MSI - Group Stage Rundown and Predictions
Just when I thought I wouldn't be doing it again, I decided to do it anyway! The first half of MSI is come and passed and we've seen 7 teams go out already. The plus side: none of them went out completely losing. The even more plus side: it can only get better from here...right? My mind is revving up to the group stage in just a couple of days which has me thinking about the 6 teams and what I feel about them coming in.
#SK Telecom T1 - Korea (LCK)#
Defending MSI champions return to the stage to replicate their Worlds 2-peat title. SKT has come off of the victory of what was believed to be their toughest split yet with enemies spread across the LCK table at every turn. Despite that, they once again reign supreme in emphatic fashion with their 5-power player composition - something that more than often doesn't work when called a "Super Team."
To Advance (1st thru 4th): Simply by being the SKT everyone expects of them. No matter where they go, a mark is on their back regardless of what other teams may have brought to the table.
Failure (5th or 6th): BOLD; literally bold given their LCK Spring run. This would take a monumental showing by the other teams not to mention SKT being broken down at the seams; primarily through the jungle in Peanut who in my opinion is the most vulnerable asset to the team's success...if you can outmatch him. But just beating Peanut doesn't win you the world. First you beat Peanut, then a solo lane, then prevent the other powers from getting ahead, then you probably win. And they still have Blank and a coach! That's how unlikely it seems to be for them to even fall out.
#Team WE - China (LPL)# Having been in the dark of international relevance for many seasons, Team WE took their near Worlds ticket and rose it up to a ticket to MSI; at least it's a start. Last we have seen the team internationally was at the IEM World Championships in 2015 where their expectations were pretty much nonexistent and yet they still made 2nd. During the time, WE made the slow roller coaster of an incline following a shift of Chinese powers and the Korean Exodus. And after a long and bloody Spring Split, they find themselves here proving the World Elite once as their name is not something to be forgotten.
To Advance: Show improvement from the regular season and playoffs. While it may not look like something to speak against in their sweep vs RNG in the finals, the majority of the LPL split was just a far from clean or believable show even from the best teams. There's underrating them and then there's using past regional records...of other teams which may not be the exact same.
Failure: As a result of the previous statement, this is also likely. If they did not put the improvement from the spring split into key - working around Condi, Xiye, and maybe Mystic if that's necessary - there's a chance I feel that they can even drop to 6th. Personally I do not want to be too hard on this team compared to the rest of the competition.
#G2 eSports - Europe (EULCS)# Now 3 time domestic champions and with a good year under their belt, G2 returns once again to take a jab at what has eluded them up to this point in time; actual international results to be proud of. With improvements to their infrastructure and coaching staff, G2 has continued to be the team to beat in Europe, even practically using some of their games as a molding tool for the big events of the season.
To Advance: Two ways; not choke, and not play to the mentality of their domestic competition. This showed at the IEM World Championship this year in the result of a collective 0-3 record to the eventual winners in Flash Wolves. The spread of competition throughout Europe was potentially one of the worst among the major regions in my opinion. If anything, they should only draw from the essentials more than the split in whole; none of that learn the late game stuff. G2 needs to prove something now or it's almost hopeless.
Failure: The competition around them reads them like the same sad book they did last year despite everything they've done to improve ever since. I find how well they did in their region rather liable to what could happen, once again going back to the spread of competition mention.
#Flash Wolves - Taiwan/HK/Macao (LMS)# Coming off of a poor showing from last year's Worlds and into a near unstoppable Spring with an IEM World Championship title added to them, FW come into MSI as decisively the second best team at the tournament and probably in the world (at least to my impression - screw hyping Korean teams that didn't and/or don't deliver). FW have improved their team with a new bot laner and as expected, ran through the competition in their region for the second split in a row.
To Advance: Like SKT, there's just too big of a reality that they get out of the group by simply being the team they know they are. They pretty much broke down the door into the Group Stage with that message of "We have arrived" with a small gesture in the corner of the note.
Failure: This very likely comes from their bot lane duo falling apart, leading to a cascade of effects for the rest of the team. This would also take the other teams meeting and surpassing expectations along with beating FW themselves. The odds are more likely than SKT suffering a lapse almost like last year but still less than likely due to how the rest of the teams outside the two are power ranked for this Group Stage.
#TSM - North America (NALCS)# Still at the top of the mountain after what turned out to be the most competitive spring split domestically, TSM comes into MSI with a chip on their shoulder after their short lived Worlds run and a 2015 MSI run fans would really like to forget (I should know...I was there when they lost the opening game). With one change in their roster bring back longtime member in WildTurtle, replacing longtime rival in Doublelift, there would be no problem with seeing this team redeem their region and match CLG's breakout performance...or so we think.
To Advance: Show improvements specifically in their team cohesion AND in their best of 1 matchups; things I respect and trust in C9 and CLG more than I would in TSM in the past year or so. Given the toss up of power among 4 of the 6 teams (added to GAM's stunning performance) they just need to top 2 teams really. How hard could that be?
Failure: Yet another international struggle or just faltering in best of 1 matches. If the Spring Split has taught us anything, it's that this iteration of TSM thrives on series adaptation. Losing to aggression is far too common with them. And this time, I feel hesitant to trust if Bjergsen can actually pull them through if they haven't adapted to the wake up call they got last week.
#Gigabyte Marines - Vietnam/Southeast Asia (GPL)# The surprise out of the Play In stage came from the explosive style of the Marines and their explosive and aggressive play style. Coming from the GPL with an undefeated series record from both the GPL and their Vietnam Circuit in the VCS, this team was one play away from sending shockwaves through the League eSports community by taking down TSM in clean fashion. Unfortunately that did not happen, but they still fought tooth and nail to make their way here.
To Advance: They continue to play to their style, not getting intimidated by the upcoming competition they are about to face. So far, the team lives or dies by their carries, specifically Levi whom caster/analyst Rusty has eluded to as "The best jungler in the tournament when alive." Personally I found this statement true up to this point. Now that point has to be reassessed and hopefully it won't be a complete blowout.
Failure: If the other teams find them out without much of a chance for them to retaliate. Given their near victory vs TSM and the factors that WE and G2 both have, this is considerably a 4 way dance to who falls out the most among them. Their handicap: 15 games of recent analysis. Aggression and raw team orientated SoloQ style can get teams far depending on the degree of the opposition. But now they're in the big leagues. How far can they make the story go?
And that about wraps up my rundown. Making predictions is hard honestly. But I'm going to be a betting man this time around: Gigabyte Marines for playoffs; Flash Wolves 1st in groups. That's all I feel tempted to give. I'm pretty exited about what could happen.
