Honestly, I've heard from some pros that League of Legends is going to become the newest sport and be here for hundreds of years. Then I heard doublelift say that League won't be around for 100 years.
Honest thoughts, what is the longevity of League Esports?
Hard to say. I'd say LOL dies sooner rather than later in a few scenarios:
If those things don't happen, it could last for awhile, but it's still hard to say. I'd expect that in 5 years from now, the user-base will be cut in half if LOL follows the MMO trend (it doesn't have to though) but even at 50 million players it'll survive.
I feel like unless Riot makes some serious changes to how they approach new seasons and distribute information League won't make it to the 25 year mark.
You can see it right now. What's the best advice you can tell someone who hasn't played since Season 3? You tell them to treat it like a brand new game, despite them only taking a 3-4 year break. Between all of the Jungle changes, the class reworks, the champion reworks, the new champions, it's easier to tell them to assume everything changed than to tell them key things they need to know.
Lets assume that our player who disappeared in Season 3 and came back wanted to watch the World Finals. What do they have to catch up on?
(possibly 
depending on when you left)
no longer heals everyone, but gives a movement speed boostNote this isn't an exhaustive list, this is only what showed up in the Best of 5 that ended Worlds (limited by my own knowledge of what's changed). There's nothing about meta in there, and honestly, it's a bit overwhelming.
#You might as well be watching a different MOBA, and that's the problem.
When the only thing that stays the same is that there are champions, they attack towers, they attack inhibitors, and they destroy the base to win the game, then it makes no difference if you're watching the League of Legends Worlds Finals, DOTA, Paragon, Heros of the Storm, Vain Glory, or any other MOBA for that matter. You'd have to re-figure out enough that you might as well be watching a MOBA you've never played before.
TL;DR: League, particularly competitive League, only appeals to those who are actively keeping up with it. Too many things that effect decision making and team fights change for it to be any more interesting than any other MOBA for those who aren't keeping up. As such, League's eSports potential audience is capped at whatever its current player base is at the time.
MOBA games have transformed online gaming and esports in particular. LoL as a title is very much like how MLB is to other sports. It won't be the only title, but it will be a mainstay for a very long time. If you're worried about your monetary investment into the game not being worth anything in a few years, don't, this game is going to be thriving for a very long time. I doubt they'll even make many updates to graphics and such, and if they do it will be for beautification more than anything. This is a sport now, and those kind of things don't simply drift off into the night.
I see league and esports both currently being on an upward trajectory. The latter will probably overtake traditional sport in 30 years or so. League could be the prime esport then too, if Riot makes smart choices. So far for every good choice they've made, I can also list a really poor choice. But at the moment, I'd say they're definitely still in the pole position in terms of viewership and standard of broadcast. Sure, DotA does it really good too, but their game just isn't as accessible to casual esport fans.
I imagine it will last several more years. Riot could develop a new game by then that would be even better. Esports as a whole should grow and last a much longer time and overtake traditional sports at some point. However, I think it will more or less fuse into less distinct "sports" and "esports". Imagine an augmented reality football or basketball. A virtual baseball of a sort.
I also expect transhumanism to seep in, too. Imagine a golfer who has a robotic right arm that they elected to have amputated to drive the ball 1000s of yards. Or boxers who have been genetically altered to have 4 arms instead of 2. This is the future of traditional sports in my opinion. The possibilities are endless!
i think its possible for the game to last. 100 years. but unlikely. imma go with 25 years. eventually with enough patches the game will eventually look nothing like today's league while it might have the same name on it doesn't mean its not a new game
The problem with League as a sport is that unlike other sports, it has competition.
In some ways every other sport competes with one another, but there's no 'Neo-Baseball' sport coming out anytime soon. Baseball is baseball and it will be popular as long as people want to watch it because there's not another baseball (or football or whatever).
League lives in a market where there are new exciting things everyday, and they have to strive to remain relevant and exciting--a pressure that traditional sports do not have.
