The Case for Number 1
Riot·5/15/2014, 10:51:01 PM·0 votes·2,162 views
Being the first pick can be intimidating because you have the entire player pool to draft from. Do you take the top scorer or do you deny the top player for a particular position from the rest of your league? We've built a few profiles to help you decide who your number 1 draft pick should be.
The average points scored for Top laners on winning teams in spring was 20.6. While Balls was only 1 point above this average in his wins, it certainly helped that Cloud 9 won 24 games. This would only land Balls in the "good" pick category; here is why he'll be huge in the coming months: The Top lane meta is shifting. Shifting directly into Balls' strength area, AP bruisers that deal a boatload of damage and can carry the game from Top lane. Balls won't be held back by the Shyvanna/Mundo/Renekton trifecta, he's coming out swinging with Ryze and Rumble.
In early 2014, the Top lane metagame was built around super tanks which Balls was good at, but nowhere close to his forte. Recently, in the Spring playoffs, Ryze was picked or banned in 33% of all games for North America and 75% of all games in Europe (after being picked only 18 times the whole split in both NA/EU). Once Ryze hits the scene, it’s only a matter of time until Rumble (Balls averaged 27.2 pts/game on Rumble in Spring) comes out as a new force to be reckoned with. The rise of the Ryze should usher in a new era where Balls will reign supreme; and Aphromoo, in an interview with Ongamers, commented about Ryze stating that, although Mundo is a sponge and Shyvana dives the backline, Ryze just straight up destroys them at their own game. Projecting is a key point to drafting, and I predict that the meta will shift right into a ton of points for taking Balls at No. 1.
Written by Andrew "Glyceroll" Whitmore
For this, the answer is simple: Søren "Bjergsen" Bjerg.
As the anchor for TSM, Bjergsen was dominant during the NA Spring Split. His impact in every game further established why he's considered the best Mid laner in NA and one of the best in the world.
He was second overall, in gold per minute during the regular split with a 413 average, first in average gold per game with 15K (which include key fantasy metrics like assists and farm), and led the entire Spring Split with 155 kills. In addition to his strong surface statistics, he was in the top-five KDA with a 6.3 average per game. The reasoning behind his effective statistics is Bjerg's safe, yet dominant play; he averaged just 1.9 deaths/game in comparison to the 2.7 average for all Mid laners. Simply put, he was the overall best player in the spring split regular season.
He was awarded MVP and "All League First Team" honors: with a whopping 37 percent, Bjergsen was the top pick amongst LoL fans, peers, and analysts.
All in all, Bjergsen ranked off-the-charts in every statistic possible. He was the shot-caller for TSM and lived up to all the hype before the split began. If there was ever a go-to No. 1 pick, it would be Bjergsen.
Written by Tim Lee
When picking up a Support, one must remember that he comes "packaged" with an AD Carry. Even if they aren't on the same fantasy team, they're still on the same LCS team, and each player's individual performance will affect the other's. In Zachary "Sneaky" Scuderi, LemonNation has a partner who holds the highest KDA across NA and EU. More importantly, these two have laned together for a full year, pushing the duo into the "veteran" status as far as lane partners go in the constantly changing environment.
LemonNation also took well to the meta-shift that occurred to the Support role in the 2014 season. With new items like Spellthief's Edge and Ancient Coin (along with some other changes), utility-mages (Morgana and Karma come to mind) have become the go-to champions more and more frequently. And those utility-mages work; Cloud 9 won their last 13 games of the spring split, during which LemonNation played a mage Support in all but two matches (in which he instead opted for Thresh). With all these reasons, LemonNation is primed to lead all Supports once again (perhaps in dominating fashion), and could well provide the most value as the top pick of your draft.
Written by Michael "HHGilean" Mooridian
What does someone want from a Jungler in terms of fantasy points? Ideally, the Jungler should be able to take advantage of every type of scoring from kills to farming camps. Meteos has always been one of the heavier farmers in the game, but he doesn't skimp on kill participation either (No. 1 in kills for all Junglers, and in the top half for CS numbers). Upcoming changes to trinket wards will weaken the 4v0 fast push strategy that has been so common in recent weeks since you can now place a ward 30 seconds into the game, preventing early jungle invades. One of the understated points of the 4v0 is that it counters farm-based Junglers by forcing them into lanes. But now, the cooldown reduction on trinkets will allow Meteos to farm or convert his infamous timely ganks, into kills. That freedom will translate into a hefty chunk of fantasy points for owners of the Cloud 9 mainstay.
