World Championships 2014 Blue Side Win Rate

AncientPhoenix·9/29/2014, 1:22:08 AM·4 votes·2,349 views

After watching the Cloud 9 vs. Najin Shield rematch, I came to the realization that North America's greatest chance of getting out of the Quarterfinals successfully died on a coin flip. Knowing that Cloud 9 suffers while not on blue side, due to Hai's champion pool being easier to attack when C9 is on red side, I found it odd that C9 should be the only team to suffer from such a situation. So, I looked at the blue side vs. red side win rate throughout the entirety of the group stages. First, I found that, out of 50 games played during the group stage, blue side won 33 times. That's a 66% win rate for all of group stages. But, let's just focus on perhaps the most even group in terms of skill: Group D. Group D was the only group to have its first seed drop 2 games over the course of the group and, even though KaBum was at a clear disadvantage, Najin Shield, Alliance, and Cloud Nine are all relatively equal. In Group D, blue side won 11 out of 13 games played (an 85% win rate). If you disregard KaBum as underdogs, blue side wins all 7 games. Another interesting thing to note is that every major upset, bar one, that happened over the course of the group stage happened when the team that was counted out of the running was playing on blue side. AHQ beat EDG on blue side. TSM beat Royal on blue side. SK beat TSM on blue side. TPA beat SK on blue side (this one's a little shaky since SK still wasn't playing with their regular roster at the time, but since TPA only won one game I counted it). KBM beat ALL on blue side. The only upset that didn't happen on blue side was Fnatic beating Samsung Blue. However, Fnatic is a bit of an odd case. If you look at their win rate in groups, they won 0 out of 3 games on blue side and 2 out of 3 games on red side. So, I guess I'll finally get to the point. I know that the whole "Blue-Side" controversy has been around for a while, but I don't necessarily agree with the standard support that's given for it. Most people complain about the mirrored map being chosen over a symmetric one, or the camera perspective. I, however, believe that this disparity (especially in competitive matches) comes from the advantage that having the first pick gives you. For almost every team, having first pick frees you up to target-ban opposing players or ban champions that your team is simply uncomfortable with. Meanwhile, the opposing team is forced to ban whatever they feel are the strongest champions that they absolutely can't let their opponents have, lest they give their opponents an immense advantage. First move advantage has always been a big question in turn-based competitive games. If you look at Chess, White has a 55% win rate at the tournament level. The only reason that this disparity isn't larger is because the person playing Black usually knows that they're at a disadvantage and start from the beginning with the intention of causing a stalemate. In Go, perhaps the most balanced game of all time, there have been professional players that were utterly convinced that having the first move in a match would guarantee them the victory. All of this leaves a few questions to be asked. Firstly, how can we go about balancing champion select to lessen the impact of first move advantage? Secondly, we can see that some teams like Fnatic have an opposite effect on the side win rate. Why is it that these teams seem to experience a similar phenomenon, only in reverse? I don't have the answers to these questions, so the point of making this is to see what other people thought about these two big question marks.

13 Comments

RoyaiChaos9/29/2014, 4:06:37 AM3 votes

I win more on purple side than on blue side.... Maybe it just feels that way, but most of my stomps are on purple side, and everytime I get stomped is on the blue side.

ValyrianBlade9/29/2014, 1:59:39 AM2 votes

first, it's a small sample size. As valid as arguments are, This small of a sample is never enough.

That said, all of the arguments are likely valid. Dragon can be taken quickly before a team can react whereas Baron takes more time. Blue has easier access to Baron and hence gains an advantage from that. More importantly though, to your topic of first pick. The way teams play, you're right. There's a reason fnatic is an exception though, and I would argue it is because other teams ban WRONG. They have all of this skill and experience with the game and never take advantage of LAST BAN. Last ban is much more valuable than first pick.

