Who is the best team in North America?
Riot·7/10/2014, 11:25:51 PM·1 votes·12,833 views
Editors Note: This is an editorial and doesn't necessarily reflect the opinion of Riot.
As we round the corner of Week 7 Super Week into the tail end of the season, North America looks more and more like last split’s Europe, with 4 teams tied for 1st place, and two teams snapping at their heels. Well, the top 6 is probably set in stone, with compLexity and EG running out of time to mount a comeback. But the top of the scene is going to be hard to predict, with 4 teams tied for No. 1. With that, we turn to future schedule difficulty and head-to-head matchups.
Every team will play every other team 1 more time, with an additional 1 game against 3 other teams. So when we’re talking about schedule difficulty, we’re really concerned with those last 3 teams, or what I’m going to call their “bonus games”. So who has the hardest and easiest schedules? The chart below ranks the relative difficulties of schedules for each team. Schedule difficulties vary from +7 to -7, representative of how many wins or losses their schedule is away from .500. A higher number translates to a harder schedule, while a low number gives teams breathing room on their way to the playoffs.
Once they’re in the playoffs, it’s more important which of the top teams you can beat. Being 4-0 vs EG and compLexity doesn’t mean much when you won’t have to play against them, after all. How do the top teams perform against each other?
What’s interesting is this: despite all of the teams being very close in records, their records against each other vary wildly. Cloud9 and Dignitas are the only teams with a record of above .500 against the other teams! With that in mind, who are the choice candidates to take home the top spots in North America?
A week ago, Curse Gaming was just another team at the bottom of the standings. We’ve been hearing in interviews that Curse tends to win in scrims, but they have yet to perform in the LCS, and it was looking like yet another split where Curse beats out the lower teams, but can’t really take down the top teams. They came into Super Week with a monster schedule, facing TSM, LMQ, Cloud9, and CLG. Instead of rolling over and moving on for the next season, however, they went 3-1, falling only to TSM.
Curse is now 2-1 against CLG and LMQ, and .500 against the top 5 teams of NA LCS. The only top team they haven’t taken at least one game off of is TSM They’re by no means the favorites, but they look like yet another team vying to upset the two-time defending champions Cloud9.
And the news only gets better for them. Their future schedule is the easiest of any other team (tied with Cloud9). It may be too little too late, however, as they have to make up 3 games to break into the top 4. Their 3-1 in the Super Week is a good start, but they still have ground to make up. However, while they are my #6 pick, climbing into the top 4 isn’t unthinkable if they’re able to close out their easy games vs compLexity and EG and score a few more upsets.
If we’re just looking at the data, TSM looks weaker than Curse, with a worse record against the top teams and a harder upcoming schedule to boot. However, there have really been two TSMs: pre-Locodoco and post-Locodoco. Without Locodoco as their coach, they struggled to a 4-4 record. Since the introduction of Locodoco, they have gone 7-3. Don’t overstate the strength of new TSM, though. Their 7-3 record was fueled by a 4-0 record vs compLexity and EG. In fact, disregard their 3-0s vs Curse, compLexity, and EG, and they are currently 2-5. They still need to show that they can perform against the top teams, and for that reason they stay out of the top 4.
Gentleman Gustaf, how can you put LMQ at the #4 spot?
Don’t get me wrong, LMQ is a great team, and the gap between them and the next highest teams is painfully small. Their schedule is slightly easier than Dignitas’ schedule, but they face Dignitas twice, and are currently 0-2 against them. All Dignitas has to do is go 1-1 against them to earn the tiebreaker advantage, and that alone puts LMQ at a disadvantage.
Dignitas fills the gap between TSM/LMQ and CLG/Cloud9, as they are 5-0 vs TSM/LMQ, but only 1-4 vs Cloud9/CLG. As a result of their dominant showings against TSM and LMQ, they have the second-highest record vs the top teams, 7-5. As well, their upcoming record is almost entirely even.