With that said League does already have a very good position within the e-sports scene, and thanks to this and the effect that popularity has on things generally staying popular, I think it has a good long life ahead of it. Just don't be surprised if it's not around in 20 years or so.
Dude people are still playing competitive Super Street Fighter 2: Turbo. That game is 22 years old and has a player base of maybe a few thousand.
LoL has millions of players. It probably won't be the #1 Esport for forever, you can say its already lost that spot in some people's opinions, but I have a hard time imagining a world in which a game that is this popular will die completely.
If they want League to get REALLY big (and endure) then they need to either work out the whole College League or else develop other "local" divisions. If the only teams of note are all in CA, then the only way (outside of Worlds) to see it live as in CA. And as big as CA is, if you need to go there to see pro matches live, then that will stunt growth. You need to get people to really support "their team", rather than just (at best) "their player(s)". Right now when players "retire" you always risk losing that player's fans. If you tie the fans to the TEAM then the support will endure.
But right now, the only real differentiator is team logos and player personalities. If Sneaky quit league and spent all his time streaming Overwatch (or something) how many fans would League lose? Not saying it's a HUGE number, but I'd bet its a lot more (as a percentage) than the NFL lost when Peyton Manning retired.
I am one of the few ones who actually feels that League has peaked or nearly peaked.
It's because whenever i watch streamers or e-sports events, then the number of viewers seems to be roughly the same as it was three years ago. It just feels like league isn't growing anymore.
I don't think it's going away immediately. But I doubt it lasts 25 years in its current form.
I dont know, if they manage to transfer league into new technologies, and by that I mostly mean to transfer it into visual reality I can see league lasting really really long, without it perhaps it will last 10 more years maybe 15 max.
It's unlikely it will last around 100 years, however video games as a whole haven't been around that long so it's really an estimate. Games such as chess, however, have lasted for centuries and still people do not get tired of it. League of Legends and Chess are somewhat similar but also different.
League of Legends is an ever-changing game, which means that over time, it will eventually shift into a completely different game (reworks, additions and removals, etc.) with a constant genre. Chess, however, has always been and always will be the same game, yet somehow it still attracts a relatively large audience.
Chess is a game that also does not require any cognitive skills or fine-motor control of the muscles - you only have to move glorified wooden blocks over other wooden blocks, essentially. League of Legends is a much more complex game so you really have to be trained in a lot of different aspects of it (mechanical, awareness, etc.) to be remotely decent at it. This difference in playstyle ultimately decides what will succeed - with Chess having a low-complexity playstyle, it becomes easier for young children to be introduced to early, whereas in League of Legends, you have to be constantly aware to have fun.
You also have to keep in mind that over the course of 100 years, a company can switch CEO's several times due to retirement or death, and with some companies that completely changes the major product the company is selling. Take for example, Apple, the company that invented the Macintosh, the iPod, MacBook, etc.. After Steve Jobs passed, many argue that the quality of Apple products went downhill quickly. His passing meant that a new CEO had to take over, who would make decisions for the company and the likes, which changed the way the products were sold or manufactured.
While they both train the player in one way or another, Chess is simply a much better gateway into gaming than League of Legends. So will League last over 100 years? It's possible, but with how much money Marc Merill is making he may retire at one point or another, and if he doesn't, he'll spend his last days working. Either way, there will be a new CEO to take over and make decisions for the future of the company and League of Legends.
Sorry it had to end on a sour note, but that's just the way it is, and unfortunately we have to deal with it.
It can last as long as the game does not get too big. I'm afraid that the champ roster will get way too massive where they have to limit the champs available to people. Almost like unlocking a champ. I feel like as long as they keep the current players happy through reworks and new champs as well as catering a bit to new players, the game can last as long as it needs to.
idk I was thinking maybe like 5-10 more years...... I doubt it will last close to 100, although that would be pretty cool.