To illustrate, suppose after the first 3 bans there are 4 'power champions' left available. What almost always seems to happen is purple's second ban is used on one of the 4, then blue bans one, then purple bans another leaving blue with the last power pick (blue also got to use their first 2 bans on comfort picks as opposed to 1 for purple). What purple should be doing is taking a second comfort ban, if blue bans power then purple takes a third comfort ban and if blue does a third comfort purple does power. In either case here, purple gets 2 out of 3 power picks (and also gets to counter whatever non power picks blue chooses next). The beautiful thing is it doesn't need to be 4 power picks available, at any number of power picks purple can guarantee they get at least half of them. so unless there are huge discrepancies in between each power pick, the last ban advantage is larger than the first pick advantage. However I never see any team (except possibly fnatic) take advantage of this.

NeroUS9/29/2014, 5:10:30 AM1 votes

There have been a number of articles on Blue v Purple;

  • Over Soloque all levels Blue enjoys a 55% win-rate
  • Purple tends to enjoy an early gold advantage/more dragons
Wullf9/29/2014, 1:43:12 PM1 votes

That is very interesting and deserves at least some digging and answering.

Earl Eulrich9/29/2014, 1:48:43 PM1 votes

No doubt the pick&ban-pahse could need some major rework - though I think it´s alright to expect that someone that wants to win the world championship should be able to play more than just a few champs flawlessly. And C9 just screwed their second rotation...they could have gotten the Zed for Hai but prioritized Nid over it...a pick that wouldn´t have been contested most likely.

And it mostly stems from a major balancing-problem of the worlds-patch, as alistar absolutely has to be banned by purple side in every match..making pick&bans highly predictable for the blue team and favouring the first-pick as you can almost everytime make sure one of the ops you totally want will find the way through pick&bans.

12tales9/29/2014, 1:55:35 PM1 votes

Blue Side advantage is particularly egregious right now because both Zilean and Alistar are ridiculously powerful first picks - it's similar to the dynamic that existed back in the Spring Split of LCS, when Kassadin and Elise basically occupied Red Side's ban slots every game. It's worth mentioning, however, that this is very much meta dependent - in patches where champion balance is much more evenly distributed among the top champions, it's significantly easier for red side to leave P&B with an advantage, thanks to getting 2/3 OPs in the first rotation or counterpicking a solo lane.

That said, even disregarding pick and bans, the advantage that blue side holds on vision control around baron is pretty huge, and red side's coresponding advantage over dragon doesn't really balance it out that effectively.

Shockforce9/29/2014, 1:28:57 AM1 votes

Honestly, it is fine.

The only issue would be tiebreaker matches where it is actually best to do a blind pick skill match-up.

NeroUS9/29/2014, 5:40:31 PM1 votes

I want to point out that it is not just about pick and ban since it is very much a general phenomena in soloque, even at low elo. That's why Riot places a higher MMR team on purple side than they do on blue side, even this doesn't balance it out completely, though.

I think the articles convincingly demonstrate (notably the last) that its about map perspective rather than picks/bans.

There are a lot of good articles on it:

http://team-dignitas.net/articles/blogs/League-of-Legends/4902/Purple-vs.-Blue-Why-Blue-Team-Wins

  • This one suggests it is related to how players perceive their visual space

http://www.reignofgaming.net/blogs/tuck-esports-inquirer/21639-blue-side-vs-purple-inside-the-startling-numbers

  • Interview with Krepo that says its related to bans/dragon/golems; however, this is hard to believe since it is at all elo levels not just pro

http://www.dailydot.com/esports/league-of-legends-red-blue-statistics-win-rate/

  • Best analysis of gold and dragons; shows that red side normally gets ahead in gold in the early game but then blue side wins
  • This article also says that Red side tends to get more priority champion picks than blue, which further undermines the idea that it is about pick/ban
Worgslarg9/29/2014, 1:43:51 AM1 votes

Quite simple. Purple team now gets first ban, blue last ban goes straight into first pick.