Fantasy Strategy: Picks to be Wary of
Riot·5/15/2014, 10:50:12 PM·0 votes·6,908 views
We all have favorite players and teams that we want to draft in our LCS fantasy league. But if you want the best chance to win your league, you have to rely on stats. And sometimes the facts surprise you.
These are the five most overrated draft picks going into the Summer Split. Players on this list should still be drafted, and sometimes drafted very highly, but you need to be wary of overinflating their importance to your victory plan. There are other options that have slightly lower projections but could end up having stronger seasons.
WildTurtle was the No. 2 fantasy LCS player in the spring split, averaging 24.1 points per game (Bjergsen was No. 1 with 24.2). But we’re going to see a very different TSM in summer, and there are plenty of reasons to doubt if WildTurtle (No. 5 projected ADC in summer) will be able to repeat those record-setting numbers.
The most obvious is the departure of his bot-lane partner, Xpecial, who was the second-best support in the LCS last split (19 pts/game). Xpecial is a top-tier support player whose consistent play-making and shot-calling unquestionably improved WildTurtle’s value as an AD carry. Xpecial’s replacement, Gleebglarbu, did well in the Challenger series on Cloud 9 Tempest, but playing against higher caliber teams will be a much different experience.
TSM’s other big roster change — replacing the team’s longstanding Jungler TheOddOne with Amazing — is more likely to impact Bjergsen’s laning performance than WildTurtle’s. But it’s still one more risk that could potentially hurt WildTurtle’s stats this split.
On top of the teamwork concerns, the competition in NA is getting better every day. If TSM's success rate drops at all this split, so will WildTurtle's stats.
Skills, personality, popularity, and even KDA don't always translate into fantasy point ranking.
Diamond is a terrific player and one of the most consistent performers on Gambit Gaming. He even had the second-highest KDA of any EU Jungler last split (3.46).
Despite that, his fantasy stats are low. He was the #10 fantasy LCS Jungler last split (#53 overall). His average points per game was only 15.3, far below Meteos's 22.5 and only 1.5 points per game above XDG's much-maligned Jungler/ADC Zuna (13.8 avg as Jungler).
The news of Alex Ich leaving Gambit Gaming will hinder any hope for improvement in Diamond's stats this split. He's likely in for a rough ride, but he's popular enough that someone in your league will still want to draft him early. Let them.
Cloud 9 finished last split as the #1 fantasy team in the LCS, averaging 14.96 points per game. Many first-time fantasy drafters will stop there and rush to draft them early. But knowing the stats for the rest of your options at that roster spot is key.
Every roster has to start one collective team, which accounts for shared objectives like Dragons and tower kills. It's unlikely that more than 10 total teams will be drafted, and the difference in average points between the #1 team (C9, 14.9) and the #10 team (Gambit, 10.8) is only 4.1!
To reach that same point gap (4.1) in other positions, you typically only have to reach to the 3rd or 4th best players. The difference between the No. 1 player and No. 10 in the other five categories is, on average, a 7.2 point gap.
That means that the team position is, by a wide margin, the least competitive roster position you will be drafting. You can draft your team in the last round and give up only 4 points per game to someone who picked a team with their very first pick.
Spend your early and mid draft picks on the more competitive positions to grab the best options while they're still available. There'll be plenty of time to grab a decent team late.
This is another case of a player's fantasy points not quite living up to their in-game effectiveness. Overpow was effective throughout most of the split. He ended as EU's #4 Mid laner in KDA (3.62), and looked very strong in the playoffs and helped carry ROCCAT to third place.
ROCCAT hype was high for most of the split, and it'll be tempting to draft Overpow as your Mid laner once all the big headliners like Bjergsen and xPeke are gone.
But keep this in mind before you do: Overpow was actually the #12 fantasy Mid laner last split (#45 overall). He averaged 15.1 points per game, only 0.5 more points per game than EG's Pobelter. A major question mark heading into the summer split is whether can ROCCAT produce huge fantasy performances that can back up all the hype they received in their debut. In fact, none of ROCCAT's players ranked higher than 12th for their respective position during the spring split.
When Dignitas announced they'd picked up two of Coast's best players to add to their roster, fans broke the hype meter on LoLesports.com, Twitter, Reddit, and anything else that let them post comments.
And while it's entirely possible that Crumbzz and Shiphtur will unite into some form of transformer-style mecha-mid lane that dominates the entirety of the LCS, that's not the sort of prediction you want to base your draft picks on.
ZionSpartan put up great fantasy numbers last split, even on a losing team. He was the #7 Top laner, averaging 14.8 points per game. Players on winning teams get more points, and it seems extremely likely that Dignitas will be winning more than Coast did.
So why not buy into the hype of a powerful ZionSpartan on a new team likely to win more games? Because everyone else already has.
By now, everyone you're drafting with has heard the hype and thought about ZionSpartan's potential if Dignitas excels. At least one of them will draft ZionSpartan and new transfers like him in early rounds because of it.
Taking him early enough to beat out the hype will only further magnify the risk you're taking on by picking a new transfer to a team that's had a rocky history lately.