For many splits, CLG has been stuck in second place to TSM. Last split, they looked poised to take TSM down after a 1-0 start in their playoff series, but threw game 2 and seemed demoralized on their way to a 1-2 loss. However, for the first time, CLG is in a position not only to beat out TSM, but also to be the No. 1 team in North America.
And their motivation will be strong. Link and Doublelift both got a taste of international experience at AllStars, and you can bet they’ll be hungry for a top 3 finish and a trip to the World Championship.
Their schedule is slightly easier, and they have the 3rd top record vs the top teams, 6-7. On top of that, they have a 2-0 record against Dignitas.
Gentleman Gustaf, How can you call Cloud9 the top North American team?”
It seems every day we hear a new reason why Cloud9 has fallen from their Olympian perch.
”Balls isn’t getting to 1v1.” “The scene has caught up to them.” “Meteos’ jungle style is outdated.” “LemonNation makes too many early mistakes.” “Hai is still recovering from his time off.” “The team synergy is gone.”
But one point seems to have fallen by the wayside. Gods do not die quickly or easily. When Zeus comes down from the clouds, he may walk and talk like a man, but he’s still Zeus.
To hear the criticism aimed their way, you’d think Cloud9 was 6-12; they are only one game back from the 1st game tie at 10-8. Against the top teams of the league, Cloud9 is still top dog, with a 2-1 record against CLG, CRS, DIG, and LMQ, and a 1-1 record against TSM, for a grand total of 9-5.
The next best team against the top teams is Dignitas (7-5), and every other team is under .500 vs the other top teams. In fact, the only team with a winning record vs Cloud9 is the 6-12 Complexity. So they’re 1-3 against Complexity and EG. Are they going to face them in the playoffs? Then who cares.
And the news only gets better for them. Their future schedule is the easiest of any other team (tied with Curse), with 2 games against EG and CoL (although we may question whether this really is an easy matchup for Cloud9...).
Finally, they have playoffs experience over other NA teams, with a 10-0 NA LCS playoffs record over two splits. Even if they don’t take the #1 spot in the season, their experience in best-of-threes and best-of-fives makes them a strong contestant for a top 3 spot and a trip to the World Championships.
The top 4 spots are extremely close, and so it will ultimately come down to tiebreakers. This skews placements in favor of Cloud9 and Dignitas, who have performed very well against the other top teams. The next games between the top teams could not matter before, with tiebreakers and momentum on the line, not to mention playoff matchups.
Once they’re in the playoffs, it’s more important which of the top teams you can beat. Being 4-0 vs EG and compLexity doesn’t mean much when you won’t have to play against them, after all. How do the top teams perform against each other?
What’s interesting is this: despite all of the teams being very close in records, their records against each other vary wildly. Cloud9 and Dignitas are the only teams with a record of above .500 against the other teams! With that in mind, who are the choice candidates to take home the top spots in North America?
#6, The Cinderella Story - Curse
A week ago, Curse Gaming was just another team at the bottom of the standings. We’ve been hearing in interviews that Curse tends to win in scrims, but they have yet to perform in the LCS, and it was looking like yet another split where Curse beats out the lower teams, but can’t really take down the top teams. They came into Super Week with a monster schedule, facing TSM, LMQ, Cloud9, and CLG. Instead of rolling over and moving on for the next season, however, they went 3-1, falling only to TSM.
Curse is now 2-1 against CLG and LMQ, and .500 against the top 5 teams of NA LCS. The only top team they haven’t taken at least one game off of is TSM They’re by no means the favorites, but they look like yet another team vying to upset the two-time defending champions Cloud9.
And the news only gets better for them. Their future schedule is the easiest of any other team (tied with Cloud9). It may be too little too late, however, as they have to make up 3 games to break into the top 4. Their 3-1 in the Super Week is a good start, but they still have ground to make up. However, while they are my #6 pick, climbing into the top 4 isn’t unthinkable if they’re able to close out their easy games vs compLexity and EG and score a few more upsets.
