NA and EU Bracketology

The 2014 World Finals are fast approaching! Before the finals commence, the regions have to duke it out in a bloodbath for the three world final spots at PAX Prime for North America and Gamescom for Europe. We’ve done the stats, crunched the numbers, and churned out what we believe will be the most likely scenarios you will see heading into the NA/EU Regional Playoffs!

Playoffs TL;DR

• The top six teams in each region will advance to the playoffs.
• The top two teams at the end of the split receive a bye into the semifinals.
• The three finalists (1st-3rd) at the regional playoffs will qualify for Worlds!
• All matches in the playoffs will be best-of-five.
• The bottom two teams (7th & 8th) along with 6th place from regionals will be relegated to the 2015 Spring Promotion Tournament.
• Tie breakers will be decided first by head-to-head results and second by a single best of one tiebreaker.
• Tie breaker side choice will be decided by coin toss.

North America’s Shining Stars North America has, for lack of a better comparison, become the new version of Europe from way back in the Spring Split. There’s a dead heat for the top two slots between LMQ, Cloud 9, TSM, and CLG. With the highest win rate being a measly 67% by LMQ, it’s easy to see exactly how we’ve ended up with such a heavily top weighted ranking. CLG is pretty much out of the contention for the top two spots. CLG will need the stars to align that will unleash the titan in Doublelift to secure all four wins as well as pray that LMQ, TSM, and Cloud 9 all have a miserable week for them to obtain one of the byes. LMQ has a pretty tough week ahead of them as well, but considering they haven’t dropped a single game to TSM, they will very likely end the week 2-2 at the worst. If trends hold true, LMQ should hold one of the top spots with TSM and Cloud 9 duking it out for the other. Both TSM and C9 have made exemplary comebacks from their inconsistent starts to the season, especially Cloud 9 who dropped several games to the bottom tier teams early on. Not to be outdone with issues, TSM had a roster shake up with the addition of Lustboy as starting support. Both teams look incredibly strong and at the top of their game, so it’s really difficult to give an edge to one team or the other.

The Back of the Pack

Everyone loves an underdog, but for some of these teams there’s no significant chance that they’ll edge out of the bottom two standings. Both CompLexity and Evil Genuises have an insanely tough week ahead of them. CoL has to face off against two of the top teams while EG has to face off against three of the top teams. Both of these teams need to pick up at least three wins while hoping that Dignitas and Curse both have an absolutely abysmal week. Still, it’s looking incredibly likely that Curse and Dignitas will make it through the to the top six, while coL and EG have to pull off a miracle to escape.

What does it all mean for PAX?

Essentially, we’re looking at the two teams receiving a bye into the semifinals being LMQ and either TSM or Cloud 9 (depending on who shows up on game day). While those two are cozy up at the top with their semifinal bye, the other four will have to fight to survive in the best of five quarterfinals to represent NA at World Finals! Deep down at the bottom of the standings sit both Evil Geniuses and CompLexity in the relegation pile, barring an absolutely insane comeback that is about as likely as Bubbadub shaving his moustache.

Europe’s Royalty

Unlike North America this split, Europe actually has a decent disparity between all tiers of their standings. Alliance has for sure secured their spot in the top two with a 75% win rate and a 3-0 record against SHC so far (who are the only ones who could have possibly knocked them out of the top two with a tie breaker). After Alliance, it’s a close call between SK, Millenium, SHC, and Fnatic for the final spot. It’s very likely that Fnatic will claim this spot, as the only negative head-to-head they have are against Alliance and SHC at 1-3 and 1-2 respectively.

Europe’s Weak Links

What a roller coaster it’s been for Gambit Gaming. Unable to find roster stability at all this split has taken it’s toll on the once gleaming team dropping their win rate from 50% in the spring split down to a pitiful 21% in just 11 short weeks. Unfortunately, Gambit has fallen into relegation territory and won’t be able to make it out no matter how hard they try. Joining them at the bottom we have Copenhagen Wolves, who also have the slightest glimmer of hope to escape the hole that is the bottom two. They’ll need to ace the super week and hope that Roccat loses all of their matches. Then they’ll be required to beat Roccat in a Bo1 match for their lives, where the loser will be sent to the relegation bin. Extremely unlikely, but stranger things have happened and it’s never good to underestimate the underdog.

What does it mean for Gamescom?

The only two teams who have yet to be placed in either category are Roccat and Copenhagen Wolves. The rest have already secured their spots either at Gamescom or in the pit that is relegation. Alliance will be receiving a bye in the semifinal round of the EU Regional Finals alongside either Fnatic or SHC but, though incredibly unlikely, Millenium and SK Gaming also have an incredibly slight chance to secure a bye. Editors Note: There was a statistical inaccuracy in this article related to the record of CLG vs Dignitas match history. This has been removed.

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