2016 Spring Split Playoffs situation report
With only two weeks left in the 2016 Spring Split regular season, teams now have only four games left to make sure they get into the Playoffs. In the graphic below, we've broken down what each team has to do to ensure a Playoff berth -- for some, it will be harder than others.
Immortals has the most straightforward road to the Playoffs. Even if Huni decides to join a monastery for the rest of his life and the team loses all four remaining games, IMT is still all but guaranteed a Playoff Bye due to their 2-0 head-to-head record vs. Cloud9. Technically, a three-way tie could knock them out of a Bye, but realistically the only way that IMT doesn't earn the #1 seed is if CLG wins 3 more games than they do, or IMT loses all of it's games. In any case, not likely.
Counter Logic Gaming and Cloud9 are both relatively safe from losing their Playoff spots. CLG mathematically is locked, while C9 can only miss Playoffs if they lose all of their games, and then lose the tiebreaker to Echo Fox or Team Impulse. For the #2 seed and the Playoff Bye, its pretty simple: If Cloud9 wins one more game than CLG, they'll play a tiebreaker. If Cloud9 wins two more games than CLG (or more), they'll win the spot outright. If not then things stay the same... barring some TSM magic.
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TSM would have to heavily outperform both CLG and C9 to earn a Playoff Bye. TSM will force a tiebreaker if they win two more games than CLG, but even if that happens, Cloud9 can still take the spot simply by winning more games than TSM. Meanwhile, TSM has two teams that are just one game behind them in the standings. The danger for TSM, is that the teams ahead of them (C9 & CLG) play the two teams behind them (NRG & TL), and no matter who wins those matches, there's still danger for their spot.
Liquid and NRG are in similar situations, both in their strength of schedule and tie breaker scenarios. They play each other, and also play several of the teams ahead of them. There are way too many tiebreaker scenarios here to run through them all, but the most important match of the week for both teams will be the one against each other. They can significantly improve their seeds by winning their remaining games.
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Echo Fox and Team Impulse have identical records as well, but because Echo Fox has the tiebreaker over TIP, it becomes very hard for TIP to pass FOX due to similar strengths of schedule. Neither team plays against teams they can realistically catch in the standings, making them largely dependent on NRG and Liquid falling at the finish line.
While Team Dignitas technically has a chance, it would take some very unique scenarios where four teams in front of them lose basically every game. They do play against both Liquid and Echo Fox to keep that dream alive, but they also play against the two best teams in the league.
Renegades mathematically has no chance.
Who do you think will be the six Playoff teams? Let us know on Twitter or in the comments below.