#5, The Old Favorites - Team SoloMid
If we’re just looking at the data, TSM looks weaker than Curse, with a worse record against the top teams and a harder upcoming schedule to boot. However, there have really been two TSMs: pre-Locodoco and post-Locodoco. Without Locodoco as their coach, they struggled to a 4-4 record. Since the introduction of Locodoco, they have gone 7-3. Don’t overstate the strength of new TSM, though. Their 7-3 record was fueled by a 4-0 record vs compLexity and EG. In fact, disregard their 3-0s vs Curse, compLexity, and EG, and they are currently 2-5. They still need to show that they can perform against the top teams, and for that reason they stay out of the top 4.
#4, The Asian Sensation - LMQ
Gentleman Gustaf, how can you put LMQ at the #4 spot?
Don’t get me wrong, LMQ is a great team, and the gap between them and the next highest teams is painfully small. Their schedule is slightly easier than Dignitas’ schedule, but they face Dignitas twice, and are currently 0-2 against them. All Dignitas has to do is go 1-1 against them to earn the tiebreaker advantage, and that alone puts LMQ at a disadvantage.
#3, The NA Super Team - Dignitas
Dignitas fills the gap between TSM/LMQ and CLG/Cloud9, as they are 5-0 vs TSM/LMQ, but only 1-4 vs Cloud9/CLG. As a result of their dominant showings against TSM and LMQ, they have the second-highest record vs the top teams, 7-5. As well, their upcoming record is almost entirely even.
#2, The Second Fiddle - Counter Logic Gaming
For many splits, CLG has been stuck in second place to TSM. Last split, they looked poised to take TSM down after a 1-0 start in their playoff series, but threw game 2 and seemed demoralized on their way to a 1-2 loss. However, for the first time, CLG is in a position not only to beat out TSM, but also to be the No. 1 team in North America.
And their motivation will be strong. Link and Doublelift both got a taste of international experience at AllStars, and you can bet they’ll be hungry for a top 3 finish and a trip to the World Championship.
Their schedule is slightly easier, and they have the 3rd top record vs the top teams, 6-7. On top of that, they have a 2-0 record against Dignitas.
#1, The Defending Champions - Cloud9
Gentleman Gustaf, How can you call Cloud9 the top North American team?”
It seems every day we hear a new reason why Cloud9 has fallen from their Olympian perch.
”Balls isn’t getting to 1v1.” “The scene has caught up to them.” “Meteos’ jungle style is outdated.” “LemonNation makes too many early mistakes.” “Hai is still recovering from his time off.” “The team synergy is gone.”
But one point seems to have fallen by the wayside. Gods do not die quickly or easily. When Zeus comes down from the clouds, he may walk and talk like a man, but he’s still Zeus.
To hear the criticism aimed their way, you’d think Cloud9 was 6-12; they are only one game back from the 1st game tie at 10-8. Against the top teams of the league, Cloud9 is still top dog, with a 2-1 record against CLG, CRS, DIG, and LMQ, and a 1-1 record against TSM, for a grand total of 9-5.
The next best team against the top teams is Dignitas (7-5), and every other team is under .500 vs the other top teams. In fact, the only team with a winning record vs Cloud9 is the 6-12 Complexity. So they’re 1-3 against Complexity and EG. Are they going to face them in the playoffs? Then who cares.
And the news only gets better for them. Their future schedule is the easiest of any other team (tied with Curse), with 2 games against EG and CoL (although we may question whether this really is an easy matchup for Cloud9...).
Finally, they have playoffs experience over other NA teams, with a 10-0 NA LCS playoffs record over two splits. Even if they don’t take the #1 spot in the season, their experience in best-of-threes and best-of-fives makes them a strong contestant for a top 3 spot and a trip to the World Championships.
Every Inch Counts
The top 4 spots are extremely close, and so it will ultimately come down to tiebreakers. This skews placements in favor of Cloud9 and Dignitas, who have performed very well against the other top teams. The next games between the top teams could not matter before, with tiebreakers and momentum on the line, not to mention playoff matchups.