Josh Augustine's favorite champion is Thresh, he's never enjoyed a Darius, and he will always go for the kill, even when he knows he shouldn't. He currently works as a game designer on EverQuest Next at Sony Online Entertainment. He’d love to talk with you on Twitter.
WildTurtle (TSM, AD Carry)
WildTurtle was the No. 2 fantasy LCS player in the spring split, averaging 24.1 points per game (Bjergsen was No. 1 with 24.2). But we’re going to see a very different TSM in summer, and there are plenty of reasons to doubt if WildTurtle (No. 5 projected ADC in summer) will be able to repeat those record-setting numbers.
The most obvious is the departure of his bot-lane partner, Xpecial, who was the second-best support in the LCS last split (19 pts/game). Xpecial is a top-tier support player whose consistent play-making and shot-calling unquestionably improved WildTurtle’s value as an AD carry. Xpecial’s replacement, Gleebglarbu, did well in the Challenger series on Cloud 9 Tempest, but playing against higher caliber teams will be a much different experience.
TSM’s other big roster change — replacing the team’s longstanding Jungler TheOddOne with Amazing — is more likely to impact Bjergsen’s laning performance than WildTurtle’s. But it’s still one more risk that could potentially hurt WildTurtle’s stats this split.
On top of the teamwork concerns, the competition in NA is getting better every day. If TSM's success rate drops at all this split, so will WildTurtle's stats.
Diamond (Gambit, Jungle)
Skills, personality, popularity, and even KDA don't always translate into fantasy point ranking.
Diamond is a terrific player and one of the most consistent performers on Gambit Gaming. He even had the second-highest KDA of any EU Jungler last split (3.46).
Despite that, his fantasy stats are low. He was the #10 fantasy LCS Jungler last split (#53 overall). His average points per game was only 15.3, far below Meteos's 22.5 and only 1.5 points per game above XDG's much-maligned Jungler/ADC Zuna (13.8 avg as Jungler).
The news of Alex Ich leaving Gambit Gaming will hinder any hope for improvement in Diamond's stats this split. He's likely in for a rough ride, but he's popular enough that someone in your league will still want to draft him early. Let them.
Cloud 9 (Team)
Cloud 9 finished last split as the #1 fantasy team in the LCS, averaging 14.96 points per game. Many first-time fantasy drafters will stop there and rush to draft them early. But knowing the stats for the rest of your options at that roster spot is key.
Every roster has to start one collective team, which accounts for shared objectives like Dragons and tower kills. It's unlikely that more than 10 total teams will be drafted, and the difference in average points between the #1 team (C9, 14.9) and the #10 team (Gambit, 10.8) is only 4.1!
To reach that same point gap (4.1) in other positions, you typically only have to reach to the 3rd or 4th best players. The difference between the No. 1 player and No. 10 in the other five categories is, on average, a 7.2 point gap.
That means that the team position is, by a wide margin, the least competitive roster position you will be drafting. You can draft your team in the last round and give up only 4 points per game to someone who picked a team with their very first pick.
Spend your early and mid draft picks on the more competitive positions to grab the best options while they're still available. There'll be plenty of time to grab a decent team late.
Overpow (ROCCAT, Mid)
This is another case of a player's fantasy points not quite living up to their in-game effectiveness. Overpow was effective throughout most of the split. He ended as EU's #4 Mid laner in KDA (3.62), and looked very strong in the playoffs and helped carry ROCCAT to third place.
ROCCAT hype was high for most of the split, and it'll be tempting to draft Overpow as your Mid laner once all the big headliners like Bjergsen and xPeke are gone.
But keep this in mind before you do: Overpow was actually the #12 fantasy Mid laner last split (#45 overall). He averaged 15.1 points per game, only 0.5 more points per game than EG's Pobelter. A major question mark heading into the summer split is whether can ROCCAT produce huge fantasy performances that can back up all the hype they received in their debut. In fact, none of ROCCAT's players ranked higher than 12th for their respective position during the spring split.
ZionSpartan (Dignitas, Top)
When Dignitas announced they'd picked up two of Coast's best players to add to their roster, fans broke the hype meter on LoLesports.com, Twitter, Reddit, and anything else that let them post comments.
And while it's entirely possible that Crumbzz and Shiphtur will unite into some form of transformer-style mecha-mid lane that dominates the entirety of the LCS, that's not the sort of prediction you want to base your draft picks on.
ZionSpartan put up great fantasy numbers last split, even on a losing team. He was the #7 Top laner, averaging 14.8 points per game. Players on winning teams get more points, and it seems extremely likely that Dignitas will be winning more than Coast did.
So why not buy into the hype of a powerful ZionSpartan on a new team likely to win more games? Because everyone else already has.
By now, everyone you're drafting with has heard the hype and thought about ZionSpartan's potential if Dignitas excels. At least one of them will draft ZionSpartan and new transfers like him in early rounds because of it.
Taking him early enough to beat out the hype will only further magnify the risk you're taking on by picking a new transfer to a team that's had a rocky history lately.
Josh Augustine's favorite champion is Thresh, he's never enjoyed a Darius, and he will always go for the kill, even when he knows he shouldn't. He currently works as a game designer on EverQuest Next at Sony Online Entertainment. He’d love to talk with you on Twitter.
i had kerp in my alternates today....... :(
