:05 AM2 votes

I really have no idea who wins this group. I think of all the groups, this one is probably the one with no clear favorite or two. I'd like to right off C9 for instance, but what they did in the gauntlet (coming together at the right time) and the "no one believes in us" factor is pretty big. I honestly think they'll place second, even if that's probably not happening.

Right now my pick'ems are:

  1. Fanatic
  2. C9
  3. AHQ
  4. iG

I've got no confidence in those picks and no idea where this group is going.

Vault Breaker9/16/2015, 5:07:39 PM2 votes

Hey Jatt -

Where you used the phrase "core tenant" here and on broadcast before, I think the phrase you're looking for is "core tenet".

Excellent work otherwise.

RottedApples9/16/2015, 5:20:16 PM2 votes

omg so many words.

I'd like to see C9 win just because I like C9 but I doubt they will. I hope they at least get 2nd to get out of group stage, and I hope Fnatic comes up first since they did so well in their region. I just don't know much about the other regions in general though.

obligatory "stfu jatt" meme

Rexranger19/16/2015, 4:06:51 AM2 votes

Great analysis as usual Jatt, always feel i learn something about the game or teams in your posts and your casting, keep up the good work. Also gonna say FNC has got this but i think C9 can dark horse it, they came through in the gauntlet, and hai needs to finish his 6 step plan.

Trauts Sudaru9/16/2015, 5:57:22 AM2 votes

I think I'll just stick to jatt's advice for groups because I don't know the teams outside of NA, EU, KR, and the top to LPL that well, I feel this way I'm guaranteed at least the wizard poro icon, because I doubt I'll 100% this dumb thing

Zeenic9/16/2015, 4:44:59 AM2 votes

Keep them coming Jatt, thanks for doing this from those of us who don't watch the foreign regions. Insightful analysis and opinions are always appreciated.