One last big reason to consider Meteos as the first overall pick is the dominance of Cloud 9 through the past two splits. With winning players scoring 12.9 more points than losing players on average, Meteos is poised for another great run in summer. Also, given the uncertainty that has arisen due to roster changes throughout the NA LCS, it's hard to believe that the C9 fantasy hype train will be derailed going into drafts.
Written by Thomas Watts
When Fnatic was slumping hard, they made even the bottom teams look good, but Rekkles was their one gleaming datapoint. In fact, he's always been the strongest point in any team he’s been on, whether in the Challenger circuit or LCS proper. In a scene noted more for the commonality of its upsets and the inconsistencies of even its highest-caliber teams, he has been one of the most consistent performers in all of Europe (4th overall ADC, 1st overall EU ADC, 4th overall ADC in losses, 1st overall EU ADC in losses).
How does this stack against the other draft options? While neither Cloud 9 or TSM's had as hard a slump as Fnatic, their respective bot lanes have shown worrying breaking points in prior games. And in both cases, the reverts to trinkets and early Dragon gold put more emphasis on bot lane dueling over early pushes, stressing consistent strength of laning performance.
In Cloud 9's case, Sneaky's statistics are at least partially padded by the fact that the spotlight is rarely upon him. While Hai and Meteos initiate team-fights, Sneaky's usually left to clean up in their wake: a strategy that's served the team well. When games start going south for C9, Sneaky scores just 9.9 pts/loss; meanwhile, Rekkles maintains a respectable 12.5 pts/loss average.
Wildturtle, on the other hand, is no stranger to the spotlight, but that hasn't always served him well. When TSM slumps, Wildturtle has shown a tendency to ambitiously overreach. And there should be concern surrounding his newest Support, Gleebglarbu, who has yet to be truly tested by the growing competition in NA
In contrast, you always know what to expect from Rekkles and Yellowstar: a high-octane, highly consistent powerhouse serving as Fnatic's unshakeable foundation. Even when the rest of their team's outplayed, Rekkles has consistently proven himself as the very opposite of a reckless bet.
Written by James "Obscurica" Chen
Here is why Sneaky is a no-brainer first pick for your fantasy lineup: the AD Carry position typically generates the most points in fantasy LCS, and Sneaky was the overall third-ranked fantasy pts/game-producer from the spring split (and 2nd for AD Carries).
The other two are on TSM, who just had TheOddOne retire and Xpecial depart for Curse. While players like Bjergsen and the WildTurtle are justly prized as fantasy prospects, these are deeply worrying signs if you're a fantasy owner. TSM just had a great season after more than a year of diminishing returns, and now they've parted with one of the best Supports in the game and lost one of their leaders.
Meanwhile, Cloud 9 is the same as ever: terrific, united, and likely to dominate North America yet again. And Sneaky is a major part of that attack. He's basically a fantasy-scoring machine down in the bottom lane, routinely breaking into the double-digits on kills and assists (10/1/15 scoreline against Dignitas). He also racks up a respectable number of multi-kills.
He may not take your breath away as often as Bjergsen or Rekkles do, but he also doesn't have bad games. Typically, he's giving up one or two deaths in a game, and he's had a shocking number of games where he never actually gets killed (went deathless in nearly 25% of his games). From a fantasy standpoint, Sneaky is pure profit.
We could see a repeat of last summer's 25-3 run with the top NA teams left in uncertainty. That makes the forecast pretty clear: Sneaky's fantasy owners need to prepare for a torrential downpour of fantasy points.
Written by Rob Zacny
Balls
Drafting isn't always about the statistics. League of Legends is as turbulent as ever with constant meta-shifts and patches causing teams to rise and fall like clockwork, such as SKT K dropping into NLB in Korea and SK Gaming going from last place to first place in EU LCS. Projecting and inferring what the future holds is huge when it comes to drafting and that's why Balls is a great first pick for a draft.
The average points scored for Top laners on winning teams in spring was 20.6. While Balls was only 1 point above this average in his wins, it certainly helped that Cloud 9 won 24 games. This would only land Balls in the "good" pick category; here is why he'll be huge in the coming months: The Top lane meta is shifting. Shifting directly into Balls' strength area, AP bruisers that deal a boatload of damage and can carry the game from Top lane. Balls won't be held back by the Shyvanna/Mundo/Renekton trifecta, he's coming out swinging with Ryze and Rumble.
