Fantasy Love/Hate: Week 9
This is it. The final week of Fantasy LCS for the 2015 Summer Split. The only schedule that matters now is this week's schedule.
This is the week you try whatever desperate trades you need to solidify your spot at the top of the standings, or go for the last-minute upset. This is the week studs get dropped because they have one bad matchup. This is the week you drop Petter "Hjärnan" Freyschuss to pick up Zachary "Sneaky" Scuderi.
Let's see what late tricks we have up our sleeves this week.
For Fantasy Week 9, We Love...
Sneaky (vs. Team SoloMid, Team Dragon Knights)
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This is the moment C9 drafters have been waiting for! Finally, those 8 weeks on your bench are paying off -- it's time to start Sneaky!
Over the past two weeks, Sneaky has been averaging 26 points per game, despite only going 2-2 in that time. He was the #6 ADC in Week 7 and #4 in Week 8, thanks to dominant wins over Enemy Esports and Team Dignitas.
Even if tipsy Team SoloMid manages to give the revitalized Cloud9 crew trouble, that juicy TDK matchup should give more than enough points to make Sneaky an attractive pick-up option.
TSM and TDK have given opposing ADCs 28 points, on average in their last 8 games! Opposing ADCs have only died once per game, on average -- so there shouldn't be many negative points weighing down Sneaky's score.
Other lanes might be riskier starts. Nicolaj "Incarnati0n" Jensen is facing the strongest players on both opposing teams, Noh "Ninja" Geon-woo and Søren "Bjergsen" Bjerg. But Sneaky should all sorts of room to show off in bot lane.
Febiven (vs. SK Gaming, Unicorns of Love)
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Fnatic's fantasy points dropped down last week, but don't let that scare you away from starting them this week. Look back at those stable score histories and remind yourself: This is not a stud player you want to bench.
Especially this week. This is a good schedule, with just enough chaos and challenge to hopefully extend out the games and make sure they have to force some team fights and pick up a bloody pile of fantasy points.
So let yourself believe in the flawless Fnatic season! Fabian "Febiven" Diepstraten scored 55 combined points against these teams the last time they faced off, and there's no player in the LCS that I'd be more willing to bet my fantasy championship hopes on this week.
Freeze (vs. ROCCAT, GIANTS Gaming)
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Aleš "Freeze" Kněžínek showed up big for the Copenhagen Wolves -- and that one guy that started him on accident -- last week. And I think he can survive the CAPS LOCK GAUNTLET this week too. (Seriously, do LCS teams think putting their name in caps makes them more intimidating?)
Copenhagen Wolves pulled a big upset over H2K last week, but that match appeared to say more about to H2K's weakness than CW's strength. I don't expect them to stomp either of these teams this week, but I think they should be able to host long games where they win at least some of the team fights.
Freeze reminded us last week that he can carry his squad when he needs to, and he's already proven that he can score big against these two teams (51 combined points earlier this split). Betting on CW has proven to be very risky this split, but there's a ton of upside here for fantasy dreamers to tap into.
But We Hate...
CandyPanda (vs. Fnatic, Elements)
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SK Gaming has given owners some awesome fantasy weeks this Split, with multiple 50+ offerings that carried our rosters. But this is the end of the line for ADC Adrian "CandyPanda" Wübbelmann owners.
CandyPanda missed the memo about winning last week, and stayed down at a weak 27-point total (the lowest on his team) while his teammates rocketed back up past 30, 40, and 50 points again! And this week's schedule doesn't offer hope of anything better.
Of course, it's always possible that SK manages to upset Fnatic in their very final game of the Split, but that's not a bet I'm willing to take.
Seraph (vs. Cloud9, Gravity)
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We've already acknowledged that this is a week for desperate plays in Fantasy LCS. This is your official warning that there are still some off-limits areas (like the suddenly ADC-less Gambit Gaming).
Shin "Seraph" Wu-Yeong saw a great spike in his fantasy points last week and earned owners 40 points. That's awesome!
But we can't just look at one week when we're making make-or-break starter decisions this week. We have to consider the past. Here are his weekly scores from the beginning of the season: 28, 25, 17, 15, 14, 20, 23, 40.
That's way too many low weeks to contemplate starting him against the revitalized C9 and steadfast Gravity.
Gravity will win. And when C9 has won since Hai's return, they've won hard. When they beat Dignitas, they gave the enemy top laner 0 kills and only 1 assist -- a fantasy owner's nightmare. Even Enemy Esports' dive-happy Cuong "Flaresz" Ta had to pay 7 deaths just to get a measly 2 kills and 4 assists in their loss to C9.
If you're looking for an emergency top replacement, take a deep breath and look again. There should be better options out there for pickup, like Jesper "Jwaow" Strandgren or An "BalIs" Van Le.
Josh Augustine's favorite champion is Nidalee, he's never enjoyed a Darius, and he will always go for the kill, even when he knows he shouldn't. He currently works as a game designer on EverQuest Next at Daybreak Games. He’d love to talk with you on Twitter.
