A funny thing about pick'ems

Linna Excel·Oct 29, 2017·6 votes·1,044 views

Somehow nearly 6,000 people managed to get every pick wrong, but no one managed to get every pick right.

You'd think those two numbers would be a little more closer together. Especially if people were randomly picking.

22 Comments

ChompyWulfOct 29, 20177 votes

6000 people who never watch pros filled out a pick'em because there was a mission for it. On the other hand, lots of people were predicting TSM getting to quarters, many had LZ over SSG, others predicted RNG over SKT, and of course NA fans thought C9 would beat WE.

FlitcheeOct 29, 20171 votes

C9 Very well could have beaten WE. Went to game 5.

ChompyWulfOct 29, 20172 votes

I'm not saying it was impossible for C9 to win, but meant to imply a fair number of people made that prediction with their heart rather than their head, and was one of several matches that were major breaking points in what otherwise may have been correct bracket picks.

Velzard of KozOct 29, 20172 votes

If I'm not mistaken nothing weird on that - there should be slightly higher amount of 0-point combinations thus making it having higher chance of having all picks wrong than right.

MysterQOct 29, 20171 votes

0 point is almost only possible if you leave it blank.

You would have to purposefully try REALLY hard to get to 0.

Velzard of KozOct 29, 20171 votes

I'm talking about math. I believe there is higher amount of cases to have picks wrong (more combinations) than right, If I'm not mistaken, which makes it higher chance.

FableBlazeOct 29, 20172 votes

You are correct. There is only one 100% correct combination. And there are clearly multiple combinations that result in 0%. For example if you pick all the quarterfinals wrong, than every possible combination that you could pick for semis will result in 0 points.

It is still really difficult to get everything wrong, but it is easier than getting everything right. Simple combinatorics really.

Sagan ForeverOct 31, 20172 votes

Actually only 29 people completely fails the bracket stage leaving essentially all of the failures to be from the group stage. In the group stage itself you have a 50% 50% shot and equal cases to be correct and incorrect in the quarter finals. But of corse if you fail the quarter finals then you cannot win he other areas which would screw you over.

Kirius DarkOct 29, 20172 votes

Once you get all of the quarter finals wrong you automatically get the rest of the knockout stage wrong whereas if you get them right you need to get everything else right so the odds of all wrong is much higher and easier

ShadòwOct 29, 20172 votes

I'm actually pretty sure a higher % would get a perfect pick'em if everyone would just completely randomize it and leave it like that.

DarkRoosterNov 1, 20171 votes

Exactly

BlueThingamajigNov 1, 20171 votes

Edit: My math was quite wrong. See Shadow's post below for the correct math.

azsympylenkurNov 1, 20171 votes

I think you have a flaw in the way you calculate the chance for group stage. That number must be way higher

BlueThingamajigNov 1, 20171 votes

Edit: Deleted because I was completely wrong in my math. Shadow is it right, in that it should be (1/24)^4, not (1/24x4) for the group stage.

ShadòwNov 1, 20171 votes

There are actually way more possible ways I believe.

First, you have 4! = 24 possible outcomes for each group.

But you would have to calculate it like this after that: 24^4 = 331,776 possible outcomes exist just for group stage.

Then you move on to quarters with 16 teams.

You have 2^4 = 16 different outcomes from quarters, 2^2 = 4 different outcomes from semis and 2^1 = 2 from finals.

So the knockout stage has 16 x 4 x 2 = 128 outcomes.

That multiplied with the possible outcomes from group stage gives you 331,776 x 128 = 42,467,328 possible ways the teams could play out.

The actual chance that no one out of 5.3 million random suggestions gets a perfect pick is over 88%, while the chance that 1 or more people get one is below 12%.

So maybe it isn't true after all that we would get a higher % if everybody would pick random, but a chance would be there at least.

BlueThingamajigNov 1, 20171 votes

You know what

You're completely right. I screwed up the group stage calculation, and you did it correctly. I'm just going to delete my post.

GoodwillOct 29, 20171 votes

6000 isn't even a lot of people

VoidStaresBackOct 29, 20171 votes

people can leave the second set blank, and thus have no chance of gaining points from the knock-out stage, which is probably how a lot of them maintained their 0 points.

Ya Bois TimbsNov 1, 20171 votes

well nobody expected LongZhu to flop like that

i think thats the real kicker

MysterQNov 1, 20171 votes

Not 0-3, but 17% took the chance of SSG coming out on top. I was saying it a few days before picks were locked that SSG > LZ. But I thought it would be closer games.

Ya Bois TimbsNov 1, 20171 votes

well yeah and you'd have to get everything right still

MysterQNov 1, 20171 votes

I have literally only missed 1 pick (GAM/IMT which works into 2 picks and bonus points??). I have been a Blue Sentinel for the entire knockout stage.

I mean in the end, it doesn't matter because there was no prize once I missed GAM3rd. But it is sad, no chance for another prize. Sill placed behind a bunch of people even though I got the SSG call correct. Meh.