In early 2014, the Top lane metagame was built around super tanks which Balls was good at, but nowhere close to his forte. Recently, in the Spring playoffs, Ryze was picked or banned in 33% of all games for North America and 75% of all games in Europe (after being picked only 18 times the whole split in both NA/EU). Once Ryze hits the scene, it’s only a matter of time until Rumble (Balls averaged 27.2 pts/game on Rumble in Spring) comes out as a new force to be reckoned with. The rise of the Ryze should usher in a new era where Balls will reign supreme; and Aphromoo, in an interview with Ongamers, commented about Ryze stating that, although Mundo is a sponge and Shyvana dives the backline, Ryze just straight up destroys them at their own game. Projecting is a key point to drafting, and I predict that the meta will shift right into a ton of points for taking Balls at No. 1.
Written by Andrew "Glyceroll" Whitmore
Bjergsen
The number one pick. It should be the safest and easiest pick: a player, regardless of position, who will put up consistent and reliable numbers in every match.
For this, the answer is simple: Søren "Bjergsen" Bjerg.
As the anchor for TSM, Bjergsen was dominant during the NA Spring Split. His impact in every game further established why he's considered the best Mid laner in NA and one of the best in the world.
He was second overall, in gold per minute during the regular split with a 413 average, first in average gold per game with 15K (which include key fantasy metrics like assists and farm), and led the entire Spring Split with 155 kills. In addition to his strong surface statistics, he was in the top-five KDA with a 6.3 average per game. The reasoning behind his effective statistics is Bjerg's safe, yet dominant play; he averaged just 1.9 deaths/game in comparison to the 2.7 average for all Mid laners. Simply put, he was the overall best player in the spring split regular season.
He was awarded MVP and "All League First Team" honors: with a whopping 37 percent, Bjergsen was the top pick amongst LoL fans, peers, and analysts.
All in all, Bjergsen ranked off-the-charts in every statistic possible. He was the shot-caller for TSM and lived up to all the hype before the split began. If there was ever a go-to No. 1 pick, it would be Bjergsen.
Written by Tim Lee
LemonNation
In the 2014 spring split, LemonNation had the most assists among Supports in both the EU and NA LCS. Furthermore, the one Support who could outshine him, Alex "Xpecial" Chu, may initially struggle adjusting to his new team in Curse. Of course, many people still want some reasons other than an impressive stat-line to pick up a player, so let's lay a few of those reasons out.
When picking up a Support, one must remember that he comes "packaged" with an AD Carry. Even if they aren't on the same fantasy team, they're still on the same LCS team, and each player's individual performance will affect the other's. In Zachary "Sneaky" Scuderi, LemonNation has a partner who holds the highest KDA across NA and EU. More importantly, these two have laned together for a full year, pushing the duo into the "veteran" status as far as lane partners go in the constantly changing environment.
LemonNation also took well to the meta-shift that occurred to the Support role in the 2014 season. With new items like Spellthief's Edge and Ancient Coin (along with some other changes), utility-mages (Morgana and Karma come to mind) have become the go-to champions more and more frequently. And those utility-mages work; Cloud 9 won their last 13 games of the spring split, during which LemonNation played a mage Support in all but two matches (in which he instead opted for Thresh). With all these reasons, LemonNation is primed to lead all Supports once again (perhaps in dominating fashion), and could well provide the most value as the top pick of your draft.
Written by Michael "HHGilean" Mooridian
Meteos
The main draw for Cloud 9's Meteos being first overall pick is point differential between the No. 1 and No. 2 Junglers from the Spring Split. Meteos averaged 22.5 points per game for the split followed up by Team SoloMid's TheOddOne at 20.2. TheOddOne's retirement means that the gap from 1st to 2nd for the Summer Split is actually slightly larger. Counter Logic Gaming's Dexter was third at 18.4. The drop from first to second is the largest gap for any position which increases Meteos's value tremendously.
What does someone want from a Jungler in terms of fantasy points? Ideally, the Jungler should be able to take advantage of every type of scoring from kills to farming camps. Meteos has always been one of the heavier farmers in the game, but he doesn't skimp on kill participation either (No. 1 in kills for all Junglers, and in the top half for CS numbers). Upcoming changes to trinket wards will weaken the 4v0 fast push strategy that has been so common in recent weeks since you can now place a ward 30 seconds into the game, preventing early jungle invades. One of the understated points of the 4v0 is that it counters farm-based Junglers by forcing them into lanes. But now, the cooldown reduction on trinkets will allow Meteos to farm or convert his infamous timely ganks, into kills. That freedom will translate into a hefty chunk of fantasy points for owners of the Cloud 9 mainstay.
One last big reason to consider Meteos as the first overall pick is the dominance of Cloud 9 through the past two splits. With winning players scoring 12.9 more points than losing players on average, Meteos is poised for another great run in summer. Also, given the uncertainty that has arisen due to roster changes throughout the NA LCS, it's hard to believe that the C9 fantasy hype train will be derailed going into drafts.
Written by Thomas Watts
Rekkles
When analyzing a team's performance, KDA alone doesn't tell the whole story. The adversity test is a necessary consideration – and Rekkles knows adversity.
When Fnatic was slumping hard, they made even the bottom teams look good, but Rekkles was their one gleaming datapoint. In fact, he's always been the strongest point in any team he’s been on, whether in the Challenger circuit or LCS proper. In a scene noted more for the commonality of its upsets and the inconsistencies of even its highest-caliber teams, he has been one of the most consistent performers in all of Europe (4th overall ADC, 1st overall EU ADC, 4th overall ADC in losses, 1st overall EU ADC in losses).
How does this stack against the other draft options? While neither Cloud 9 or TSM's had as hard a slump as Fnatic, their respective bot lanes have shown worrying breaking points in prior games. And in both cases, the reverts to trinkets and early Dragon gold put more emphasis on bot lane dueling over early pushes, stressing consistent strength of laning performance.
In Cloud 9's case, Sneaky's statistics are at least partially padded by the fact that the spotlight is rarely upon him. While Hai and Meteos initiate team-fights, Sneaky's usually left to clean up in their wake: a strategy that's served the team well. When games start going south for C9, Sneaky scores just 9.9 pts/loss; meanwhile, Rekkles maintains a respectable 12.5 pts/loss average.
Wildturtle, on the other hand, is no stranger to the spotlight, but that hasn't always served him well. When TSM slumps, Wildturtle has shown a tendency to ambitiously overreach. And there should be concern surrounding his newest Support, Gleebglarbu, who has yet to be truly tested by the growing competition in NA
In contrast, you always know what to expect from Rekkles and Yellowstar: a high-octane, highly consistent powerhouse serving as Fnatic's unshakeable foundation. Even when the rest of their team's outplayed, Rekkles has consistently proven himself as the very opposite of a reckless bet.
Written by James "Obscurica" Chen
Sneaky
It's not just that Sneaky is an excellent marksman player in his own right that makes him the clear-cut No. 1 overall draft pick. It's that he's playing on the most stable, most successful team in the LCS. And stability is going up in value right now (13.7 point differential between winning and losing ADCs), as Cloud 9 are one of the few top teams whose fantasy prospects haven't been cast into doubt by off-season changes.
Here is why Sneaky is a no-brainer first pick for your fantasy lineup: the AD Carry position typically generates the most points in fantasy LCS, and Sneaky was the overall third-ranked fantasy pts/game-producer from the spring split (and 2nd for AD Carries).
The other two are on TSM, who just had TheOddOne retire and Xpecial depart for Curse. While players like Bjergsen and the WildTurtle are justly prized as fantasy prospects, these are deeply worrying signs if you're a fantasy owner. TSM just had a great season after more than a year of diminishing returns, and now they've parted with one of the best Supports in the game and lost one of their leaders.
Meanwhile, Cloud 9 is the same as ever: terrific, united, and likely to dominate North America yet again. And Sneaky is a major part of that attack. He's basically a fantasy-scoring machine down in the bottom lane, routinely breaking into the double-digits on kills and assists (10/1/15 scoreline against Dignitas). He also racks up a respectable number of multi-kills.
He may not take your breath away as often as Bjergsen or Rekkles do, but he also doesn't have bad games. Typically, he's giving up one or two deaths in a game, and he's had a shocking number of games where he never actually gets killed (went deathless in nearly 25% of his games). From a fantasy standpoint, Sneaky is pure profit.
We could see a repeat of last summer's 25-3 run with the top NA teams left in uncertainty. That makes the forecast pretty clear: Sneaky's fantasy owners need to prepare for a torrential downpour of fantasy points.
Written by Rob Zacny
